The 2012 Elections Lawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance

1. The 2012 Elections Lawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance

2. Presidential Elections U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota Minnesota Legislative Elections The Changing Electorate “Around the horn”

3. “Houston, we have a problem” Presidential Election: GOP Presidential Nomination 3

4. GOP Nomination: Delay by Design Sources: Josh Putnam, Frontloading HQ; Republican Party; data from polls of likely Republican primary voters conducted by CNN/​Time/​Opinion Research, NBC/​Marist and Quinnipiac University. Graphic Compiled by New York Times.

5. Who Decides? A small number Sources: Turnout as a Percentage of Eligible Voters -- AP, NEP Exit Polls, Elections.GMU.Edu, CBS

6. Who are small number choosing GOP candidates? White Evangelical Christians as Percentage of Eligible Voters in Republican Caucasus and Primaries Sources: AP, NEP Exit Polls, Elections.GWU.edu. 2012 Exit Polls: IA, NH, SC, FL, NV. 2008 Exit Polls: AZ, MI, GA, MA, OH, OK, TN, AL, MS, IL, LA

7. Tea Party Storms GOP Primaries: Conservative Mobilization “Very conservative” political philosophy Sources: 1992 & 2000 data are from the National Election Pool Presidential Primary Elections via ICPSR, 2012 data are from CNN.com: "On most political matters do you consider yourself: (Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, Very Conservative)"

8. GOP Battle Scars Romney’s Presidential Candidate Unfavorabilty Ratings, April of Election Year Sources: NYT/CBS Poll (1992-1996), ABC/WP Poll (2000-2012)

9. 2012 General Election: Some Pivots to Follow

10. GOP helped Obama but volatile Source: Real Clear Politics (4/1/2012)

11. 2 Views of How to Win Pres. Elections: Both Matter Rove Strategy: Frame choice that plays to base -- turn out reliable & loyal voters Most influential during nomination battle and among activists Question: Who offers sharpest alternative? Retrospective Voting: Win referendum -- “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?” Most influential during general election and among undecided Question: Which opposition candidate receives most anti-incumbent votes?

12. 1. Will voters punish Obama for country heading off on wrong track? Sources: National Election Pool General Election Exit Polls, 2004, & 2008; McClatchy-Marist Poll (3/22/12))

13. Obama will be judged on economy Percentage of Americans Ranking the Economy as Country’s Most Important Problem Source: Gallup

14. Voters focused on economy, not social issues Source: “Which of the following matters more to you in deciding which presidential candidate to support - the candidate's views on economic issues or the candidate's views on social issues?” (registered voters only, CBS/NYT Poll (2/13/12)

15. A lot of Voters Looking for work Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Is Economy Improving, Stagnating or Declining? Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

17. Strong (though declining) disapproval of Obama’s Handling of Economy President Obama’s Job Approval on Economy Source: Pollster.com

18. Economic Performance Drives Approval Obama Approval Rating and Consumer Confidence Index Source: Approval data are from Gallup polling; data on consumer attitudes are from Gallup's Economic Confidence Index

19. 2. Loading Dice: Follow Party Id 19

20. 3. Who Turns Out? Fading GOP Advantage – so far Percentage Extremely or Very Enthusiastic About Voting “How enthusiastic are you about voting for president this year?” Source: USA Today/Gallup (3/11/12)

21. Turning Out the Base: A Bipartisan Challenge Source: 1980-1988 (NYT/CBS Exit Poll); 1992 (Voter Research and Surveys Pool Exit Polls); 1996-2000 (Voter News Service Pool Exit Polls); 2004-2008 (National Election Pool Exit Polls)

22. 4. Popularity Contest? Which contest? Source: Favorability ABC/WP (4/15/12); Job Performance ABC/WP Poll (4/8/12)

23. 5. The Fight for the Slice “Both sides only need to care about 8% to 12% of electorate”- John Weaver , GOP Strategist & McCain Advisor

24. GOP Strategy: Keep it close among hostile voting groups Republicans Net Advantage(Republican Vote minus Democratic Vote) Sources: 1992 (Voter Research and Surveys Pool Exit Poll); 1996-2000 (Voter News Service Pool Exit Poll); 2004-2008 (National Election Pool Exit Poll)

25. Obama Coalition – Weaker Obama’s Advantage in 2008 Exit Polls Compared to 2012 Registered Voters Source: Pew Research Center (4/15/12) http://www.people-press.org/2012/04/17/section-1-general-election-preferences/

26. Elections: Klobuchar Race?

27. Hint: Tough Race Senator Klobuchar’s Job Approval Sources: (SurveyUSA Poll, 9/09): “Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Amy Klobuchar is doing as a Senator?” and (PPP Poll, 12/10, 6/11, 1/24): “Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy Klobuchar’s job performance?”

28. National Importance: Democrats Uphill Battle to Hold Majority (53-47)

29. Elections: MN Legislative Races • Will potential Obama backlash or sharp choice nationalize state legislative contests? • Will hangover from shutdown and acrimony haunt GOP legislators or fade?

30. Not so much fun: Legislators Check Out Retirements/Open Seats/Seats Lost to Redistricting in Minnesota House and Senate House Retirements: Rep. Connie Doepke, Rep. Mark Buesgens, Rep. Denise Dittrich, Rep. John Kriesel, Rep. Keith Downey, Rep. Kurt Bills, Rep. Nora Slawik, Rep. Ron Shimanski, Rep. Marion Greene, Rep. Lyle Koenen, Rep. Larry Hosch, Rep. Kate Knuth, Rep. Torrey Westrom, Rep. Bobby Joe Champion, Rep. Brande Petersen, Rep. Bev Scalze, Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer, Rep. Bruce Anderson, Rep. Bill Hilty, Rep. Kent Eken, Rep. Mark Murdock, Rep. Pat Mazorol, Rep. Mindy Greiling, Rep. Mike LeMieur,Sen. Keith Langseth, Rep. Tom Tillberry, Rep. Carol McFarlane Senate Retirements: Sen. Amy Koch, Sen. Al DeKruif, Sen. Chris Gerlach, Sen. Gen Olson, Sen. Linda Higgins, Sen. Doug Magnus, Sen. Geoff Michel, Sen. Gary Kubly, Sen. Mike Parry, Sen. Ken Kelash, Sen. Mary Jo McGuire, Sen. Mike Jungbauer, Sen. Claire Robling,  Sen. Gretchen Hoffman Source: List Compiled by Rachel Stassen-Berger, Star Tribune

31. GOP initially blamed for government shutdown. But old news? Source: MinnPost Poll; July 28, 2011

32. Legislature is highly unpopular. But legislatures rarely popular Do you approve or disapprove of the job the State Legislature is doing?  Sources: (KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll 6/11 and 2/12)

33. Still, GOP gets lower marks Do you approve or disapprove of the job the DFL/Republican members of the legislature are doing? Source: PPP Poll (1/27/12)

34. And, Dayton receives higher scores Governor Dayton Approval Sources: (Star Tribune Poll 5/11 and 11/11): ” Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Dayton is handling his job as governor?” (KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll 6/11 and 2/12) : “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor?” (PPP Poll 1/12): “Do you approve or disapprove of Governor  Mark Dayton’s job performance?”

35. Oh, and the electorate is changing

36. Will Etch A Sketch Win Romney Latino Voters? Source: Public Policy Polling, Feb 14, 2012: "If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?"

37. Something to keep in mind: The Changing Electorate Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 Projected changes in population:

38. Declining White Electorate

39. Changing Electorate – Rising Minority Vote Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/10/25/us/politics/approval-of-congress-drops-to-single-digits.html?ref=politics

40. Changing Democratic Coalition –More Minority & Next Generation Voters Source: (Pew Research Center 11/11) http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/11-3-11-27/

41. Caveats (1): Hispanic Conservatism Keep or Repeal Health Care Reform? Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, Feb. 23, 2012: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the health care law, or should they let it stand?

42. Caveats (2): Impacts of Economic Downturn Depress turnout below 2008 levels Moderate demographic changes – slow immigration & birthrate

43. And, then, there’s governing

44. Taller Hurdles • Problems remain or worsen – • Long term budget deficits… and the ticking sequestration bomb • Rising health costs/declining access • Workforce challenges • Political Compromise may be less likely • Retirement of moderates -- Sen. Snowe, Nelson, Conrad • GOP Tea Party Phobia – Bennett & now Hatch & Lugar 2014 worriers – Collins, Graham • New replacements implacable foes of compromise/pragmatism

45. Center for the Study of Politics and Governance • Forums: Policy Makers, Candidates, Experts • Policy Fellows – leadership development that draws best emerging talent from public, private, and non-profits • Smart Politics Blog – “Truly high-end” (Chuck Todd) • Practical reforms – Govt redesign, redistricting, election administration • Election Administration – Doug Chapin

46. Vikings: Keep’em How important is it to you that the Vikings Stay in Minnesota? Source: (Star Tribune Poll 11/11) http://www.startribune.com/politics/133240568.html

47. 60% or more oppose “public funding” but majorities support range of options Source: “I’m going to read you a list of the public funding options being considered to help pay for a new Vikings stadium. If a stadium is to be built, please tell me whether you support or oppose each of the following.” (Star Tribune Poll 11/11)

48. Democratic Headwinds:Declining Obama Approval Source: Gallup (3/25/2012)