Conflict in Developing Societies

1. Conflict in Developing Societies Lecture 12

2. The Nature of the Problem

3. Things are Not Always What They Seem. Ethnic Conflict Is Not: • “Conflict fuelled by age-old loyalties and cultural differences.” • “Ethnic Groups lying in wait for one another nourishing age-old hatreds.” • Irrational Violence

4. Ethnic Conflict Is Conflict Over Who Gets What • The State Controls Access to Resources. • Group that Controls the State Controls Resources. • Politics Revolves Around Competition Between Groups for Control of the State in Order to Gain Resources. • When Groups are Defined Along Ethnic Lines, Competition is Between Ethnic Groups.

5. The War in Yugoslavia • Pre-War Yugoslavia • Ethnic Composition • 8 Regions • 3 religious groups • Government Structure • De-Centralized Federal Structure • Federal Institutions Represents Republics • Economy • Command Style • Relatively Prosperous

6. The Emergence of Conflict • De-Stabilizing Shocks in 1980s • Oil and Debt Crises • Widening Income Disparities Between Northern Yugoslavia and Southern Yugoslavia. • Economic Crisis Creates the Need for Political and Economic Reform

7. Political and Economic Reform • Serbs Push for Greater Centralization • Want to use state power to redistribute wealth from Northern Republics to Southern Republics • Slovenes and Croats Want Greater De-Centralization • Reform Provides an Opportunity for Reduction of Government Intervention and “marketization” of the economy. • The Two Reform Agendas are Incompatible

8. Rising Nationalism • Origins of Serb Nationalism Lie in Kosovo in Late 1980s • Albanian Majority Pressures for Greater Political Rights • Serbs Respond with Military Force • Milosovic uses Kosovo as opportunity, seizes power in Serbia. • Uses Nationalism to Mobilize popular support for his rule and his goals. Slobodan Milosovic

9. Milosovic Extends His Power • Exploiting Nationalism, Milosovic Installs “Puppet Leaders” in Vojvodina, Montenegro, Kosovo. • Captures Four of the Eight Votes in the Collective Presidency. • Serbia Likely to Prevail in Wider Struggle Over Political and Economic Reform.

10. The Road To War: Slovenia • Fall of 1989, Slovenia Prepares for Independence • Passes Constitutional Amendments that Deny Federal Government Authority • Milosovic Severs Economic Relations with Slovenia • December 1990 Referendum; 88% Vote for Independence. • Slovenia Secedes, June 1991

11. What Should Serbia Do? • Serbia Begins to Redraw Boundaries to Incorporate All Serbs Living in Yugoslavia into Greater Serbia. • Direct Challenge to Croatia and Bosnia, Each of Which have Large Serbian Population. • Security Dilemma Emerges • War Spreads to Croatia, June 1991 – January 1992 UN Peacekeepers Enter

12. Bosnia • Bosnia is Microcosm of Yugoslavia • October 1991, Croats and Muslims Vote to Make Bosnia Independent • Bosnian Serbs Leave Bosnian Parliament, Establish Serb Autonomous Region • Bosnian War Begins in April 1992, Ends in 1995. • UN Peacekeepers Inserted.

13. Ethnic Conflict? • War in Former Yugoslavia Was Not “Irrational Violence” Fuelled by Ancient Hatreds. • Political Conflict Over Who Gets What Emerged From Process of Political and Economic Reform. • Leadership Turns to Nationalism to Mobilize Public to Support their Goals. • Rising Nationalism Creates a Security Dilemma Situation in Which No One Feels Secure.

15. “Ethnic Conflict” in Rwanda • Two Groups—Hutus and Tutsis. Historically: • Tutsis were Herdsman • Hutus were Cultivators • Group Identity Acquires Economic and Class Meaning • Cows More Valuable Asset, thus Tutsis are Wealthier than Hutus • Tutsis Rule Rwanda in 19th Century; Favored By Colonial Powers For Political, Military, and Administrative Positions. (DemRep. Congo)

16. Hutu Revolution • During Late 1950s Hutus Begin to Mobilize to Take Power from Tutsis (De-colonization) • First “Ethnic” Violence Takes Place in 1959, as Hutus Begin to Kill Tutsis. • By October 1960, Hutu Revolution Successful. • Begin to Oppress Tutsis Just as Tutsis Had Oppressed Hutus. • Large Number of Tutsis Flee Country.

17. The 1980s and 1990s • Deteriorating Economic Conditions • Collapse of Coffee Prices • IMF Stabilization Package • Extremely High Population Density • The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Attacks Rwanda in October 1990. • Composed of Tutsi Refugees Living in Uganda • Hutu Gov’t Uses War as Justification to: • Expand the Military—From 5,000 to 40,000. • Mobilize Population for Sacrifices Needed to Defend Regime.

18. The Arusha Peace Accord • August 4, 1993: RPF and the Rwandan Government Sign a Peace Accord. • Blueprint for Power Sharing Arrangement Among the Hutu Regime, Internal Opposition Parties, and the RPF. • This Shift Toward “Democracy” Generated Opposition Among the Extremists Within the Ruling Hutu Government. • Extremists Believe that President Had Been Too Eager to Negotiate Peace and Had Compromised Too Much in Doing So.

19. April – July 1994 • The Genocide Was Based on Months of Preparation by the Hutu Government—Using Hutu Nationalism to Mobilize Public Support. • April 6, 1994, the Rwandan President Is Assassinated (most Likely By Extremist Members of His Own Government). • Assassination Is Trigger for Violence. • Eliminate Hutu Opposition Leaders • Eliminate Tutsis • 800,000 People Killed in 100 Days (Of a Total Population of 6 Million).

20. Ethnic Conflict? • Poverty and Further Deterioration of Economic Conditions. • Use of State to Enhance Position of Your Group and Deny Others Equal Opportunities. • War Over Control of Government. • Government Mobilization of Anti-Tutsi Sentiment in Conjunction with the Broader Objectives Being Pursued through War.

21. The Logic of War in the Liberal Vision • Deteriorating Economic Conditions • Zero-Sum Politics • No Democratic Tradition of Compromise and Power Sharing • Politics Becomes a Winner Take All Affair • Conflict in Environment of Economic Deprivation Often Produces Civil War. • The Absence of Prosperity/Economic Interdependence and of Democracy Creates a Climate in Which War Can Flourish.