Climate Change Mitigation What it means for Business

1. Waveney Environment Network 27th January 2005 Climate Change Mitigation What it means for Business • Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre • School of Environmental Sciences

2. Climate Change Mitigation • The facts about Global Warming • Energy Security Issues • The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project • Some examples of good practice • What it means for business • The future

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. Reasons for Concern Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Large Increase Net Negative for all marketsmost Negative for most Regions Higher Risk oC Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Current temperature Risks to Some Negative for some Regions Increase Very Low Risk Historic Average Average 1950 - 1970 I II III IV V I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climatic Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities

5. Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO2 emissions. Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear Nuclear Scenario Gas Scenario Coal Scenario 20% reduction 60% reduction • 20 year growth in demand • 1.8-2% per annum • 2.2% in 2003 Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years

6. Difficult Choices Ahead Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol?

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

10. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 911.562 kWh

11. Solar Thermal Performance - detached house in Norwich Will save about 0.25 tonnes per year From 27th Jan - 15th Sept 2004 average gain 3.16 kWh per day

12. It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

13. Climate Change Mitigation • The facts about Global Warming • Energy Security Issues • The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project • Some examples of good practice • What it means for business • The future

14. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

15. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendantSecurity issues that raises.

16. Our Choices: They are difficult • A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security • [it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when solar energy output is at a peak] BUT: Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption

17. Climate Change Mitigation • The facts about Global Warming • Energy Security Issues • The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project • Some examples of good practice • What it means for business • The future

18. Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

19. UK • Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010 • in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3% • Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh • Revision of Building Regulations brought forward • EU • Biofuels Directive for Transport • 2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 • Carbon Emission Trading - • started on 1st January 2005

21. The CRed ambition To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? “exemplar for the world”

22. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million each year for Norfolk

23. Some facts: • A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging • up to 25 kg CO2 a year • Standby on television > 60 kg per year • Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon) • How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? • 1.6 miles

24. Climate Change Mitigation • The facts about Global Warming • Energy Security Issues • The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project • Some examples of good practice • What it means for business • The future

25. Main Energy Conservation Projects at UEA • Constable Terrace/ Nelson Court Student Residences • Elizabeth Fry Building • Combined Heat and Power • School of Medicine • ZICER Building • The Future - from May 2005 • Absorption Chilling

26. The Elizabeth Fry Building

27. The Elizabeth Fry Building • Termodeck Construction • Air is circulated through whole fabric of building • Heated using a normal domestic heating boiler (24 kW) • No heat supply needed at temperatures as cool as 9oC • Triple glazing with Low Emissivity Glass ~ quadruple glazing • 180 mm insulated cavity • 300 mm roof insulation • 100 mm floor insulation • Air – Pressure Test at 50 Pa – not to exceed 1.0 ach • Actual performance 0.97 ach • Has deteriorated slightly since 1996 • Uses regenerative Heat Exchangers 85% with heat recovery • Exceeds proposed 2005 Regulations • Capital Cost – just 5% more

28. Energy Consumption in Elizabeth Fry The performance of the building has improved with time Heating provided by domestic sized boilers. Energy requirement 20% of good practice for Academic Buildings.

29. Elizabeth Fry: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and User Satisfaction 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ECON 19 Good Practice Type 3 Office kg/m2/annum Elizabeth Fry gas electricity carbon dioxide emissions 96 Elizabeth Fry User Satisfaction thermal comfort +28% air quality +36% lighting +25% noise +26% 44 An energy efficient building reduces carbon dioxide AND is a better building to work in.

30. Projected Performance of ZICER Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of emissions of mid 90’s best practice building Photovoltaic cells will generate ~ 30 kW and save 20 tonnes CO2 per annum.

31. UEA Combined Heat and Power Scheme 86% Efficient

32. UEA CHP Scheme • Until 1999 most heat for space heating was supplied by large boilers • Primary main temperature ~ 110 – 120oC • All electricity imported • Energy bill was in excess of £1 million per year • Three 1 MWe generators are now installed • Provide the majority of the electricity for the campus • Export electricity at periods of low demand • Waste heat is used a primary heat source • Supplemented by existing boilers • CHP has reduced that figure by £400 000 per year

33. UEA CHP Scheme Performance Before Installation: Energy and Carbon Dioxide After Installation: Energy costs cut to £600 000 from £1 000 000 Saving in CO2: 4824 tonnes or 31.9%

34. CHP Review electricity gas oil  total balloons  1997/98 kWh 19895328 35148158 33150 kg/kWh 0.43 0.186 0.277 tonnes 8555.0 6537.6 9.2 15101.7 8390 electricity export import Gener-ation boilers CHP oil total balloons 1999/00 kWh 20436531 977000 5783100 15630431 14510078 28263077 922563 kg/ kWh -0.43 0.43 0.186 0.186 0.277 tonnes -420.1 2486.7 0.0 2698.9 5256.9 255.5 10278.0 5710 Saving in CO2 emissions as a result of CHP - 4824 tonnes CO2 or 31.9% Equivalent to 2680 hot air balloons. [Note: UEA expanded during time and consumption increased so CO2 savings are really higher than this].

35. Desorber Heat from external source Heat Exchanger W ~ 0 Compressor Win High Temperature High Pressure Heat rejected Absorber Condenser Throttle Valve Evaporator Low Temperature Low Pressure Heat extracted for cooling Absorption Heat Pump The Win - Win opportunity More electricity can be generated in summer Less electricity demand in summer > more income for exports

36. Duke Street Renovation • Norwich led the way in 1940’s • First ever Heat Pump • Opportunity now exists to reinstate a heat pump in the same building that John Sumner did his pioneering work. • Heat pump will reduce carbon emissions by 60% and significantly reduces fuel bill. • Provides a cost effective solution - cheaper overall conversion and cheaper to run

37. Duke Street Refurbishment - Heat Losses Tackling heat recovery from ventilation is important

38. Climate Change Mitigation • The facts about Global Warming • Energy Security Issues • The Challenge facing us - the CRed Project • Some examples of good practice • What can businesses do? • The future

39. Energy Consumption heating season No heating season Outside Temperature CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES for Business - Energy Management. •  Technical •  Education •  Energy Management • Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if staff are not educated to use energy wisely. • Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation • A good Energy Manager will:- • Assess Energy Demand - record keeping • Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors • Record Keeping and Analysis • Early warning of poor performance • Can identify strategies to improve performance • Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation • Advertiseand publicise ways to save energy • Accountfor energy consumed A Low Cost Option

40. Government trumpets success of NETA After several years of falling prices, energy prices are rising Electricity Schemes to save energy are becoming increasingly attractive

41. Electricity Gas Recent Trends in Wholesale Prices Retail prices have followed trend in Wholesale prices Gas: 20% increase in last year: Electricity: 14% increase

42. Other Issues • Businesses are already affected by Climatic Change Levy • 0.43p per kWh (electricity) • Moderate sized businesses – e.g. UEA are now being affected by the new EU Emissions Trading System • First Phase (2005 – 2007) Came into force on 1st January 2005. • Could adversely affect UEA by between £20,000 and £80,000 per annum • Phase 2 starts in 2008 and is likely to affect further businesses • Electricity Prices in UK will rise further as this sector has to take brunt of reduction in emissions. • Gas prices are rising • North Sea Output of gas fell by 8% last year • A switch back to coal will see an increase in the number of Carbon Credits which need to be purchased and would push up trading price

43. G-Wiz Electric Car • Can carry 2 ADULTS AND 2 small CHILDREN • Range 40 miles – will improve to around 50+ miles in a year or so • Maximum Speed 40 mph • Running cost ~ 1.5p per mile ~ 500+ miles per gallon equivalent • Around 30% of carbon emissions • NO ROAD TAX: In London: NO CONGESTION CHARGE: • In many car parks – free parking and free charging!

44. Energy Saving: The Carbon Trust www.thecarbontrust.co.uk

45. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy • Examples of Good Practice Low Carbon Applications already exist • It makes sense to take action now • Need to act now otherwise we might indeed have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

46. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm