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Overview on NCEP’s global aerosol forecast system

Overview on NCEP’s global aerosol forecast system. Global aerosol prediction at NCEP. NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) NCEP’s global in-line aerosol forecast system Successful example of transitioning NASA research to NCEP operations

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Overview on NCEP’s global aerosol forecast system

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  1. Overview on NCEP’s global aerosol forecast system

  2. Global aerosol prediction at NCEP NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) • NCEP’s global in-line aerosol forecast system • Successful example of transitioning NASA research to NCEP operations • Build upon NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS), a common modeling framework using Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) • Provide 5-day dust-only forecast since 2012 • Daily graphics are posted at EMC web site: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/NGAC/html/realtime.ngac.html • Model Configuration: • Resolution: T126 (~ 1°x1°) L64 • AGCM: NCEP’s NEMS GFS • Aerosol: GSFC’s GOCART

  3. Why include aerosols in the predictive systems? • Improve weather forecasts and climate predictions by taking into account of aerosol effects on radiation and clouds • Improve assimilation of satellite observations by properly accounting for aerosol effects • Provide aerosol (lateral and upper) boundary conditions for regional air quality predictions • Produce quality aerosol information that address societal needs and stakeholder requirements, e.g., UV index, air quality, ocean productivity, visibility, solar energy, and sea surface temperature retrievals.

  4. NASA GOCART Module • In-line chemistry advantage • Consistency: no spatial-temporal interpolation and same physics parameterization • Efficiency: lower overall CPU costs and easier data management • Interaction: Allows for feedback to meteorology GOCART diagram provided by Peter Colarco (GSFC)

  5. Multi-Model Aerosol Ensemble NGAC dust products contribute global multi-model ensemble (by International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction, ICAP) and regional multi-model ensemble (by WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, SDS-WAS) ICAP global MME. Seven members for dust AOD, including NCEP, NRL, ECMWF, GMAO, JMA, UKMO & BSC. WMO SDS-WAS regional MME. Nine members including 6 global models (NCEP, ECMWF, GMAO, NRL, UKMO & BSC)

  6. Verification: in situ AERONET observations Retro Daily (30-day window)

  7. Verification: Satellite observations Seasonal variation (2013) NGAC MODIS Case study (Jul 29 – Aug 3, 2013) VIIRS dust mask NGAC MODIS OMI

  8. Verification: Global multi-model ensemble NGAC ICAP MME (7-members) ICAP is a global aerosol forecasting working group for aerosol forecast centers and data providers. NCEP leverages collaborations with other recognized world experts in operational aerosol forecasting

  9. Q1FY16 upgrade: Multi-species forecast using near-real-time smoke emissions from satellites Temporal and spatial variation in smoke emissions from GBBEPx NGAC Organic Carbon AOD ICAP smoke AOD MME GBBEPx: Global Biomass Burning Emissions Product-eXtended, blended from Geo (NESDIS’s smoke products) and Polar (GSFC’s smoke products)

  10. FY17 Upgrade: Improving NCEP global aerosol forecasts using JPSS S-NPP VIIRS aerosol products • Aerosol Data Assimilation • Values and benefits • Provide initialization for aerosol forecasts and thus improve aerosol forecast skills • Support NCEP’s efforts to develop an unified global coupled data assimilation and modeling suite • Observations: VIIRS AOD initially; extended to use multi-sensor/multi-platform aerosol observations

  11. Ongoing activities and future directions Strategic Approach New capability via phased implementation Enhancing physics suite in NCEP global models New products for various applications, driven by user priorities

  12. Concluding Remarks • NCEP implemented NGAC for global dust forecast in 2012, and will upgrade NGAC for multi-species forecast in Q12016. • Primary outcomes of the global aerosol modeling/assimilation system: • Allow aerosol impacts on weather forecasts and climate predictions to be considered • Enable NCEP to provide quality aerosol products serving wide-range stakeholders, such as health professionals, aviation authorities, policy makers, and solar energy plant managers. • The new aerosol capability is established via collaborations with NASA GSFC, NESDIS STAR, the ICAP working group, and universities. NCEP will continue leveraging partner capabilities and expertise. • Efforts are underway to provide new aerosol products for downstream applications. NCEP will continue engaging users in collecting, assessing, and prioritizing requirements.

  13. Multi-agency collaborations toward developing global aerosol forecasting system at NCEP NCEP EMC team Jun Wang (aerosol modeling, project POC) Mark Iredell (NEMS team lead) Shrinivas Moorthi (physics) Yu-Tai Hou (radiation-aerosols) Henry Juang (dynamics) Hui-Ya Chuang (post-processing) Weiyu Yang (ESMF infrstructure) Perry Shafran (verification) Downstream applications (Jeff McQueen) NCEP Collaborators NASA/GSFC: Arlindo da Silva, Mian Chin, Peter Colarco, Anton Darmenov, DonifanBarahona NESDIS/STAR: ShobhaKondragunta Universities: Sarah Lu, Qilong Min, Sheng-Po Chen (University at Albany, SUNY) Xiaoyang Zhang (South Dakota State University)

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