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Thermal GEM assumptions

Thermal GEM assumptions. Erwan Hemery 12 May 2009. Number of peakers available. Engine capex and HR. Before: 15 peakers - 10 diesel and 5 gas, total capacity = 2500 MW Now: 37 peakers - 24 diesel and 13 gas, total capacity = 2960 MW.

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Thermal GEM assumptions

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  1. Thermal GEM assumptions Erwan Hemery 12 May 2009

  2. Number of peakers available Engine capex and HR • Before: 15 peakers - 10 diesel and 5 gas, total capacity = 2500 MW • Now: 37 peakers - 24 diesel and 13 gas, total capacity = 2960 MW • The capex decreases with the installed capacity and the capex increases with the efficiency – intercool system 15-20% more expensive Reference: GTW handbook 2009

  3. Peakers details Diesel peakers Location: Marsden, Otahuhu, Huntly, Port Maunganui, Whirinaki, New Plymouth, Gracefield and Islington. Gas peakers Location: Stratford, Southdown, Otahuhu, and Huntly. • Assumptions: 80 % of the total cost is exposed to foreign currency • e.g. LMS100 US$709/kW at exchange of 0.8 = NZ$886/kW + 20% for local cost = NZ$1063/kW • at exchange of 0.5 = NZ$1418/kW + 20% for local cost = NZ$1701/kW

  4. Peakers O&M costs • Average is presented above but fixed and variable O&M would differ between engine size and type (decrease vs capacity and more expensive for diesel engine) • For the gas engine an extra $2/GJ is added on the top of the gas price to reflect gas flexibility

  5. CCGT Reference: GTW handbook 2009 and GE website

  6. CCGT details • Assumptions: 80 % of the total cost is exposed to foreign currency • e.g. US$600/kW at exchange of 0.5 = NZ$1200/kW + 20% for local cost = NZ$1440/kW

  7. Coal Assuming exchange rate of 0.6 for the triangles • O&M coal should be ~$100/kW instead of $40/kW • Adjust Coal/Lignite capex price as the CCGT capex has been changed : roughly 2.33 times more expensive than CCGT (~ $NZ 3300/kW)

  8. Coal and Lignite HR • HR values in GEM average at 10,000 GJ/GWh (36 %)…this is true for existing subcritical (180 bar, 540 oC) • New subcritical coal plant with conventional environmental controls operate closer to 39% efficiency • Supercrital steam-cycle (240 bar, 570 oC) have become the system of choice in Europe and USA and have efficiency in the range of 42% to 45%. • IGCC and ultra-supercritical plants could have 50% efficiency Coal HR in GEM: 8600 GJ/GWh (42 %) Lignite HR in GEM: 9300 GJ/GWh (39 %)

  9. CCS • Before we had a gain in efficiency but that’s the opposite there is a loss in efficiency caused by the capturing ~ 10% less then a standard Coal • CCS cost has been set to twice the price of standard coal (IEA,2006) – cheaper in the future? • Calculation shows that CCS break even with Coal at a carbon charge of $110/t (good agreement with IEA). • IEA says in the future break even could be at ~$NZ 90/t roughly equivalent to a 10% decrease of capex • …in the base case ($75/t) we need to drop the capex by 25% to built CCS instead of Coal or set the carbon charge higher (do we want Coal generation in the TTER base case?) • CCS has been set to $US 2800/kW

  10. Pipeline costs • Rough calculation to add an extra concost to the gas fired station depending on their location (steady state isothermal gas flow model) • Sfd and Hly no gas concost • Swn, Ota and hpi required gas concost • Set all the potential CCGT and OCGT to max offtake and remove the constraint – get the diameter and the total cost (based on ITL costs estimate) • Need to extent the Maui pipeline (750 mm) to Ota. • Split the total cost (fraction of the volume used for each power station) for the 1st 80 km • For hpi an extra 40 km of 350 mm pipeline is required and half of the cost goes to 240 MW Rodney 1 and 240 MW Rodney 2. CCCT $m 20-30 OCGT $m 8-15

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