Project on Conflict Prevention and Early Warning

1. Project on Conflict Prevention and Early Warning

2. Objective Develop a methodology to: • Assess existing and potential conflicts in Latin America for use by INTL.ORG in coordinating international activity in the region • Assess the impact of conflict on democracy in the region • Assess the capacity of democratic regimes to confront the multiple forms of violent conflict in the region

3. Theoretical Foundations for Understanding Democracy Theoretical Foundations for most approaches: • Schumpeter: democratic method-institutional arrangement to structure political decisions by individuals by means of competitive elections • Dahl: polyarchy-contestation and participation; implies the existence of civil and political freedoms • Linz: efficacy, effectiveness, legitimacy • efficacy: capacity of regime to find solutions to basic problems • effectiveness: capacity to implement policies with the desired results • legitimacy: shaped by efficacy and effectiveness

4. Theoretical Foundations for Understanding Democracy Schedler’s stages of democratic consolidation: • authoritarianism • electoral democracy • liberal democracy • advanced democracy

5. USAID Democracy and Governance Assessment STEP 1-Five dynamic variables: consensus, competition, inclusion, rule of law, good governance STEP 2- Key players, their interests, resources, alliances and strategies STEP 3- Institutional arenas in which political game is played, including incentives for democratic and antidemocratic behavior STEP 4- Adapting assessment to donor objectives and constraints From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments

6. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance: • Citizenship, law and rights • Representative and accountable government • Civil society and popular participation • International dimensions of democracy

7. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments World Bank Institute: • Process by which governments are selected, held accountable, monitored and replaced- voice & accountability; political stability and violence • Capacity to manage resources efficiently and to formulate, implement and enforce policies – quality regulatory framework; government effectiveness • Respect for economic and social institutions – control of corruption; rule of law

8. From Democratic Theory to Democracy Assessments UNDP • GOVERNANCE:exercise of economic, political and administrative authority to manage a country’s affairs and the means by which states promote social cohesion, integration and ensure well-being • Five focus areas: • Governing institutions • Public and private sector management • Decentralization • Civil society organizations • Governance in special circumstances

9. Conflict Prevention PIOOM-Five stages of conflict and two crisis thresholds: • Stage 1: peaceful stable situation • Stage 2: political tension situation Threshold 1: POLITICAL CRISIS • Stage 3: violent political conflict • Stage 4: low-intensity conflict Threshold 2: HUMANITARIAN CRISIS • Stage 5: high-intensity conflict

10. Conflict Prevention -mainstreaming conflict prevention: • Causes of violence: • Structural problems • Triggers • Four-stage model of conflict: • Discussion stage • Polarization stage • Segregation stage • Destruction stage

11. Conflict Prevention International Peace Academy-Five phases of conflict: • Potential conflict • Gestation of conflict • Trigger/Mobilization • Conflict/Escalation • Post-conflict

12. Conflict Prevention Linking Strategies of Conflict Prevention with phases of conflict (IPA): • Structural prevention: potential conflict (structural causes) • Conflict management/ prevention: gestation phase • Crisis management/preventive diplomacy: trigger/mobilization • Crisis/conflict management and termination: conflict escalation • Post-conflict peacebuilding: post-conflict

13. Limits of Existing Frameworks for Latin America Democracy literature (theoretical and assessments): • useful for understanding democratic regime transition and consolidation • needs to be refined to capture non-democratic groups and practices in secondary institutional arenas and society

14. Limits of Existing Frameworks for Latin America Conflict Prevention Frameworks: • existing stage models of conflict have limited utility when applied to conflict in Latin America where most conflicts: • are clustered in the Potential, Gestation, and Post-conflict phases, and • are unlikely to escalate as predicted by existing frameworks • need to be reconceptualized: • to analyze the range and phases of conflicts most prevalent in Latin America • to develop policy instruments appropriate for the region

15. Distinctiveness of the region Distinctiveness of the region

16. Bringing Together Democracy and Conflict

17. Political and Non-Political Conflict LowNonpolitical Political High Low Degree of Organization High

18. Types of Hypotheses on Violence and Crime • H1:transnational organized crime increases incidence of diffuse social and criminal violence • H2: sustained periods of organized political violence increases diffuse social and criminal violence • H3: perceptions of inadequate enforcement promote diffuse social and criminal violence and organized crime

19. Hypotheses on Violence and Democracy • H1: political and non-political violent conflict erodes social capital, trust, and community • H2: political and non-political violent conflict undermines citizen confidence in the ability of government to maintain order and protect life and property • H3: H1 and H2 lead to lower levels of participation • H4: H1 and H2 lead to citizen self-protection • H5: H1 and H2 lead to forms of private justice such as paramilitaries, death squads, etc.

20. First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict Prevention Two Dimensions: Democracy and Conflict DEMOCRACY: • Democratic regime: Procedures -Inclusion, participation, exclusion -Consensus on regime and rules -Competition (parties, ideas, programs) • Quality of democracy regime and society -Rule of Law: state capacity, unequal access, private justice, impunity -Transparency/ Corruption

21. First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict Prevention CONFLICT • Mapping conflict geographically (sub-regionally and nationally) and by social groups, gender and ethnicity -Applying criteria from Table 1: diffuse –organized, non-political -political -Testing hypotheses by exploring relationship among types of violence and between violent conflict and its impact on democratic regime and society

22. First Steps for a Regional Methodology on Conflict Prevention Towards Indicators and Data: After overview assessment of democracy and conflict, narrowing the study to key areas of crisis and potential crisis: Example: Rule of Law – mapping the actions of violent actors and victims Data collection (quantitative and qualitative) on: judicial processes in a variety of arenas: human rights, violent crime, ethnic conflict. Data from official sources, police, military, human rights groups, civil society organizations and NGOs, Victims Organizations. Impunity: Victim surveys (all violent crimes, political violence, ethnic and/or gender violence)– What percentage of violent crime is reported. Of those reported, how many crimes are brought to trial? How many lead to conviction of the perpetrator?

23. How a Regional Conflict Prevention Strategy can be used as an Early Warning System • Early Warning of what? • Most conflicts in the region will not lead to generalized armed conflict, civil war and state collapse. • Existing Early Warning Systems: - are oriented to other world regions and emphasize the monitoring and early warning of conflict. -do not develop remedial actions or policies • Two schools: 1) remote, computer-based models for forecasting violent conflict, 2) qualitative and filed based case studies • In Latin America, need to develop an Early Warning System that can understand the dynamics of “slow death” of democratic regimes as a result of multiple forms of violent conflict and citizen marginalization, as well as those flash points of broader national or sub-regional crisis or potential crisis.

24. Next Steps • Workshop to discuss methodology • Apply methodology: First case: June 2002 (Candidates: Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, other) Case studies conducted between and January 2003). • Refine methodology after each case study • Deliver final methodology and apply conflict prevention methodology and Early Warning System throughout the region