REM 350: Sustainable Energy & Materials Management

REM 350:Sustainable Energy & Materials Management Defining & Measuring Sustainability Mark Jaccard Energy and Materials Research Group School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Coverage Defining sustainability Resource scarcity concerns Waste toxicity concerns Other sustainability concepts Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Defining sustainability “..development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” - World Commission on the Environment and Development, 1987 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Requirements of sustainability The human economy, like the human body, is an energy and materials transformation system. It needs resource inputs and it produces waste outputs. These two dimensions create two main requirements for sustainability. Resource endurance – energy and material inputs must be able to sustain or improve services they provide to humans; either these resources endure indefinitely or their substitution to alternatives will not decrease services to humans (because of much higher costs) Non-toxicity of wastes – energy and material outputs must be benign to the receiving environment or they are recycled within the human economy or they are captured and permanently stored. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Environment Resources: energy & materials Economy: energy & material transformation Wastes: energy & materials Sustainability concerns: resource scarcity & environmental harm Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Environment Resources Economy Wastes Resource scarcity concern:peak oil Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Whither the price of oil? What is the most likely average price of oil during the decade 2020 to 2030? $80-105 $105-140 $140-175 $175-210 >$210 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Peak oil – Hubbert’s Peak Bell-shaped curve of resource discovery and exploitation over time – implicit for all finite resources. Quantity Time Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Peak oil global analysis Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Peak oil theory and its purported consequences • The theory – we pass a global peak in the production of conventional oil and prices rise quickly and permanently to higher levels, leading to: • rapid decline of suburbia, • rapid decline of long-distance trade, • rapid decline of long-distance travel, • rapid decline of the fossil fuel era, • conflicts over scarce resources. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Peak oil depiction Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Theory vs evidence – oil response to price increase Ignores feedback relationship between price, exploration effort, technology and the discovery-development of conventional oil – reserves vs resource. Rising price shifts curve to right and peak upward Quantity Time Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Theory vs evidence: substitutes to conventional oil Ignores feedback relationship between price, technological change and substitution of resources we use to produce refined petroleum products. Source: Farrell and Brandt, Berkeley, 2008 Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Fossil fuels Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Fossil fuel and uranium resource & reserves: GEA Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Renewables potential: GEA Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Theory vs evidence: speed of substitution All taps are already open – commercial scale production. How fast can they be opened further and how far? Unconventional oil Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Biofuels Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

What happens to long-run price of fuel? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Tentative assessment ofpeak oil and impacts Short-run – oil and other energy markets will always be volatile. Tendency to mistakenly extrapolate short run price trends by ignoring supply and demand feedbacks. Forecast long-run average price (2020-2030) depends on: • income effect (rising demand of China, India, etc.) • price effect on demand (higher prices reduce demand) • price effect on supply (higher prices drive substitutes) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

If not peak oil, peak phosphorus? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Environment Resources Economy Wastes Toxicity of wastes concern Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

ROUTES TO ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS Global emissions Local emissions Lack of access to energy services Accidents Unhealthy lifestyles Criteria Air Contam Climate Change Adapted from article on energy and health in “Lancet”. HEALTH IMPACTS Household Community Global Energy System – Human Health Primary energy Primary energy Secondary energy Secondary energy Energy services Energy services Personal mobility Personal mobility Nuclear Nuclear Lighting Lighting Hydrocarbons Hydrocarbons Space heating and Space heating and conditioning conditioning Electric appliances Electric appliances Fossil fuels Fossil fuels Hydrogen Hydrogen and equipment and equipment Transport of goods Transport of goods Industrial Industrial - - thermal thermal Electricity Electricity Industrial Industrial - - mechanical mechanical Renewables Renewables Industrial Industrial - - motive motive - - force force Electrolysis Electrolysis Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Deaths from air pollution & other energy-related causes: 2005 DALY = disability-adjusted life-year (life-years lost to disease Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Toxicity of wastes concern: local and regional impacts Environment Resources Local wastes Economy Global wastes Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Tar sands: an example of local environmental impact “Temporary” land alienation (multiple decades) “Permanent” land alienation leading to loss of natural habitat – possible loss of biodiversity, reduction of biological activity, disruption of fluvial-geological processes. Gradual dispersion of toxins into water and soils. Risk of extreme events – failure of settling ponds, pipeline rupture, major wildlife incident, major fire, etc. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Toxicity of wastes concern: global impacts Environment Resources Local wastes Economy Global wastes Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Fossil fuels and global environmental risk Combustion of fossil fuels increases greenhouse gases in atmosphere. (Includes tar sands production and eventual use of resulting fossil fuel products.) Higher greenhouse gas concentrations to cause rising temperatures and various related impacts. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Huge challenge of acting on the climate change risk Global public good problem. • Virtually everyone’s contribution is small enough that individual initiatives are of little value. • Without compliance enforcement mechanism, incentive to free-ride. Delayed effects problem. • Action must be taken far in advance to avoid impacts, but human decision-making (individual, market, politics) often myopic. Who pays problem. • Perceptions of equity aligned with self-interest (polluter pays vs equal payment per capita or GDP vs historical responsibility) Uncertainty problem. • Complex earth-atmosphere system means ongoing uncertainty, but also substantial risk of catastrophic outcome Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Communicating risks Source: Ronald Prinn, MIT Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Actions and policies for greenhouse gas reduction Actions by households and firms • Energy efficiency (if using fossil fuels) • Fuel switching (away from fossil fuels) • Emissions capture and storage • “The rest” (industrial processes, landfill management, agriculture, forestry) -------------------------------------------------------------------- Policies by government to drive actions • Information • Subsidies • Regulations (command-and-control) • Regulations (market-oriented, e.g. cap and trade) • Emissions charges (carbon tax) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Climate economics Abatement Costs GDP in 2050 is 75% greater instead of 80% Energy costs in 2050 perhaps 30% higher than otherwise would be. Energy costs in typical household budget increase from 6% today to 8% by 2050. Do Nothing Costs Character of impacts Biodiversity loss with higher temp. Extreme weather events (drought, hurricane, heat wave) Ocean acidification Disease surprises Greater floods and coastal instability related to rising oceans Timing, magnitude and GDP cost Highly uncertain, but evidence we underestimate risks of extreme outcomes In 2050 – 20% of GDP lost? 50%? In 2100 – possibly catastrophic? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Acting on environmental risk = reduction of one scarcity risk ? Environment Resources Local wastes Economy Global wastes Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Other sustainability concepts: strong and weak sustainability Natural capital – the ability of the environment (the earth) to provide humans with resource inputs and waste assimilative capacity Human-produced capital – human-produced inputs (buildings, equipment, infrastructure, know-how, institutions) and waste treatment capacity (sewage treatment, emissions capture) Weak sustainability – the sum of natural capital and human-produced capital does not decline (assumes that natural capital can decline if compensated by increase in human-produced capital) Strong sustainability – natural capital does not decline Issue: How do we measure each type of capital? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Are natural and human-produced capital substitutes? Strategy A gives higher NPV than Strategy B. But A is not sustainable while B is. A could relate to a fish stock or even to all bioproductivity on earth. Strategy A Annual benefit $ Strategy B Year 200 Year 400 Year 600 Time Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Decomposing causal factors of human impact (IPAT) Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology of which, Affluence = GDP/Pop, Technology = Impact/GDP *********************************************************************************** Another approach disaggregates options to reduce negative impact (harm) Factors to be influenced are: • Toxicity of M&E throughput = HARM/M&E • M&E intensity of human activity = M&E/GDP • Affluence = GDP/POP • Population Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Options toward sustainability Control population Stop growth of GDP Reduce M&E intensity of GDP – dematerialization (E&M efficiency) (substantially reducing the average level of material and energy throughput per capita) Reduce toxicity of M&E – transmaterialization and detoxification (switching inputs and/or capturing wastes to ensure that M&E flows do not negatively affect the planet’s life-supporting biogeophysical attributes and processes, such as climate stability, stratospheric ozone, clean air, clean water, fertile top soil, biodiversity, etc.) Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Global population projectionsUN Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Ranking options by degree of political difficulty Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Decline in Harm/GDP? If so, how? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Example of energy If we were to skip population and economic output for now, and only focus on dematerialization, transmaterialization and detoxification, what might that look like in the case of energy? Dematerialization (reduced E intensity of GDP) – energy efficiency and conservation. Transmaterialization (reduced toxicity of E) – switching from fossil fuels to renewables. Detoxification (reduced toxicity of E) – carbon capture and storage with fossil fuels. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

electricity hydrogen combustion, reforming, gasification natural gas coal, oil CO2, etc. Carbon capture and storage Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Ecological footprint Compares human demand on nature with the biosphere's ability to regenerate resources and provide services. It does this by assessing the biologically productive land and marine area required to produce the resources a population consumes and absorb the corresponding waste, using prevailing technology. Again, the issue is resource inputs and waste assimilation. Key measures are: Natural system – bioproductivity (photosynthesis) and waste assimilation (material cycles and heat dissipation). Human system – resource inputs and waste outputs. Comparison determines if a group of people (city, region, country) need an area larger than it controls – using resources of other areas and/or degrading the biosphere. Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Ecological Footprint, Overshoot Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

Issues with ecological footprint Is E&M exchange between regions sustainable? Are cities “ecological black holes?” How do we respond to an indication of overshoot? ************************************************************* What is Factor 4? What is Factor 10? Jaccard-Simon Fraser University

REM 350: Sustainable Energy & Materials Management