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South African Weather Service Presentation. By William. Msimanga. Division: Operations South African Weather Service. Contents. 1. Warning against Severe Weather Alert 2. Damages due to weather related 3. Interpretation of Weather Forecast 4. Seasonal rainfall forecast 5. Summary
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South African Weather Service Presentation By William. Msimanga Division: Operations South African Weather Service NFC-PRE-20131017.1
Contents 1. Warning against Severe Weather Alert 2. Damages due to weather related 3. Interpretation of Weather Forecast 4. Seasonal rainfall forecast 5. Summary 6. End NFC-PRE-20131017.1
1.Warning against Severe Weather Alert NFC-PRE-20131017.1 3
Role Of Weather Early Warning Systems • The objective of early warning: “to empower threatened communities/DMc’s to act in sufficient time and manner to reduce loss of life and damage to property. • Inhlosoyezixhwayisozesimozezuluukwazisaabantuabangathintekaukuze babe nesikhathiesanelesokuzilungiselela, nokuzifihlakanyenempahlayabo, kanjalonokuthathaizinyatheloezifanele. NFC-PRE-20131017.1
SWWS Increasing Urgency through Alert Levels NFC-PRE-20131017.1 5
2. DAMAGES DUE TO WEATHER RELATED NFC-PRE-20131017.1 6
3. Interpretation of Weather Forecast NFC-PRE-20131017.1 10
Interpretation of weather prediction • 30% of rain: means that there is a 30% chance that will rain on your head, anywhere in that area during the period • 60% of rain: means that there is a 60% chance of rain that will fall anywhere you are • 80% of rain: means that there isa 80% chanceof rain that will fall where you are • 80% does NOT mean that the rain will be heavier that 30%, it is just more likely to rain whereyou are
Rainfall chart and interpretation NFC-PRE-20131017.1
4. Seasonal Rainfall Forecast NFC-PRE-20131017.1 13
November-December-January • There’s an indication of probabilities for above-normal rainfall totals are expected for most parts of South Africa FCAST-PRE-20131017.1
SUMMER RAINFALL REGION The most likely weather-related impacts • Expected Weather: • Typical summer thunderstorms, with severe thunderstorms in places • Consequences: • Moderate risk of localised flooding from heavy downpours • Moderate risk of other thunderstorm related hazards, such as hail, lightning, tornadoes, strong winds Nov, Dec, Jan
5. Summary • There is an indication that NDJ enhanced probabilities indicated for above normal rainfall • This does not rule out the chances of severe thunderstorms developing across the country, causing significant damages in places • SAWS will continue monitoring the short term weather forecast and issued the weather alerts in case of any developments during the season NFC-PRE-20131017.1
6. End of Presentation NFC-PRE-20131017.1