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Experience from AgMIP and next steps

Experience from AgMIP and next steps. Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen. Climate impacts on maize yields in 2045 (without CO 2 effekc). Müller et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press. Climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2045. Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press.

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Experience from AgMIP and next steps

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  1. Experience from AgMIP and next steps Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen

  2. Climate impacts on maize yields in 2045(without CO2 effekc) Müller et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press

  3. Climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2045 Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press

  4. Issues to be clarified (or harmonized?) • Baseline/reference, timeline • Economicinputs • GDP, Population • Technology shifters(TFP orfactorsaving) • Elasticitiesover time • Policies (trade, agric., energy, …) • Land supply • CC-relatedinputs • CC impacttranslation? • Spatialaggregation? • Adaptation measures? • Outputs • GDP orwelfarechange? • Whichprices (producers, exports, trade-wheighted, …)? • Trade flows • Physicalunits • others? • General • Ambition? Timeline? • Protocols, reporting • Socialcostsofcarbon? • Do/Can the GDP effects matter?

  5. Next steps • Harmonized CGE comparison? • Minimum setting for a multi-sector economic impact comparison? • Start: Integrate 2-3 sectors (agriculture, water, (SLR))? • No adaptation, present conditions, only initial market adjustment/crop switching? • Regional and sectoral aggregation? • Pre-select from impact models vs. Sampling from all model outputs? • "Average" damage functions vs. Specific function per impact model? • ENVISAGE: Second generation of damage functions, based on ISI-MIP data • Reconcile with ICIS, GEM-E3? • Timeline, next steps: • Define regions/sectors; create baseline SSP2 (cf. AgMIP); translate impacts • Telecon/Skype: second half of November • Resources?

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