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North American Drought Briefing for April 2014 and February- April 2014

North American Drought Briefing for April 2014 and February- April 2014. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for April 2014 and February- April 2014

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor April 2014and February- April 2014 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James Noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States March • Dryness over the eastern and central U.S, and heavy rainfall over the Pacific Northwest. April: • Below normal rainfall over the Southern Plains and above normal rainfall over the Eastern United States and the Pacific Northwest. Texas • Texas and Oklahoma had below normal rainfall for a season California • Below normal rainfall over northern California and the raining season is about to end

  4. SPI SPI3 • Texas and the Great Plains: severe drought • Heavy rainfall for the past 3 months over the PNW transferred to positive SPI3 • California drought got relieve but they are out of their raining season. • Southern Plains: both SPI3, SPI6 show severe drought

  5. The UW multi model Ensemble EMC/NCEP UW JAN California: even though the SPI3 does not show drought, but SM indicates that they are still under drought Severe drought extended from the Southern Plains northward

  6. Runoffsimilar to SM EMC/NCEP The current 3 -month runoff indicates dryness over California and the Gulf states eastern Texas, La. 3-month mean Drought over California And Texas and the Great Plains

  7. March 2014 FEB 2014 Streamflow Percentiles (USGS) Dry: California and Arizona: slightly worsen Dryness over Texas: severe drought extended to the central Plains Wetness: Gulf States and the North eastern U.S. April 2014

  8. California reservoir level Red line– historical capacity Yellow –total capacity In Northern California, reservoirs are about 50-60% In Central California, it is about 30-50%

  9. UW west Coast region (1/16 deg) (Ca and PNW)http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor_cali/index.shtml

  10. Snotel Dry over the western U.S.

  11. Keetch-Byram Drought Index March 5

  12. New 4km product http://hrsl.arsusda.gov/drought Contribution from Martha Anderson

  13. Maximum and Minimum Temperature Warm over the western states Tmax: cool over the North Central Tmin: cool over Texas Warm over the Southeast

  14. Drought Monitor • Drought conditions over California : same as last month • Texas and Oklahoma : worsen

  15. El Nino WATCH • El Nino watch was issued • Warm +1C SSTA over the tropical Pacific near the dateline • Warm SSTAs over the West Coast • Warm SSTA over the East Coast

  16. Eq upper ocean heat anom

  17. Enhanced convection over the Central Pacific Recent OLRA

  18. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Started in February, negative OLRA (enhanced convection) are located near the dateline FEB 2014

  19. ENSO Plume

  20. March fcst El Nino Watch ENSO neutral until summer, then in JJA (JAS) 50% (60%0 El Nino will develop April

  21. NMME seasonal SST fcsts JJA 2014 ASO 2014

  22. CPC seasonal outlook Temp MJJ P MJJ

  23. CFS T382 T and P fcsts Temperature P fcsts Contribution from Dr. Jae Schemm

  24. NMME Temp fcsts June 2014 JJA 2014

  25. P NMME Fcsts Good monsoon and relieve for Texas June 2014 JJA 2014 ASO 2014 Jul2014

  26. FCSTs for May MSU ESP UW SPI6 fcst SPI3 fcst Princeton –MSU-EMC

  27. MSU FCSTs for June ESP UW SPI6 lead=2 mo GMAO-NASA Princeton-MSU-EMC GMAO NASA

  28. MSU FCSTs for July SPI6 l;ead=3 Princeton-MSU-EMC GMAO_NASA

  29. FCSTs for August GMAO-NASA Princeton_MSU-EMC MSU

  30. Drought Outlooks Seasonal Monthly

  31. Summary El Niño/La Nina: • ENSO-neutral, but Plume, consolidation forecasts agree that warm ENSO will develop by summer Current conditions: • Dry: Drought conditions over California (low sm and snow packs_ • Drought over the Southern Plains intensified and extended to Oklahoma Prediction: • ENSO Watch was issued neutral conditions will continue until spring., then there is 60% chance for El Nino to develop • California: rainfall events relieved drought somewhat, but SM , runoff and snow SWE and Snotal still show dry conditions. They are out of their raining season. • North American Monsoon: wet season • Texas drought: All indices show that drought conditions will continue for one-two months, then it depends on warm ENSO development and its impact

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