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NARCCAP Second Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns

NARCCAP Second Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research. Boulder, CO September 10-11, 2009. NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II. A2 Emissions Scenario. GFDL. CGCM3. HADCM3. CCSM3. CAM 3 Time slice 50km. GFDL

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NARCCAP Second Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns

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  1. NARCCAP Second Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO September 10-11, 2009

  2. NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM3 CAM3 Time slice 50km GFDL Time slice 50 km Provide boundary conditions 2041-2070 future 1971-2000 current CRCM Quebec, Ouranos RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz HADRM3 Hadley Centre MM5 Iowa State RSM Scripps WRF PNNL

  3. GCM-RCM Matrix AOGCMS RCMs

  4. Phase II (Climate Change) Results

  5. Temperature and precipitation changes with model agreement (2080-2099 minus 1980-1999) A1B Scenario

  6. Summer Temp Changes 2051-2070—1980-1999

  7. Change in Winter TemperatureCanadian Models Global Model Regional Model

  8. Change in Winter PrecipCanadian Models

  9. HadRM3Climate Change Winter Temperature Summer Temperature

  10. There is a consistency in the anticipated temperature change signal of HadRM3PvsHadCM3 RCM GCM DJF MAM JJA Projected seasonal changes in temperature, between 1971-2000 and 2041-2070

  11. HadRM3Climate Change Winter Precipitation Summer Precipitation

  12. Global Time Slice / RCM Comparison at same resolution (50km) A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL AOGCM NCAR CCSM Six RCMS 50 km GFDL AGCM Time slice 50 km CAM3 Time slice 50km compare compare

  13. Future-current Summer Temperatures GFDL CM2.1 GFDL AM2.1

  14. RegCM3 in GFDLChange in Summer Temperature

  15. RegCM3 in GFDLChange in Winter Temperature

  16. RegCM3 in GFDL% Change Precip - Winter

  17. Why quantification of uncertainty is important • Because the uncertainties are not going away any time soon • Because we need to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty • Because many resource managers need this information (but doesn’t have to be probabilistic information – can be a range of scenarios)

  18. Quantification of Uncertainty • The four GCM simulations already ‘situated’ probabilistically based on earlier work (Tebaldi et al., 2004) • RCM results nested in particular GCM would be represented by a probabilistic model (derived assuming probabilistic context of GCM simulation) • Use of performance metrics to differentially weight the various model results

  19. Probabilistic Information on Climate Change for Colorado For 2040-2060 compared to current 1971-2000 Based on global model results from the IPCC archive (about 21 models) Based on Tebaldi et al. 2005

  20. Probability of temperature change for Colorado, Spring- A2 scenario GFDL HadCM3 CGCM CCSM

  21. Change in Temperature Spring Canadian Global Model Canadian Regional Model -2 -1 0 1 2 3 5

  22. Probability of Change in Precipitation – A2 Scenario GFDL HadCM CCSM

  23. Change in Precipitation in Spring (%) Canadian global model Canadian regional model -50 -30 -10 0 10 30 50

  24. Spring Temperature Change 2041-2070 compared to 1971-2000 HadRM3 in HadCM3 CRCM in CGCM3 RegCM3 in GFDL -2 -1 0 1 2 3 5

  25. Change in Precipitation in Spring Regional Models HadRM3 in HadCM3 RegCM3 in GFDL CRCM in CGCM3 -50 -30 -10 0 10 30 50

  26. NARCCAP Project Timeline Phase IIa Current climate1 Future climate 1 Current and Future 2 Project Start AOGCM Boundaries available Phase 1 12/07 5/09 9/07 1/06 9/08 11/09 Archiving Procedures - Implementation Phase IIb Time slices

  27. Adaptation Planning for Water Resources • Develop adaptation plans for Colorado River water resources with stakeholders • Use NARCCAP scenarios, simple DS, statistical DS • Determine value of different types of higher resolution scenarios for adaptation plans • NCAR, USGS, B. Reclamation, and Western Water Initiative

  28. End

  29. Probability of temperature change for Colorado - A2 scenario GFDL CGCM CCSM HadCM3

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