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Performance of Global Forecast System

Performance of Global Forecast System. NCMRWF/IMD (INDIA) Presentation for Annual performance evaluation of NCEP production suite at NCEP, Maryland, USA during 6-8 December 2011. Care-takers. NCMRWF Data/monitoring : Munmun Das Gupta, Indira Rani

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Performance of Global Forecast System

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  1. Performance of Global Forecast System NCMRWF/IMD (INDIA) Presentation for Annual performance evaluation of NCEP production suite at NCEP, Maryland, USA during 6-8 December 2011

  2. Care-takers • NCMRWF • Data/monitoring: Munmun Das Gupta, Indira Rani • Analysis : V S Prasad • Model/post : Saji Mohandas • Verification : Gopal Iyengar • GEFS : E N Rajagopal • IMD • Data/monitoring: S D Kotal • Analysis/Model/Verfication : V R Durai • Co-ordinator : S.K.Roy Bhowmik

  3. Numerical Weather Prediction System of NCMRWF Data Reception Global Data Assimilation Users Forecast Models Global Observations SURFACE from land stations Observation quality checks & monitoring Global Model T574L64 10day FCST GTS IMD INCOIS RTH, IMD SHIP BUOY Visuali-sation NKN ISRO(MT) Global Analysis (GSI) Initial state 24x7 NKN Upper Air RSRW/ PIBAL Meso-scale Data Assimilation & Model NCMRWF OBSERVATION PROCESSING Aircraft Global Forecast Model ( 9hr Fcst – first guess ) Statistical Interpolation Model(location specific FCST) Satellite 45mbps proposed dedicated link High Resolution Satellite Obsn Internet (FTP) Other sectors NKN once in a day for 00 UTC 4 times a day for 00,06,12,18 UTC NESDIS EUMETSAT

  4. GFS Models (NCMRWF) – Current status High Performance Computing Systems

  5. Recent developments in NCMRWF GFS system Implementation of the T382L64 GFS from May 2010 (latest versions of upgraded model and GSI) Assimilation of additional data in T382L64 GFS The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) winds Rainfall rates (TRMM, SSMI) NOAA19 radiances Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances GPSRO (COSMIC) Implementation of the T574L64 GFS from mid-November, 2010 (July 2010 Version) Implementation of latest NCEP version of T574L64 (from June, 2011)

  6. Time line - NCMRWF GFS

  7. Physical Parameterization schemes in T382L64 and T574L64

  8. Differences of the T574L64 GSI Data Assimilation system compared to T382L64

  9. Types of observations Assimilated in GFS

  10. Count of different types of observations over Indian Region (received at NCMRWF at 00 UTC from 1 to 25 of months June, July, August, and September 2011)

  11. Data Reception: NCMRWF vs ECMWF (S-W Monsoon, 2011) (Average number of observations received in 24 hours ) RED COLOUR INDICATES LESS DATA ; BLUE COLOUR INDICATES COMPARABLE DATA

  12. Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Vector Wind Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.

  13. Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Vector Wind Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.

  14. Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Moisture Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.

  15. Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Moisture Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.

  16. Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Temperature Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.

  17. Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line) Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Temperature Fits (Bias and RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.

  18. Global Circulation Features

  19. Day 05 Forecast Errors 850 hPa Zonal Wind JJA 2011 NCMRWF NCEP

  20. Regional Circulation Features

  21. ANA D03 ERR T382 T574

  22. ANA D05 ERR T382 T574

  23. ANA D03 ERR T382 T574

  24. ANA D05 ERR T382 T574

  25. ANA D03 ERR T382 T574

  26. ANA D05 ERR T382 T574

  27. T382 T574

  28. T382 T574

  29. T382 T574

  30. T382 T574

  31. VERIFICATION AGAINST ITS OWN ANALYSIS • Models: T574, T382 and UKMO • Parameters : Zonal & Meridional Wind, Geo-potential Height, Temperature, Relative Humidity • forecast and analysis fields used are valid for 00UTC and the forecasts are based on initial condition valid for 00UTC. • computed the scores using the data at 1 degree resolution from all the models.

  32. T574 T382 UKMO

  33. T574 T382 UKMO

  34. RMSE against own analysis 850 hPa Zonal Wind

  35. RMSE against own analysis 850 hPa Meridonal Wind

  36. Factors and methods used In standardized verificatlon of NWP products Verification agalnst analysis Area Northem hemisphere extratropics (90°N ‑ 20°N )(all inclusive) Tropics (20°N ‑ 20°S)(all inclusive) Southem hemisphere extratropics (20°S ‑ 90°S)(all inclusive) Grid Verifying analysis is the centre's on a latitude‑longitude grid 2.5° x 2.5°; origin (0°,0°) VariablesMSL pressure, geopotential height, temperature, winds LevelsExtratropics:MSL, 500 hPa, 250 hPa Tropics:850 hPa, 250 hPa Time 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h,120h,144h,168h,192h, 216h, 240h ... ScoresMean error, root‑mean‑square error (rmse), anomaly correlation, S1 skill score, root‑mean‑square vector wind error (rmseV)

  37. Verification against observations The seven networks used in verification against radiosondes consist of radiosondes stations Iying within the following geographical area: North America25°N ‑ 60°N 50°W ‑ 145°W Europe/North Africa25°N ‑ 70°N 10°W ‑ 28°E Asia 25°N ‑ 65°N 60°E ‑ 145°E Australia/New Zealand 10°S ‑ 55°S 90°E ‑ 180°E Australia/New Zealand 10°S ‑ 55°S 90°E ‑ 180°E Tropics 20°S ‑ 20°N all longitudes N. Hemisphere Extratropics 20°N ‑ 90°N all longitudes S.Hemisphere Extratropics 20°S ‑90°S all longitudes

  38. Anomaly correlation of 10 day forecasts of 500 hPa Geopotential Height over the Northern Hemisphere from the T382 (black line) and T574 (red line) GFS The anomaly correlation values are comparatively higher in the T574 GFS with a gain of 1 day in the skill of the forecasts. In the lower panel the line plot depicts the difference of the forecasts of Geopotential Height of the T574 GFS from the T382 GFS. The difference values outside the histograms are statistically significant at 95% level of confidence.

  39. RMSE of 10 day forecasts of 850 hPa Zonal Wind over the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) region from the T382 (black line) and T574 (red line) GFS The RMSE values are comparatively lower in the T574 GFS with a gain of 1 day in the skill of the forecasts. In the lower panel the line plot depicts the difference of the forecasts of Zonal Wind of the T574 GFS from the T382 GFS. The difference values outside the histograms are statistically significant at 95% level of confidence.

  40. Verification of Day 01-05 Forecast against Observations over TropicsRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE) 850 hPa winds in m/sJUNE 2011

  41. Verification of Day 03 Forecasts against Radiosondes over India (2005-2011)Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 850 hPa winds in m/s T254 T382 T80 T574

  42. Monsoon Depressions

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