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European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen

Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios. Hungarian Country presentation Sandor Molnar. European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen. Sources used.

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European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen

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  1. Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios Hungarian Country presentation Sandor Molnar European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen

  2. Sources used • Third National Communication on the Implementation of Commitments under UNFCCC (Committee of Sustainable Development) • Hungarian Climate Change Strategy (Ministry of Environmental Protection) • Hungarian Climate Change Action Plan (Systemexpert) • Hungarian Climate Change Country Study (Systemexpert) • Hungarian Power Companies Database (MVM)

  3. Present situation of GHG emissions in Hungary and the Kyoto commitments • Hungary signed the UN FCCC in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. • According to the Kyoto Protocol, Hungary has to keep its anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by 6% below the base level in the period of 2008-2012. • With accordance with Article 4.6 Hungary selected the base as the average annual emissions in 1985-1987 as a base level.

  4. Hungary’s emissions base Fuel combustion 82647.1 Mining 5463 Industry 1952 Agriculture 6855.3 Waste Management 6247.5 Forestry -3097 Total 100067.9 Table 1. Average emissions in 1985-87 in tons of CO2 equivalent

  5. Total Emissions in Hungary 1985-87 1990 1995 2002 CO2 (Mt) 83,7 71,7 58,7 61,8 CH4 (kt) 664 544 797 820 N2O (kt) 17 11 8 7.8 GWP (Mt) 99,8 82,1 73,9 77,9 Table 2. Estimated GHG emissions in 2000

  6. Fugitive CH4 emissions from oil and gas activities 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 oil industry 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.23 0.25 gas industry 290 257 274 273 291 coal mining 161 124 109 105 106 (Gg) Table 3. Estimated fugitive methane emissions

  7. Emission scenarios in the Hungarian Power Sector • The Kyoto Commitments and the National Climate Change Strategy made it necesary to develop a baseline in the power sector • The Hungarian Power Companies endeavoured to build a top-down baseline for the sector

  8. Modeling with ENPEP • Complex hierarchical, non-linear market based equilibrium model with policy constraints • Provides useful information for DSS • Economic evaluation of an energy project • Energy project’s role in the overall energy system • Economic groth and energy demand requirements • Energy policy evaluation • Energy pricing and tariff development • Scenarios for emissions based on • Economic growth => demand growth • Proportion of fuel imported • Capacity additions type, renewable penetration

  9. Different scenarios pictured according to different assumptions on the basic variables • Demand (smaller, larger) • Two demand growth scenarios were examined, a relatively smaller (growth rate of peak load 0,9% per annum, gorwth rate of demand 1%) and a relatively larger (growth rate of peak load: 0,9% until 2005, after it 1,8%, growth rate of demand 1% until 2005, after it 2%) growth rate in the time period examined. • Demand base used in 2000: peak load 5750MW, annual demand: 38,5 TWh

  10. Time period: 2001-2012-2020 • Import (smaller, larger, irrelevant) • Import and export: Three different scenarios were outlined, a smaller, a higher, and a minimal rate of import. • Typical capacity addition (coal-fired, gas-fired, nuclear) • The possible alternatives of the nuclear power plant of Paks were also examined in different scenarios: the prolongation of the NPP’s operation, the fuel switch to gas/oil power plant, and a fuel switch to coal power plant. • We assumed that the capacities replacing old ones or being installed as new ones always use the most up-to-date technologies available. • Renewable energy utilisation was considered

  11. The following charts present the emissions of the capacities to be installed in Hungary in the respective scenarios over time. These are just the major scenarios. An overview of their relation to Coal PP Lignite PP Nuclear PP Gas PP

  12. Conclusions for the emission scenarios • As it was expected, the power sector has a large potential of emission savings, and is able to balance up other sectors of the country if the proper development and extension plan is taking place. A warning sign is however that a larger demand growth and a limited import of electricity can lead near to the commitments

  13. Renewable energy utilisation in 2003 Type of renewable energy sources Electricity Thermal GWh TJ TJ Hydro 186 670 Wind 0.92 3.3 Geothermal 3,600 Solar thermal 56 Photovoltaics 0.06 0.22 Wood 24,000 Other solid waste 3,000 Landfill gas 2 7.2 12 Sludge/sewage gas 7.6 27.4 120 Heat pump 40 Biomass (vegetal waste) 4,870 Waste incineration 112 403 480 Subtotal 309 1,111 36,178 Total (TJ) ~37,000 (Bohoczky 2001, Ministry of Economy and Transport 2003)

  14. Source: Diana Urge-Vorsatz, 2003

  15. Measures for supporting renewables in Hungary In Hungary, the expression ‘utilisation of renewable energy sources’, as a principle of energy policy, appeared only in 1993 when the Parliament approved the new energy policy objectives (Parliament Resolutions 21/1993 (IV.9). Later these principles were confirmed by the Government Resolutions 2199/1999 (VIII.6.), which established the base of liberalisation of energy market and also emphasised the role of renewables in energy production. Direct investment support The legal background for the support of renewables is based on the Energy Savings Strategy and Action Plan, approved by the Parliament in 1999 (1107/1999) and the Electricity Act (CX/2001). An important momentum is that this decree makes it possible for not only companies and municipalities but also the residential sector to apply for financial support. The financial background of the whole program was 1 billion HUF, 10 % of which was earmarked for renewables in 2000-2001.

  16. Recommendations • Give a clear indication on FiT system for investors: duration, price development. Give schedule for TGC introduction if any. • Renewables cause higher risks for the grid operation and performance, this has to be considered and taken into account (increase margin reserves, etc) • Due to the strategical importance of the area, research and attention to be paid for more precise analysis • Increasing of awareness and conciousness is necessary • Lack of official wind-map makes investment in WP hard • Governmental action and regulatory steps are needed to be taken

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