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Overview of WWRP/WG-MWFR Activities - Enhancing Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research

This overview highlights the activities of the World Weather Research Programme's Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR). The group focuses on improving mesoscale models and pushing research questions in multiple forums. They also collaborate with other WMO groups and organize workshops on specific topics. The text includes information on past and future research projects and potential collaborations.

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Overview of WWRP/WG-MWFR Activities - Enhancing Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research

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  1. Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR) activities Dale Barker, WWRP/WG-MWFR Slides supplied by Jeanette Onvlee, Chair (MWFR) THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  2. Membership (DA Expertise) • Jeanette Onvlee (KNMI, Netherlands, Chair) • Dale Barker (Met Office, UK) • Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI, Japan) • Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ. Hohenheim, Germany) • Stephane Belair (Environment Canada) • Jimy Dudhia (NCAR, USA) • Mattias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck, Austria) • Yu Hui (CMA, China) New for 2011: • Peter Steinle (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) • Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy) THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  3. Activities • Focus on 0.5-5km grid size models, extratropics • Pushing mesoscale weather research questions in several fora • Help set up / involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, B08RDP, Sochi?) • Dedicated workshops on specific topics (e.g. Nowcasting10/2011). • Liaisons with other WMO WG (e.g. Thorpex/TIGGE-LAM, WWRP/NWC, JWGV, WGNE, DAOS? …) • Last year activities on: • Organize “grey zone” experimentation (WGNE context) • Define/promote worldwide standards for mesoscale verification, and routine model quality assessment and exchange (together with JWGV) • Make inventory of available mesoscale training material, gaps therein • Next (5th) meeting 10-11 September 2011, Berlin. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  4. Past, present and possible future RDP’s and FDP’s • MAP-DPHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region • COPS: Convective Orographic Precipitation Study. Intense observation campaign in Rhine Valley area, subsequent process and predictability studies, and assimilation experiments • Beijing 2008 RDP: development, improvement, intercomparison and demonstration of LAM EPS systems. Potential future WMO RDP/FDP: • Sochi 2014?: RDP/FDP on high-resolution nowcasting and NWP support of Sochi Winter Olympic Games activities (see later). • HYMEX? THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  5. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  6. 3. B08FDP support 3hour Rapid Update Cycle System THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  7. Technique characteristics for all participants in 2008 THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  8. Accumulated Precipitation ( 04pm Aug.8—06am Aug. 9) National Stadium Example 1: Successful service for opening ceremony (National Stadium)

  9. During the Opening Ceremony, 5 RDP participants forecast a probability of less than30% for 1mm,and 10mm<=10% CAMS NMC JMA 30% ZAMG Canada NCEP 30% Courtesy Yihong Duan, CMA

  10. FROST-2014: FORECAST and RESEARCH in the OLYMPIC SOCHI TESTBED To improve, develop, demonstrate, and exploit: To improve understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in winter complex terrain: To demonstrate/deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers in order to verify and quantify societal benefits of nowcasts and forecasts • Enhanced nowcasting observations in winter complex terrain; • mesoscale (250m-2km) deterministic forecasts of meteorological conditions in complex terrain environment; • regional EPS forecast products (>7km res); • nowcasts of high impact weather phenomena in complex terrain. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  11. Thoughts on DAOS/MWFR Links • WWRP/MWFR (convective-scale DA, <1day) complements WWRP/THORPEX/DAOS (Global DA, 1->=14day). • MWFR closest links so far with other WWRP groups: Nowcasting, Verification, etc. • Existing/potential MWFR/DAOS Interactions: • Shared expertise in DA techniques (tendency for global first, high-res after!) e.g. high-res. obs. sensitivities, but…. • Should MWFR provide guidance on high-res. DA for future global DA (e.g. cloud/precip DA)? • Provision of optimal (latest?) LBCs for MWFR RDP/FDPs. • Added value of high-res. DA vs global/regional NWP/DA. • Treatment of large-scales within high-resolution DA. • Observation selection for low/high-res DA. THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

  12. COPS RDP • Summer 2007: massive observation campaign • Subsequent analysis of IOP results: • Process studies on the convective life cycle, focussing on selected IOP cases • Research on new observation types: validation, intercomparison and joint interpretation, representativity studies, sensor synergy • Model validation studies (clouds, microphysics) • Tests of advanced data assimilation systems, development of observation operators, observation impact studies • Verification techniques and impact assessment of convective-permitting models • Joint COPS/D-PHASE Database collected, now generally available through DKRZ/Hamburg • COPS project complete in 2011 with production of QJRMS Special Issue. WGNE meeting, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

  13. JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set D-PHASE Achievements • Unprecedented data set model intercomparison / validation process studies (with COPS) test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX) Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR) • Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models

  14. D-PHASE Achievements Participation of users 45 end users institutions (civil protection ...) workshops & questionnaires feedback exchange of needs Scientific results  advances in ensemble hydrological modelling radar ensemble, high-resolution EPS, high-res reforecasting, fuzzy verification, economic forecast value, …. 22 peer reviewed papers 72 reports and ext. abs. 165 presentations BAMS Paper, Sept 2009

  15. Scientific issues • Mesoscale data assimilation: • What analysis setup is most appropriate for mesoscale/nowcasting? • How best to analyze moist processes, with minimal spinup? • How to add small scale information while retaining the strengths of the larger scale nesting analysis? • What is best way to use radar, cloud, hydrometeor information? • Convection and complex topography: • Grey zone issues (what to do between ~5-10km resolution – WGNE link) • How to best represent steep orography? • Surface modelling • Initiation and modelling of new, more realistic components (e.g. snow, urban) • High-quality high-resolution physiographic data • Predictability and probabilistic forecasting • What influences predictability on convection-permitting scales, and how to describe it? • Towards convection-permitting ensembles: practical methods, cross-fertilization of ensemble and DA techniques? • Underlying all: suitable verification and validation methods, coupled models WGNE meeting, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

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