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“Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change Process: progress achieved and capacity building needed” Budapest, 19-20 November, 2007 EEA Activities on Adaptation: progress achieved and cooperation ahead Michaela Schaller, ETC/ACC Andr é Jol & Stéphane Isoard, European Environment Agency.
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“Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change Process: progress achieved and capacity building needed” Budapest, 19-20 November, 2007 EEA Activities on Adaptation: progress achieved and cooperation ahead Michaela Schaller, ETC/ACC André Jol & Stéphane Isoard, European Environment Agency
European Environment Agency The EEA mission The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environment We are a main information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public
EEA’s mandate • To help the Community and member countries make informed decisions about improving the environment, integrating environmental considerations into economic policies and moving towards sustainability • To coordinate the European environment information and observation network (Eionet) • About 300 national institutions • National focal points • European topic centres • National reference centres • Other institutions
EEA member and collaborating countries Member countries Collaborating countries
EEA’s clients Institutions and governments European Commission, Parliament, Council, EEA member countries • Influencers NGOs, business, media, advisory groups, scientists, debaters • General public • EEA’s networking partners • Eionet partners in 32 member countries + collaborating countries (NFPs, NRCs) • Commission services (DG ENV, TREN, AGRI, Eurostat, JRC) • International organisations (UNEP, UNECE, WHO, OECD) • EEA’s products • diverse publications & information (Reports, briefings, etc.) http://www.eea.europa.eu
EEA‘s main Products on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (Past) • EEA Report No 2/2004 „Impact of Europe‘s changing climate“ • Review of scenario exercises in the context of cc adaptation in Europe (CASE background study) • EEA Technical Report No 7/2005 „Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe“ • EEA Technical Report No 2/2007 „Climate change and water adaptation issues“ • (Europe‘s Environment. The fourth Assessment, 2007)
River flooding events 1998-2005 • About 100 (river) floods: more than 700 fatalities, a million people affected and 25 billion EUR in insured economic losses Data-source: EEA, 2006, unpublished
Water Quantitiy River catchments affected by flooding 1998-2005 • One‑third of the pan‑European population lives in countries where water resources are under substantial pressure. • Over the past five years, the region has suffered more than 100 major floods.
Vernagt glacier (Austria) lost more than 50% of mass between 1912 and 2003 Source: Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, UNEP, 2007
Projected shifts in water runoff in the Alps (increase in winter, decrease in summer) Source: Beniston, 2005
Projected changes in water runoff (decrease in south/east, increase in north/north west) Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990)
Projected increase in heat-related deaths in Southern Europe Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990)
Projected local extinction of plants in Southern Europe Source: ATEAM, 2004, IPCC A2 scenario
Key relevant EU research programmes • PRUDENCE/ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE based predictions of climate change and their impacts) • ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy) • ALARM (Assessing LArge scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) • BRANCH (Biodiversity Requires Adaptation in Northwest Europe under a CHanging climate) • CarboEurope (Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance) • CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Coordination for a Larger Europe, European Research Area) • CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment) • CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability:Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) • COST 725 (Establishing a European Phenological Data Platform for Climatological Applications) • ESPACE (European Spatial Planning: Adapting to Climate Events) • Euro-limpacs (Evaluating the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems) • FLOODSITE (Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies) • GRACE (Groundwater Resources and Climate Change Effects) • PACE (Permafrost and Climate in Europe) • SCENES (Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States)
Examples of national assessments • Finland: FINADAPT (Assessing the adaptive capacity of the Finnish environment and society under a changing climate) • Germany: KomPass (Competence Centre on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation) • Hungary: VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás) Response (VÁlaszadás) • Netherlands: CcSP (Climate Changes Spatial Planning) • Portugal: SIAM (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures) • Spain: ECCE (Assessment of the Preliminary Impacts in Spain due to Climate Change) • Sweden: SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme) • UK: UKCIP (Climate Impact Programme) • All countries: communications to UNFCCC
Current adaptation measures • Preparation of national adaptation strategies: Denmark, Germany,Finland, France, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain,UK • Sectoral actions mainly in areas with a long tradition of dealing with climate extremes such as flood defence, water scarcity and droughts • Water sector- recent focus of EEA study (with German Presidency) with a country survey: very high awareness, measures implemented, planned or underway from technical engineering, building codes, spatial planning, improved forecasting, improved landscape management, behaviour campaigns, new economic instruments
Recent droughts and flooding – range of actions Droughts: • New legislation: France, Portugal • New water savings standards, recycling: Cyprus, UK • New infrastructure, desalinisation plants: Cyprus, Spain, UK • Effective economic instruments: Germany Floods: • Emergency responses, improved forecasting- all • Self- protection and flood awareness • Spatial planning and land management • Hard and soft engineering
Probability Possible practical steps High Risk (priority) 4 3 • Scope and review impacts (and opportunities) - mapping exercise • Simple risk analysis to assess the probability and the consequences • Adaptation responses considered and appraised (decision making) • Ad. Plan (raise awareness, strengthen capacity, incorporate in policy / operations) • Strategic: broad corporate plans, policies and management strategies • Operational: specific services that each organisation provides • Functional: as applies to the internal business processes and units • Consultation throughout • Review: act (learn) act again • Number of organisations involved – from scoping to detailed analysis (hazard, vulnerability and exposure ) 2 Low Risk 1 +1 +2 +3 +4 Magnitude Source: Paul Watkiss
Challenges: what is needed next? • Climate-proof EU policies and Directives (Agriculture, Industry, Energy, Health, Water, Marine, Ecosystems/Biodiversity, Forestry) • Integrate adaptation into EU’s funding programmes (Structural, Cohesion and Solidarity funds, Agriculture and Rural Development funds) • Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an integration tool • Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing countries) • Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional scale and information on costs • Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations and enhanced information exchange • Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation technologies
Future Activities EEA (ETC/ACC) CC Impacts & Adaptation • Provide support to EU policy development on adaptation (e.g. follow-up of Green Paper) • Continue networking with main clients and partners, e.g. • 1st EIONET Workshop on CC vulnerability, impacts & adaptation (27-28 November 2007) • Publish indicator based assessment report on impacts of cc in Europe in 2008 (update of 2004) & update core set cc impact indicators • Develop adaptation indicators & scenarios • Develop approaches to integrate cc impacts & adaptation issues in other main policy areas • Further work on costs of adaptation, exploring approaches to include country specific information
European Topic Centres (ETC) Consortia of institutions across EEA member countries dealing with a specific environmental topic and contracted by EEA to perform specific activities as defined in the EEA work programme • ETC Water • ETC Land Use & Spatial Information • ETC Resource & Waste Management • ETC Air & Climate Change • ETC Biological Diversity
Why is adaptation important ? • Climate change cannot be totally avoided • Anticipatory adaptation can be more effective and less costly than “retrofitting” or “emergency adaptation” • Climate change may be more rapid and pronounced than currently known • Immediate benefits from adaptation to current climate variability and extreme events • Avoid maladaptive policies and practices
Some issues with adaptation Complexities Challenges • Cross-sectoral • Uncertainty – different confidence for average temperature vs. extremes • Determined by future socio-economic development • Ownership - different actors (builder vs. operator) • Time-scales – investing now for benefits in the (far) future • Inequalities (impacts and adaptive capacity) • Timing – pro-active vs. reactive ? • Cost-effective adaptation – what is proportionate and efficient? • Ancillary effects – positive and negative? • Differences in scale, from EU to local • Integration & consistency? • Appropriate adaptation “stakeholder-led”, rather than enforced Source: Paul Watkiss
EEA is member of the advisory group of the following projects • ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy; 6th FP; 2006-2009) • SCENES (Water Scenarios for Europe and for neighbouring States; 6th FP; 2007-2010) • ALARM (Assessing LArge scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods, 6th FP) • GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system (Atmosphere) Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data, 6th FP) • Euro-limpacs (Evaluating the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems, 6th FP) • CarboEurope-IP (Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance, 6th FP) • CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Coordination for a Larger Europe, European Research Area (ERA-Net), 6th FP) • CcSP (Climate changes Spatial Planning, Netherlands research programme)
Projected crop yield decrease in Southern Europe, increase in Northern Europe (2 models) Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990)