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THE QPF COMPONENT OF THE 2010 SPRING EXPERIMENT

THE QPF COMPONENT OF THE 2010 SPRING EXPERIMENT. 1 David Novak, 1 Faye Barthold, 1 Mike Bodner, 1 Ed Danaher, 1 Rich Bann, 1 Bob Oravec, 1 Bruce Sullivan 2 Steve Weiss, 2 Andy Dean, 4 Ming Xue, 3 Adam Clark, and 5 Tara Jensen

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THE QPF COMPONENT OF THE 2010 SPRING EXPERIMENT

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  1. THE QPF COMPONENT OF THE 2010 SPRING EXPERIMENT 1David Novak, 1Faye Barthold, 1Mike Bodner, 1Ed Danaher, 1Rich Bann, 1Bob Oravec, 1Bruce Sullivan 2Steve Weiss, 2Andy Dean, 4Ming Xue, 3Adam Clark, and 5Tara Jensen 1Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 2Storms Prediction Center 3National Severe Storms Lab 4CAPS/OU 5Developmental Testbed Center Plus a host of supporting individuals (SPC/NSSL/OU-CAPS)

  2. Medium Range HPC Operations Hydrometeorolgical guidance for: QPF Winter Weather • NWS field offices • Other NCEP centers • Federal/state agencies • Aviation • Media • Private sector • International partners • Academic community • General public Model Diagnostics Short Term Weather Surface Analysis Tropical Alaska Med. Range Daily Weather Map

  3. HPC Operations Hydrometeorolgical guidance for: QPF Winter Weather Medium Range • NWS field offices • Other NCEP centers • Federal/state agencies • Aviation • Media • Private sector • International partners • Academic community • General public Model Diagnostics Short Term Weather Surface Analysis Tropical Alaska Med. Range Daily Weather Map

  4. HPC’s Aviation Role HPC ↔ AWC ↔ ↔ WFOs Short-range Fronts and Precip

  5. Experiment Motivation • Convection impacts the National Airspace System • Convection leads to flash flooding - a leading cause of weather-related deaths • Typically a warm-season phenomenon • Warm-season precipitation is difficult

  6. The hope of high resolution • Convective parameterization a source of error • Convection allowing runs (~4 km grid spacing): • Improve system mode [e.g. Fowle and Roebber (2003)] • Improve diurnal cycle and propagation [Weisman et al. (2008)] • Storm Scale ensembles can quantify uncertainty of convection

  7. 2010 Spring Experiment OVERALL GOAL: Explore use of convection-allowing models (~4 km) 3 components (Severe, Aviation, QPF) 5 week program (May 17- June 18) ~70 participants from research, academia, and operational communities. Rotation thru desks Facilitator at each desk QPF Goal: Do convection-allowing models help with the warm season QPF problem?

  8. Daily QPF Schedule Subjective verification of previous days forecast Synoptic overview Use high-res guidance to produce 6 hr PQPF .50” and 1” thresholds Forecasts valid 18-00Z and 00-06Z Subjective evaluation of previous days experimental model guidance Afternoon briefing and discussion of daily forecasts and evaluation activities

  9. Experimental Ensemble Products Probability Matched Mean Max QPF (based on 4km SSEF members) PROB. MATCHED MEAN SSEF MEAN MAX QPF

  10. Experimental Ensemble Products Neighborhood Probabilities -probability of event within ~80 km of a point NEPROB SSEF PROB

  11. DETERMINISTIC RESULTS

  12. ENSEMBLE RESULTS Impressive performance of the Storm Scale Ensemble Courtesy Adam Clark, NSSL

  13. ResultsPost processed guidance (CAPS ensemble) • Ensemble mean—useful, provided a realistic depiction of amounts and coverage • Probability matched mean—question about validity of using this technique on a national scale • Recommendation: recalculate using a regional scheme • Neighborhood probabilities—probabilities often too high and coverage too broad • Recommendation: recalculate using different smoothing parameters • Ensemble maximum precipitation—not useful, values too high

  14. LIMITATIONS/CHALLENGES Still have placement and amplitude errors/failures Takes a long time to run the models Slow to load on operational workstations Experiment did not cover CONUS How to accelerate operational implementation of a storm scale ensemble?

  15. Plans for 2011 • Add the 30-36 h (06-12Z) forecast period • Nocturnal precipitation maximum • Expand post-processed guidance • Spaghetti plots • Bias-corrected QPF from SREF and SSEF • Expand hydromet participation • RFCs, WFO service coordination hydrologists, etc.

  16. SUMMARY Although certainly not perfect, convection-allowing model guidance is useful and can improve warm season QPF - Storm Scale Ensemble particularly impressive Forecasters excited about guidance Gaining experience with model biases and information about how to best incorporate convection-allowing guidance into the forecast process Next year’s experiment being planed http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2010/

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