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North American Drought Briefing for April 2013 and FMA 2013

North American Drought Briefing for April 2013 and FMA 2013. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for April 2013 and FMA 2013

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor April 2013 and FMA 2013 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States • High lights: • April 2013 • above normal rainfall over the eastern U. S. relieved drought there • Rainfall over the Great Lake region increases the possibility for floods • California is still dry and April starts their dry season. • For seasonal mean, the Northeast , Texas and the west Coast except the Washington State had below normal precipitation

  4. SPI • Dryness increased in California. • Wetness over the Great Lake region and the Southeast indicates possibility for floods. • For SPI3, the western U.S. except the Washington state is still under drought • SPI3: shows dryness over Texas and the Northeast • Longer SPI12 and SPI24 both display the drought over last summer D3 D2 D1

  5. Streamflow percentile (USGS) • Low flow conditions in Texas, Southwest, Colorado , Wyoming, California and Nevada • Wetness over Washington and the Great Lake region • Conditions Improved over Kansas

  6. Red River: above flood stage for 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013 Red line– flooding stage

  7. RUNOFF percentiles U Washington 3-month accumulation Drought covered the southern plains, Kansas, Colorado, north Dakota Drought over California and Oregon Wetness over the Great Lake region

  8. U Washington Multi model SM information Total Soil moisture anomalies, SRI3 and SPI6 show: Dryness over the Southern Plains, Southwest, Central U. S. California and Nevada

  9. Snotel (SWE) Except Washington, Montana and Dakotas, the snotel was below normal Less than , 25% Less than 25%

  10. Keetch-Byram Drought index Fire in California

  11. Temperature Below normal over the northern Plains

  12. (2 week interval) Anomalies in Vegetation Cover Fraction Martha Anderson: USDA

  13. Feb 26,2013 Drought monitor • The eastern U.S. is free from drought. • Drought continues over the Southern Plains, • Drought improved over the North Central • the western states are still under drought except Washington and the upper Missouri River basin

  14. SSTA ENSO neutral condition in the Tropical Pacific, No ENSO alert Overall, SSTAs are weak.

  15. OLRA and 200hPa streamfn The MJO activity in the tropical Pacific Suppressed convection over the Central Pacific and enhanced convection over the western Pacific MJO contributed to the conditions in the Tropical Pacific

  16. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OL R) Anomalies for Ensemble mean GFS Time Mar Jun

  17. T and P fcsts for MJJ 2013 precip Temp

  18. ENSO fcsts near normal

  19. ENSO consensus fcst

  20. May NMME SST fcsts June ENSO neutral Strong positive SSTAs in the North Pacific Warm SSTAs over the north Atlantic for summer June July August

  21. NMME precip fcsts August NMME June NMME JJA July NMME

  22. ESP FCST UW ICs=3May2013 Month 1 May Lead=3 July June 2013 Month =2 June Runoff month=2 fcst March 2013

  23. EMC-Princeton-MSU fcsts May 23 May July June

  24. SPI NMME FCST for IC=April 2013

  25. NMME-spi6 fcts for JJA California: Drought continues through summer 4 out of 6 models indicate dryness over Texas Northeast remains dry

  26. seasonal Drought outlook Need to update Drought will improve over the Central U. S. Drought will intensify /persist over the western region and California

  27. Conclusions Ocean conditions : ENSO : Neutral North Pacific :Positive SSTAs over the North Pacific Drought: • The areas east of 95N are no longer under drought • Drought continues over the southern Plains, Central U. S. And the western states except Washington and the upper Missouri river basin • Drought intensified in California and Oregon

  28. Prediction • Oceanic conditions • ENSO normal and the positive SSTAs over the North Pacific will continue through summer. • Drought • All forecasts indicate that drought over the Central U. S. will improve in the next few months. • Drought will continue over the western states except Washington and the upper Missouri basin • Drought will intensify over California

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