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Clean Fuels Forecast Advisory Committee

Join us for the Clean Fuels Forecast Advisory Committee Conference at DEQ Headquarters in Portland on September 12th, 2019, from 9:00 to 11:30. Discuss fuel volume forecast, deficit/credit parameters, supply forecast, and more. Contact Mark McMullen for details.

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Clean Fuels Forecast Advisory Committee

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  1. Clean Fuels Forecast Advisory Committee Conference Room 601, DEQ Headquarters 700 Multnomah St NE, Portland September 12th 2019, 9:00 – 11:30

  2. Agenda • Introductions • Meeting Minutes • Fuel Volume (demand) Forecast • 2019 Q1 Data • Behavioral Reporting Shift? • Forecast • Deficit/Credit Parameters • Deficit/Credit Forecast • Fuel Supply Forecast • Next steps • Adjourn

  3. Fuel Volume (demand) forecast • Gasoline • Diesel • Ethanol • Biodiesel • Renewable Diesel • Electricity • Natural Gas • Propane

  4. ** On-road electricity credits include estimate for residential charging.

  5. Behavioral Pull-forward of reported volumes due to CI Target drop in 2021

  6. Behavioral Pull-forward of reported volumes due to CI Target drop in 2021

  7. Motor Gasoline(Gasoline and Ethanol) • 2020 v. 2018 growth includes add-factors as follows: • -0.3 percentage points for ODOT fuel tracking • 0.0 percentage points for behavioral pull forward due to C.I. drop.

  8. Diesel(Including biofuels) • 2020 v. 2018 growth includes add-factors as follows: • -1.9 percentage points for ODOT fuel tracking • 0.0 percentage points for behavioral pull forward due to C.I. drop.

  9. Ethanol • 2020 v. 2018 growth includes add-factors as follows: • -0.4 percentage points for ODOT fuel tracking • 0.0 percentage points for behavioral pull forward due to C.I. drop.

  10. Biodiesel • 2020 v. 2018 growth includes add-factors as follows: • -1.8 percentage points for ODOT fuel tracking • 0.0 percentage points for behavioral pull forward due to C.I. drop.

  11. Renewable Diesel • 2020 v. 2018 growth includes add-factors as follows: • -8.7 percentage points for ODOT fuel tracking • 0.0 percentage points for behavioral pull forward due to C.I. drop.

  12. On-road electricity

  13. Natural Gas

  14. Propane (LPG)

  15. Preliminary 2020 Consumption Forecast

  16. Energy Densities and Carbon Intensities

  17. Supply • “to develop a fuel supply forecast to project the availability of fuels to Oregon necessary for compliance with the low carbon fuel standards.” • “(a) An estimate of the potential volumes of gasoline, gasoline substitutes and gasoline alternatives and diesel, diesel fuel substitutes and diesel alternatives available to Oregon.” • Data obtained from • Clean Fuels Program • Renewable Fuels Association • National Biodiesel Board • Energy Information Administration • Environmental Protection Agency • Individual Suppliers (i.e., Guardian Energy, Pacific Ethanol, SeQuential Biodiesel, etc.)

  18. Supply Available to Oregon Methodology • Looks at reported volumes in 2018 by facility for each biofuel. • Assumes existing supply chains remain in place throughout the compliance period – currently 2020. • Assumes that under broad market conditions regarding consumer demand, capacity in production for certified producers is “available to Oregon”. • Assumes the higher nameplate capacity of either that reported to the Clean Fuels Program in the certification process or that reported to the Energy Information Administration.

  19. Ethanol Supply(Suppliers to Oregon, 2018) 2020 Demand forecast equals 175.5 million gallons.

  20. Biodiesel Supply(Suppliers to Oregon, 2018) 2020 Demand forecast equals 54.6 million gallons.

  21. Renewable Diesel Supply(Suppliers to Oregon, 2018) 2020 Demand forecast equals 27.7 million gallons. Data from the Clean Fuels Program.

  22. Renewable Natural Gas Supply(Suppliers to Oregon, 2018) 2020 Demand forecast equals 2.5 million gallons.

  23. Next Steps • Distribute report for review by September 18th. Please reply all with any substantive issues regarding numbers or methodology. • Teleconference (if necessary) scheduled for September 26th, 1:30 – 3:30 pm. • Forecast published on or before October 3rd, 90 days prior to the onset of the compliance period.

  24. Thank you for your participation. • Questions? • Contact Mark McMullen, State Economist • Office of Economic Analysis • (503) 378-3455 • Mark.mcmullen@Oregon.gov • All forecast related materials published at: • www.oregon.gov/das/OEA/Pages/forecastcleanfuels.aspx

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