Aims of the presentation

1. The Relationship between Policymakers' Choices of Outcome Indicators for Children and Policies to Reduce Inequality Between Children: Australia Since the 1980s Gerry Redmond ISCI, University of York, 27-29 July 2011

2. Aims of the presentation Motivating the question – uncertainty in trends in inequalities in child outcomes Analysing investments in children since the 1980s Looking at outcomes for children Conclusions

3. Motivators

4. Motivators for this analysis Studies in several countries suggest uncertain trends in non-educational outcomes and inequalities in outcomes for children...... Tick et al.: Stable (NL) Achinbach: Down during the Reagan years, then improving (US) Collishaw et al.: Down in the 1980s and 1990s, improving slightly in the 2000s (UK) Smart and Sanson: No great change (Australia)

5. Motivators..... .... As well as uncertain trends in inequalities in educational outcomes. Blanden & Machin (UK): little change in relationship between parent’s SES and children’s outcomes since 1970 Checchi (Italy): little change in relationship between parent education and child education over entire 20th century (even though average educational levels have improved greatly)

6. Australia: increased equity, or equality of opportunity in recent years? ‘.. There has been a general decline in the reproduction of socioeconomic inequalities in Australia. However, there is little understanding of the processes involved; for example the importance of educational reforms, changing parental aspirations, individualism, bureaucratic selection procedures, and a decline in the socialization of the family..’ (Marks, Social Forces, 2010)

7. Other (occasionally conflicting) evidence for Australia… Rothman (2002) Effect of parent occupation on 14 year old student achievement in reading and mathematics mostly declined between 1975 and 1995, but in some cases increased between 1995 and 1998 Fullarton (2003) Decline in the influence of parent education or occupation on child’s likelihood of attaining Year 12 between 1980 and 2001 Leigh (2007) No great change in intergenerational mobility in Australia over time.

8. Evidence from PISA… • Australia performs above the average in some measures of intergenerational mobility. • Gap in academic performance of 15 year old children whose mothers and fathers have low levels of education, relative to the performance of children whose mothers and fathers have high levels of education, is smaller in Australia than in most other countries (OECD, 2008). • Has this changed in recent decades, and if so, can this change be ascribed to investment in children?

9. Investments

10. Policy Goals in Australia Hawke-Keating era (1983 to 1996) – end child poverty - universal health care - improve cash transfers for children - encourage parents into employment Howard era (1996 to 2007) – choice & support - cash support for families - growth in services for children - focus on parent choice in health, education [Rudd-Gillard era (from 2007) – investment in children for economic returns - focus on disadvantaged children (exclusion, lost productivity) - ‘Close the Gap’ - work for parents

11. Investment in Elderly & Children OECD data Trends in per capita social expenditure (excluding health & education) on elderly & families, Australia Source: OECD Social Expenditure Database

12. Public investment in both cash transfers andin-kind services for children increased greatly between 1988-89 and 2003-04.... Trends in social expenditure on children, Australia ($ per week, 2003 prices) Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

13. Almost half of the increase in in-kind benefits for Australian children went towards education.... Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

14. ... And public expenditure was focused more on the poorest children.... Real change in indirect public benefits for children: amounts per child 1988-89 to 2003-04 ($ per week) Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

15. .... Child poverty declined... Trends in poverty among families with children, Australia 1982 to 2007-08 (per cent) Source: Survey of Incomes and Housing Costs

16. .... While income inequality did not increase greatly... Trends in inequality among working age families with children, Australia 1982 to 2007-08 (per cent) Source: Survey of Incomes and Housing Costs

17. But....... Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

18. Public Investment in Children’s Education, 1988-89 to 2003-04, by household income Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

19. Public and Private Investment in Children’s Education, 1988-89 to 2003-04, by household income Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

20. Public and Private Investment in Children’s Education, combined, 1988-89 to 2003-04 Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

21. Enrolment in public schools declined Enrolment in public education, 1993-2010 (per cent all enrolments)

22. Outcomes

23. What outcomes might we expect? • Unclear trends in investments… • Positive moves to increase equity • reducing child poverty • Moderate increases in income inequality • increasing resources for poorer children • improving health care for all children • But also increased private expenditure on education • and policy encouragement to spend on private education • And increase enrolments in non-Government schools

24. PISA scores (15 year olds), Australia, P95/P5 and P90/P10 P95/P5 P90/P10 Source: Thomson et al, 2008, 2010

25. PISA scores (15 year olds), Australia, by family SES Source: Thomson et al, 2008, 2010

26. TIMSS (14 year olds), Australia Ratio of scores – children with university educated mothers to children whose mothers did not complete lower secondary Source: Thomson et al, 2008, 2010

27. Persistent behaviourdifficulties among children aged 4-8, by parent education, Australia, 1980s and 2000s 1980s 2000s Behaviour problems Behaviour problems Parent education Parent education 1980s data – Australian Temperament Project database 2000s data – Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

28. Conclusion So.. Is everything OK, or are we shining a light in the wrong place? Some survey data suggest that inequality in educational achievement according to SES has declined in recent years Other measures of inequality in educational achievement do not suggest a large increase in inequality This accords with declining child poverty, moderate income inequality & and more equitable public investment in education Does it also accord with growing private investment in education, or in increasing proportions of children attending private schools?

29. Conclusion So.. Is everything OK, or are we shining a light in the wrong place? Grek & Ozga (2008): comparative exercises such as PISA “have major impacts on national policies..... Such activities have major impacts on definitions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ education systems and required solutions...”  Information in PISA, TIMSS etc. is used to define problems and solutions – is this a problem?

30. Questions How should we judge the success of public investments in children in Australia? Can we expect more of public policy in Australia, other than to hold inequalities in check? Are we shining a light in the right place, or should we be looking for other types of inequalities? Is it too early to examine the effects of policies implemented in the 1980s and 1990s?

31. Gerry Redmond g.redmond@unsw.edu.au www.sprc.unsw.edu.au