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The impact of post 2012 climate Policies on European air quality

This study evaluates how different options for post-Kyoto climate policies affect emissions and air pollution across Europe. It explores structural changes in energy use, shifts in emissions between regions, and associated costs. The results show that climate policies can reduce costs and redistribute CO2 emissions to regions with lower abatement costs, with SO2 being more influenced than NOx. The study is initiated by the Nordic Council of Ministers and conducted by CICERO, DMU, IVL, and SYKE, using the GRACE and RAINS models. Preliminary results and options for expansion of scope are also discussed.

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The impact of post 2012 climate Policies on European air quality

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  1. The impact of post 2012 climate Policies on European air quality Kristin Rypdal, CICERO

  2. Objective • To evaluate how options for post-Kyoto climate policies affects emissions and effects of air pollution across Europe • Structural changes in energy use • Shifts in emissions between regions • Costs • Previous studies has shown that climate policies reduces costs and redistribute CO2 emissions to regions where abatement costs are less • SO2 more influenced than NOx

  3. Background • Project initiated by the Nordic Council of Ministers running 2005 and 2006 • CICERO (Nathan A. Rive), DMU (Jesper Bak), IVL (Stefan Åström) and SYKE (Finland) • Using the macroeconomic model GRACE at CICERO and the RAINS model • Ongoing “post-Kyoto polcies” projects • All scenarios use the same RAINS technical measures in CLE CAF • Preliminary results – plan expansion of scope

  4. Options • Cap on greenhouse gas emissions in Europe • (none) • As Kyoto • Further reductions from Kyoto (1 % per year) • No cap on emissions in eastern Europe • Emission trading scheme: Additional sectors • Additional policies (taxes on non-ETS sectors) • Trading with non-EU countries • Allowance of hot air trade • CDM not considered

  5. CO2 emissions

  6. CO2 emissions

  7. SO2 emissions (2020/2010)

  8. NOx emissions (2020/2010)

  9. SO2 emissions (2020/2010)

  10. NOx emissions (2020/2010)

  11. Effects

  12. Costs • Costs of additional RAINS technical measures (MFR scenario) to reach the emission level of each of the climate policy scenarios,

  13. Conclusions • Post 2012 climate policies are unsettled and introduces an uncertainty about costs for revisions of ceilings • The effect of climate policies on air quality in the second commitment period (or post-Kyoto) is smaller than in the first • Especially SO2 in Nordic countries + EU-12, NOx the same • Very strict targets or no policy at all are unlikely • Eastern-European participation in emission trading and their policies form a large uncertainty as such trading will redistribute emissions and have large consequences for environmental effects • Large share of CDM projects means that more technical measures are needed to reduce air pollutant emissions • Role of Carbon Capture and Storage?

  14. More work…

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