SOME ELEMENTS TO IMPROVE AND EXPLORE GENETIC DROUGHT RESISTANCE Abel Muñoz-Orozco

1. SOME ELEMENTS TO IMPROVE AND EXPLORE GENETIC DROUGHT RESISTANCE Abel Muñoz-Orozco Genetica IREGEP, Colegio de Postgraduados, México Francisco Muñoz-Arriola and D. P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, USA 5-9 of October 2008 Join Annual Meeting ASA-CSSA-SSSA Houston, TX. USA

2. Outline • Motivation and General Concepts • Examples of Drought Resistance • Drought Resistance Models • Modeling Agricultural Drought • VIC • Further work

3. Motivation • In micro regions (ecological niches) most of the patterns of crop’s genetic resistance to drought and other adverse factors are unknown • These patterns are important to study crop’s genetic resistance in the context of climate change SOME ABIOTIC ADVERSE FACTORS CONFRONTED IN MEXICO • Serdán, Puebla example: Great Drought of Winter, Intra Summer drought, and frost conditions; with or without residual humidity. • Huetamo, Michoacán example: low rainfall and high temperatures, with out residual humedity • In the numerous micro regions there are a wide diversity of combinations of abiotic adverse factors and patterns of genetic resistance

5. GENERAL CONCEPTS • Drought is a period with low rainfall • Drought Resistance, is the energy accumulated by a variety against drought • Effects of drought are modified (not the drought) mainly by elements as t, T, S, ψa, Ll, D, O, Sp, A + I • t, duration of drought • T, temperature • S, different elements of the soil • Ψa, water potential of the air • Ll, amount of rainfall • D, its distribution • O, ontogenetic stage of the plant • Sp, species • A, pre-conditioning • I, an interactión of the genetic elements with environmental elements Muñoz Orozco, A. (2004). Conceptos fundamentales para evaluar la resistencia a sequia. XI International Conference on Rainwater Catchment System (Colegio de Posgraduados), pag. 518-522

6. EXAMPLES OF DROUGHT RESISTANCE CARACTERISTICS DETECTED • In peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.): flowering plasticity; when there is Drought, flowering reduces and renews when raifall resumes • In sorgo (Sorhum vulgare Pers.): heat tolerance; the panicle produces grain and the leaves do not dry during high temperatures • In maize (Zea mays L.): tolerance; when there is drought, growing is reduced and renewed when rainfall reasumes. It is asociated to stomatal hipersensitivity, stomatal closure at higher leaf-water potentials. • The evaluation of drought resistance is based in the model one Muñoz Orozco et al., (1983). Transpiracion, fotosintesis, eficiencia en uso de agua y potencial hídrico en maices resistentes a sequia y heladas. Agrociencia. 51, pag. 115-153

7. MODEL ONE TO EVALUATE DROUGHT RESISTANCE • Y=G+D+G*D • Y, total variation • G, variation of genotypes (estimates of genetic generic effects such as those expressed under drought or wet conditions) • D, variation of drought levels (or through locations) • G*D interaction of G by D (estimates the specific effects to drought, which are expressed only under drought conditions) Muñoz Orozco, A. (1990). Modelo matématico para evaluar la resistencia a sequia: casos uno a seis. Evolucion Biológica (ASIBE), pag. 93-106.

8. RO Ontogenetic drought resistance Y1 Early RO Ontogenetic drought resistance S G S Fl Early Y2 Intermediarte RF Phylogenetic drought resistance Drought resistance (Energy accumulated against drought conditions) RO Ontogenetic drought resistance S G Fl S Intermediate Y3 Late G=GERMINATION F=FLOWERING S=SEED FORMATION S G Fl S Late ONTOGENETIC DROUGHT RESISTANCE AND PHYLOGENETIC DROUGHT RESISTANCE • Ontogenetic drought resistance (DO) or resistance through ontogenetic stages of a variety, such as early, intermediate or late varieties • Phylogenetic drought resistance (RP) or resistance among averages of varieties of different precocity

9. MODEL TWO TO EVALUATE DROUGHT RESISTANCE • Y=RO+RP+RO*RP Where Y, total variation RO, ontegenetic drought resistance or resistance through the ontogenetic stages RP, phylogenetic drought resistance or resistance among averages of varieties RO*RP, interactión of RO byRP • These concepts contribute to better understand the drought resistance of the maize varietal patterns in the mexican micro regions. • These varietal patterns are clusters of early, inermediate, and late varieties adapted to different environmental conditions of the micro regions Muñoz Orozco, A. (1997). Model 2 to select for drought tolerance. Developing drought and low N-tolerant maize. (CIMMYT), pag 541-543

10. Maize varietal pattern from mexican central high valleys, the white and cream color grain variety is late, the yellow one intermediate and the blue one early

11. VIC Model • Available Indices • Palmer Drought Index • Standardized Precipitation Index • Surface Water Supply Index • Proposed Method • Use of Hydrological Models to create continuous spatiotemporal patterns of drought-linked variables • SM and RO Percentiles relative to the climatology (1960-1999) • Allow monitoring and forecast

12. Short- and Long-term Drought predictions Predicted Soil Moisture Percentile using the UW Seasonal Hydrological Forecast System Long-term hydrological assessments based temperature increments Huetamo Serdan Short-term hydrological predictions based on ensemble techniques

13. Assemble to rain fall and temperatures conditions of the maize varietal pattern from Mexican central high valleys Early variety Intermediate variety Late variety Use of hydrological modeling to predict short- and long-term agricultural drought integrated into the Genetic Drought Resistance Modeling Framework

14. Acknowledgments • Shraddhanand Shukla, UW • Alan Hamlet, UW

15. D0 G1 +d +g Yield or Accumulated Energy -g 0 -d +g*d G2 D1 -g*d 0 D0 D1 Drought Level

16. D1 D0 D0 D1 D1 Yield or Accumulated Energy D0 • 6 cases (P=Yield) • PG1=PG2 ( in D0); PG1>PG2 (D1) • PG1>PG2 ( in D0); PG1=PG2 (D1) • PG1>PG2 ( in D0) = PG1>PG2 (D1) • PG1=PG2 ( in D0) > PG1=PG2 (D1) • PG1=PG2 ( in D0) < PG1=PG2 (D1) • PG1>PG2 ( in D0) ; PG1<PG2 (D1) • Plus n intermediate cases D0 D1 D0 D1 D0 D1