OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology

1. OwlSim: Revolutionizing National Energy Policies Through Technology COMP 410 in Collaboration with Citizens for Affordable Energy

2. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

3. Overview • Introduction • The Class: COMP 410 • The Customer: Citizens for Affordable Energy • Project Motivation • The Mission • The Team • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

4. The Class: COMP 410 • “Software Engineering Methodology” • Design class satisfying computer science Bachelors of Science degree capstone requirement • Warm-up project during first 3 weeks, then semester-long project … with a real customer! • Student driven – no problem sets or lectures

5. The Customer:Citizens for Affordable Energy • CFAE is a national not-for-profit membership association • Goal is to educate citizens and policymakers about non-partisan national energy solutions • Leadership • John Hofmeister, Founder and CEO • Karen Hofmeister, Executive Director • www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org

6. Project Motivation • CFAE is concerned with the lack of a long-term national energy policy Current policy may result in serious shortfalls in energy availability, affordability and sustainability • CFAE wants a public software tool to simulate the long-term effects of national policies

7. The Mission • Develop a simulation framework to predict the effects of policies • Model U.S. electric power generation and distribution • Create plans corresponding to best, average, and worst case scenarios • Make the results accessible to the public

8. The Team • User Interface Team • Jesus Cortez (Team Leader) • Robyn Moscowitz • Tung Nguyen • NaraeKim • Simulation Team • AshrithPillarisetti (Team Leader) • Linge Dai • Mina Yao

9. The Team • Modeling Team • Irina Patrikeeva (Team Leader) • Elizabeth Fudge • Ace Emil • Framework Team • WeiboHe (Team Leader) • Jarred Payne • Yunming Zhang • XiangjinZou

10. The Team • Robert Brockman II – Project Manager • James Morgensen – Architect • Daniel Podder – Integration Master • Elizabeth Fudge – Organization Master

11. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Theoretical Design • System Capabilities • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

12. Theoretical Design • Modeling complex systems with mathematical functions • Functions represented as modular “circuit elements” with inputs and outputs • Functional modules can be “composited” • Encapsulate components of model • Allows composite modules with other modules inside. • Arbitrarily complicated models can be created

13. System Capabilities • Scalability & Elasticity • Scaling up and down according to loads • Possible Parallel and distributed simulation instances • Possible Load Balancing • Flexibility • Supporting multiple Use Cases • Easy Maintenance, low cost • Stability • Handling hardware failures • Handling software failures

14. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Model Implementation • Viewing the Results • Worst, Average and Best Case Scenarios • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Questions

15. Energy Model Implementation • Four main components drive the simulation

16. The Model Details 1. Producer simulates • Production of electricity from: • Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear, Hydroelectric, Wind, Solar, Geothermal and Other (fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.) • Production of transportation fuel • Oil (petroleum) and Biofuels • Inputs: • Electricity and fuel demand from Consumer • Electricity lost from Infrastructure • Outputs: • Electricity and fuel price to Consumer • Electricity and fuel produced to Infrastructure • Pollution to Environment

17. The Model Details 2. Infrastructure Simulates transport of electricity and fuel • Inputs: • electricity and fuel producedin Producer • Outputs: • Pollution to Pollution module • Fuel transportation cost to Consumer • Electricity lost to Producer

18. The Model Details 3. Consumer • Inputs: • Fuel transportation costfrom Infrastructure • Electricity price from Producer • Outputs: • Electricity and fuel demand to Producer • Pollution to Environment

19. The Model Details 4. Environment Calculates the net pollution emitted during one time step • Inputs: • Pollution from Producer • Pollution from Infrastructure • Pollution from Consumer • Outputs: • Total pollution graph over time

20. Simulation Design • The system starts at 2010 with a list of initial values (assumptions) • Based on the assumptions the output of simulation will change • User can provide events that change both initial values and future parameters • Events are system parameters that affect a system at a certain date for a specified period of time • Events allow to model technological progress, natural disasters, and other events that affect energy system

21. User Assumptions and Events • User has the ability to change many aspects of simulation • Example events • How much electricity and fuel is produced from each source • Net electricity and pollution produced from each source • Power plants capacity • Electricity lost due to transmission • Cost of electricity production • Population growth rate

22. Worst-Case Plan • Simulation runs with default values (2010 data) • No new power plants are built • Nothing is done to reduce pollution • Population and energy demand grows while supply decreases due to decommission of old power plants

23. Average-Case Plan • User builds new energy sources • Producing more electricity from cleaner renewable energy reduces the gap between supply and demand • Environmental pollution is reduced • No technological breakthroughs (capacity and cost of production do not drastically change)

24. Best-Case Plan • Supply meets demand • Energy is produced from clean renewable sources at affordable price • Pollution is reduced

25. Comparison with Other Models • No complicated equations • Directly shows user changes • Easy to use and test various assumptions • Unbiased

26. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Changing the Plans • Changing the Model • System Administration • Conclusion • Questions

27. Changing the Plans • User logs in using a Windows Live ID • User can edit a plan • Change inputs to simulation • Adding, changing events • User can save plan • Simulate model with modified plan

28. Changing the Model • Allows completely customized models using XML format

29. System Administration • Used by CFAE administrators • Adding Users • Changing Privileges

30. Overview • Introduction • Simulation Framework • Energy Model and Plans • Advanced Features • Conclusion • Implications for Energy Policy Development • Acknowledgements • Summary • Q&As

31. Implications for Energy Policy Development • Ability to model new policies rapidly • Lots of flexibility • Common ground to model different policies with same framework • Education of public • Public forum for discussion on energy policy

32. Acknowledgements • CFAE • John Hofmeister, Karen Hofmeister • Professors • Dr. Stephen Wong, Dr. Scott Rixner • TAs • Dennis Qian, Max Grossman, MilindChabbi, Rahul Kumar • Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen staff • Microsoft

33. Acknowledgements • Smalley Institute: • Dr. Wade Adams • Dr. Carter Kittrell • Dr. Richard Johnson • Steven Wolff • Others • Jeffrey Bridge, Jeffrey Hokanson, Stamatios George Mastrogiannis

34. Summary • Extensible framework for energy simulation • Publicly accessible web application • Graphical output • Modifiable assumptions • Pre-computed models • Three energy plans for the next 50 years Questions?

35. References • EIA etc.