Mark D. Myers, PhD Vice Chancellor for Research

1. Arctic Energy Summit 2013 An Integrated Approach to Oil Spill Research for the Offshore Arctic Akureyri, Iceland October 9, 2013 Mark D. Myers, PhD Vice Chancellor for Research

2. Key Drivers That Will Effect Future Oil and Gas Development • Future Demand and Price • World economy, non OCED and general growth • Energy Endowment • Oil and gas are where you find it! • Development Technology • Conventional and Unconventional Resources • Access to resource • Challenging environments, infrastructure and geopolitics • Environmental risk • Particularly wrt oil spills and water (policy, technology • and investment)

3. USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Assessment

4. Circum-Arctic Non-Petroleum Resources Lawson Brigham AMSA 12 August 2008

5. Diverse Sources of Spill Risk Needs Diverse Response Capacity Tugboat runs aground on Alaska Peninsula, stranding crew and barge. ADN : November 14, 2012 Crowley Marine Anchorage Daily News, 21 Sept 2011/14 Nov 2012

6. Peeling Back the Onion – Understanding the Ecosystem Highly complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and social processes.

7. In the Arctic Stationarity- the concept and practice that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability is Dead

8. Dramatic Change in Sea Ice ExtentRapid ecosystem changeIncreased access to energy, hard minerals and fishery resourcesIncreased shipping, tourism, and community access National Snow and Ice Data Center

9. Permafrost Thaw Photo by Mikhail Kanevskiy

10. photo Cameron Wobus, CIRES Trends of decreasing sea ice and increased open-water fetch, combined with warming air and ground temperatures, are expected to result in higher wave energy, increased seasonal thaw, and accelerated coastal retreat along large parts of circum-Arctic coast. photo Susan Flora, BLM

11. Coastal Erosion National Petroleum Reserve Alaska USGS

12. Research Tracks Research Outcome Prevention Detection Mitigation Impacts

13. Improving Environmental Security & Oil-Spill Response Through an Integrated Coastal Observing System Eicken, Petrich, Mahoney, et al.; www.sizonet.org Remote sensing* (km-scale): Coastal environments & infrastructure, ice hazards Coastal radar* (sub-km scale): Vessel & ice tracking, ice dynamics & potential disaster response Aerial surveys (including UAVs), ice & sub-ice sensor systems* Local knowledge*: Potentially important role for disaster response Integration of data streams, GIS-based decision support systems * Leveraged through integration & assimilation of existing coastal observing system resources supported by NSF, DHS, and NOAA 13

14. Oil Trajectory Modeling in Ice-Covered Waters Products Daily to weekly forecasts for spill response and planning Modeled oil-spill trajectories based on key spill scenarios for EIAs and risk assessments Predicting Evaluate the capability of current state-of-the-art sea-ice models to predict oil-spill trajectories Identify key research areas to transition models to operations Monitoring Assimilation of data from the monitoring program into forecast model

15. Regions Covered By High-Frequency shore-based, surface mapping radars (Open Water Season) Coastal AK: NO Power Grid! UAF built and tested an autonomous power system (wind, solar, & biodiesel). System: proven, flexible, portable & arctic-proof. Can support other sensors. The Future? 8 radar-RPM systems can cover Beaufort and NE Chukchi (40,000 n.mi.2) (Supported by: BOEM, DHS and AKDCED)

16. Coastal Radars map surface (upper 1 m) currents: • - hourly • over broad areas (~175 km) at • 6-km resolution • real-time access via the Web • easily understandable • cost effective • To guide open-water response to marine spills (and other purposes). ~4MHz Funded by: BOEMRE, Shell, and ConocoPhillips Shore-based power available

17. Large temporal variability too… 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 Winsor, UAF, 2013

18. SFOS/UAF Autonomous Remote Technology Lab Operates three Webb Slocum Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) gliders. Non-propelled, autonomous, quiet, low-power, long-endurance specific AUV  up to ~ 3-month missions using lithium batteries. Two-way, real-time Iridium satellite communication  mission change on the fly + relay data to scientists, numerical models and decision makers. Unique, high-resolution (vertical and horizontal) surface-to-bottom data coverage.

19. 2010 Mission accomplishments: • AUVs can successfully navigate large portions of the Chukchi Sea • 65-day total glider missions using two Webb Slocum gliders • >3,000 vertical hydrographic profiles • >800 km of glider transects • UAF is the only academic entity operating joint glider/HF radar programs in the Arctic.

20. Oil Spill Monitoring Prince William Sound Technology Evaluation (Conoco Phillips and BP) BP’s Aeryon Scout Prince William Sound Airspace AeroVironment Puma Aircraft • Objective: Understand how small-unmanned aircraft can contribute to environmental cleanup operations associated with an oil spill • Partners: • Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation • US Fish and Wildlife • Environmental Protection Agency

21. Meeting the Arctic ChallengeUnmanned Bering Sea Operation, May 2009 • Lack of infrastructure: • No runways • No cell phones Harsh conditions: • Icing potential • Low visibility • UAF scientists successfully overcame these challenges to obtain high-resolution imagery for an ice seal survey.

22. Ice Profiling LIDAR Deployed by NASA in Greenland and Svalbard Norway LIDAR Color Visible SAR Partnership with University of Colorado

23. Other Payloads • Hyperspectral Imager: • 400-900 nm • Up to 240 spectral bins • <1 m spatial resolution • Push broom deployment for image cube generation Miniature Meteorological Dropsondes: • Wind speed and direction • Relative humidity • Pressure • Temperature as a function of altitude (~ 5m vertical resolution) Ball Experimental Sea Surface Temperature (BESST) Radiometer: Resolution: ±0.5 K (uncooled) BP Deepwater Horizon SST from BESST

24. R/V Sikuliaq Launched October 2012 - Operational 2014 Seward Based Length 261, ’ 45 day endurance, ice strengthened 20 Crew, 26 Science Managed and Operated by UAF - Supported by: NSF

25. Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Modeling • High-resolution meteorological model developed • Performs well year-round • Hindcasting studies underway • Forecasting capability Wind Speed Wind Direction Courtesy of Zhang and Zhang; UAF International Arctic Research Center and Arctic Supercomputer Center. Supported by BOEMRE. 25

26. Oil in Ice:Measurement & Simulation 0 • Cold lab experiments & numerical modeling of oil entrainment & movement through ice • Goal: Inform oil-spill response in coastal ice settings; improve oil-in-ice detection & modeling of ecological impacts Porosity 1

27. Food and Cultural Security

28. Toxicity of Dispersed Petroleum to Arctic Species Species selected based upon role in the pelagic food web of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Toxicity tests conducted on ANS crude oil: • Chemically dispersed (COREXIT 9500) • Mechanically dispersed ANS crude oil Arctic cod (Boreogadus) Copepod (Calanus glacialis) Sculpin (Myoxocephalus)

29. Characterize food webs prior to spills • Use post-spill assessment to gage impact and monitor recovery

30. Some Components of an Enhanced Arctic Oil Spill Response Capacity Engaged Research Community at UAF: Identified 40 Research Scientists studying topics from Anthropology to Zooplankton COMMUNITIES

31. Building a Vibrant and Sustainable Future Requires Research. • Integrated and authoritative data and technical means including long-term integrated data bases with near real time data • Better models and decision support tools • An integrated perspective to make wise decisions • The best management techniques including effective adaptive management Environment Human Health and Other Societal Values Economy

32. Although you can learn much from the outside the conditions in the Arctic have important differences that need to be considered • Geology • Physical geography • Ecosystems and rate of ecosystem change • Culture • Infrastructure and access • Climate and weather • Data – depth, breath, and length of record • Rapid adaptation of new and emerging technologies, stronger partnerships and data fusion, and improved modeling, forecasting and planning can be achieved!

33. Questions?