World flavour trends

1. World flavour trends Presented by David JagoDirector of Innovation & Insight, Mintel International

2. Who we are Mintel Reports: understanding the “why” behind the trends

3. First: The fallacy of global flavour trends • The names may be the same, but tastes themselves are often quite different • Allowance for cultural variations • Is there opportunity to ensure flavours are authentic? • Bifurcation of products • Mainstream products with adjusted flavour profiles • Niche and imported products with more authentic tastes

4. Today’s presentation • What’s a trend, and what’s a fad • What’s the difference between established flavours and emerging flavours • Tracking the development of established flavours • Using that format to understand emerging flavour trends • What’s ahead for flavours?

5. How to spot trends • Trendwatching is both an art and a science: • Science: • Growth in new product introductions • Beginnings of sales activity • Interest by consumers • Mentions in the press • Art: • “Gut feeling” cannot be discounted • Ability to make a leap of faith

6. What’s a fad? What’s a trend? A trend: • Shows slow, steady growth over time • Expands categories • Expands countries • Uses a common language • Easy to adopt • Possesses an “a-ha” factor

7. What’s a fad? What’s a trend? A fad: • Appears quickly, grows quickly • Appears in a limited categories • Expands into few additional countries • Explanations confusing or contradictory • Difficult for consumers to adopt • Possesses an “a-ha” factor

8. Wholegrain and low carb—spot the fad Low carb introductions and wholegrain introductions, global, 1996-2007 Low Carb Source: Mintel GNPD

9. Trend vs. fad—regional distribution tells the story Wholegrain introductions, by region, 1996-2007 Low carb introductions, by region, 1999-2007 Source: Mintel GNPD

10. Identifying flavour trends • Three main types: • Established flavours—the ones we all know • Growth flavours • Emerging flavours

11. Growth flavours tend to support existing trends Growth flavours are fairly well established and have had large increases (over 50%) in the past three years, across several categories and regions Launch numbers are significant, but still fairly small overall Growth flavours vs. emerging flavours Source: Mintel GNPD

12. Emerging flavours may help create new trends Emerging flavours include ones that have shown some increase in introductions in the past three years The number of introductions is small, but we note flavours moving beyond their region of origin Growth flavours vs. emerging flavours Source: Mintel GNPD

13. What makes a flavour “hot”? • Familiarity breeds . . . . Familiarity • flavour blends combine new with old • Restaurant menus offer “safe” exposure • Flavours that carry other benefits • Halo benefits spill over from nonfood • Inherent health benefits in specific flavours

14. Sweet flavours for consideration • A look at an established flavour: Dark chocolate • Giving a new name to an existing flavour: Dulce de leche • Influence from nonfood: Lavender • Regional flavours on the move: • Cactus • Hawthorn • Kumquat

15. Dulce de leche What it is • Caramel flavour with its roots in Latin America Why it’s important • Impact of Latin American cuisine in the US • Brings a more exotic name to a very familiar flavour, allows for more upscale offerings Where it’s going • Expansion outside of North America into Europe • Watch menus, where the flavour appears in savoury applications

16. Lavender What it is • Ubiquitous garden herb, personal and home care scent Why it’s important • Exotic, upscale flavour profile • Familiar flavour that translates to many categories Where it’s going • Expansion from premium chocolates and drinks into more mainstream offerings

17. Cactus What it is • Cactus used as a flavour, rather than agave syrup used as a sweetener Why it’s important • Latin American influence Where it’s going • Translates from everyday food in Latin America to more unusual formulations in other countries

18. Hawthorn What it is • Tree, whose dried fruit is used mainly in Asia Why it’s important • Use has already moved from Asia into parts of Latin America Where it’s going • New taste experience, unusual ingredient

19. Kumquat What it is • One of the more exotic members of the citrus family Why it’s important • Provides additional diversity to citrus offerings Where it’s going • Seen in limited quantities in many countries, often blended with other citrus fruits

20. Flavour focus: Dark chocolate • Chocolate in all forms well established globally; expansion into dark chocolate driven by two factors: indulgent taste and good health • Expansion from chocolate confectionery introductions into wide range of additional categories, including some more traditionally savoury categories • Dark chocolate becomes more specific (e.g. 71%) • Ties in with consumer dual needs for self-indulgence and self-control

21. Dark chocolate confectionery continues to rise Dark chocolate in chocolate confectionery products, global, 2001-2008 Source: Mintel GNPD

22. Dark chocolate surges in 2004-2005 Dark chocolate in all other categories, global, 2001-2008 Source: Mintel GNPD

23. Dark chocolate on US restaurant menus Types of chocolate mentioned on US restaurant menus, 2004-2007 • Olive Garden: Dark Chocolate Mousse Cake Source: Mintel Menu Insights

24. Where next for dark chocolate? • More specificity • Of percent cacao • Of location • More information • Of provenance • Of flavour notes • Of health benefits • Recession proof?

25. Savoury flavours • Spicy flavours and regionality: • Chimichurri • Peri peri • Seasonings moving into new categories: • Fennel • Worcestershire sauce

26. Chimichurri What it is • Seasoning from Argentina, comprised of parsley, olive oil, paprika, garlic Why it’s important • Argentinean and Brazilian food increasing in popularity in North America and Europe Where it’s going • Flavour profile has potential to extend into new categories

27. Peri peri What it is • Hot seasoning originally from Mozambique; appears mostly in South Africa and Australia Why it’s important • Unique name and flavour profile can appeal to many consumers Where it’s going • Movement out of Africa into Europe and North America

28. Fennel What it is • Pantry staple, used mostly in savoury dishes Why it’s important • Familiar to many consumers from home meal prep Where it’s going • Expansion into new types of categories (e.g. confectionery)

29. Worcestershire sauce What it is • That brown sauce in everyone’s cupboard Why it’s important • Savoury, “umami” flavour profile makes it suitable for many applications Where it’s going • More appearance in categories outside of sauces, in a broader range of countries

30. What next for flavour trends? • Look outside your country for ideas on the next new flavour • Sauces, seasonings, and meals for unique spice blends • Unique fruits and vegetables • New applications for existing flavours • Look across categories for flavours that can translate from sweet to savoury or savoury to sweet • Don’t be afraid to experiment—consumers like trying new things

31. Please contact: David Jago djago@mintel.com +44 (0)207-606-4533