Demographic and Economic Trends In Colorado and Region 12

1. Demographic and Economic Trends In Coloradoand Region 12 Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2019 demography.dola.colorado.gov

2. Transitions to Watch • Concentrated Growth • Migration – attracting and retaining the right fit. • Aging – labor force, income, housing, jobs, migration • Changes to industries – booms, downturns, automation, retail, manufacturing, construction. • Increasing racial and ethnic diversity. • Slowing income growth • Slowing growth – planning for the slowing and the growth

3. Big Picture – 2017-2018 Pop Change • US – 327.2 million, + 2.02 million or .6% • Colorado - 5,695,564 • Ranked 7th fastest 1.4% - NV, ID, UT, AZ, FL, WA • 8th in total growth 78,931 – TX, FL, CA, AZ, NC, WA, GA • 7 Counties with declines in population • Region 12 +139

10. Colorado

11. In Migration to Colorado • In migration ave. 170,000-230,000 /yr. • Out migration ave. 150,000-190,000 /yr. • In Migrants are: • Younger • Lower Income • Higher educational attainment than the Colorado average.

15. JOBS ARE PEOPLE

20. Average Annual Wage in 2017 = $43,600

21. Region 12 Job growth by industry since 2008

22. Commuting Patterns – Work to Home Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

23. AGE Why?PreferencesHousingIncomeService DemandsLabor Force

27. We are Aging Fast • Currently very few people over the age 65. • 6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015 • 3rd fastest growing in the 65+ • Baby Boomers • Born 1946 – 1964 • 1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015) • 2015 – 2030 Colorado’s population 65+ will grow 719,000 to 1,270,000(77%) (primarily from aging) • Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2015 and 2030. State Demography Office, Census Bureau

31. Aging Issues • Numbers • Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends • Impact on occupational mix • Labor Force • Housing – Universal Design, sidewalks • All price levels and need levels, fewer movers. • Income – Downward Pressure • Health / Disabilities • Transportation • Public Finance – Downward Pressure • Aging Plans?

32. Ethnicity/Race increasing

34. Census Bureau

36. 35 Source: ACS 1-year PUMS

37. Growing but Slowing

40. State – 2.4M Front Range – 2M Denver Metro – 1M North FR – 600K South FR – 400K Rest of State – 400K

41. Risks(plus or minus) • National Growth – National Policies – Intl’ immigration • Water • Housing – supply, price, type, location • Infrastructure/Transportation • State Budget/Policy • Aging – labor force, prepared labor force • Industry changes – downturn, bust, recession, competitiveness. • Natural disasters - nationally

42. Summary • Plan for risks - in industries, climate, labor, water, downturns. • All connected – jobs, population, housing, infrastructure. • Migration – how do we continue to attract and retain the best worker for the right job. • Aging – fastest growing age group, labor force, jobs, income, housing, public finance • Growing racial diversity at youngest ages – labor force • Growing but slowing.

43. State Demography Office • Department of Local Affairs • Elizabeth Garner • Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us • 303-864-7750 • Demography.dola.colorado.gov Thank you

44. It’s Important. It’s Easy. It’s SafeApril 1, 2020

45. ACS 2017 Median Home Value 4th 5th 2nd 3rd American Community Survey, 2017

47. Median Home Value, ACS 2013-17 Owner Occupied Jackson $171,300 Grand $285,000 Summit $547,700 Eagle $471,100 Pitkin $593,600 Colorado $286,100

50. Quick Facts On Colorado’s Population • 5th fastest growth Apr 2010 to July 2018 @ 13.2%- DC, TX, UT, and FL vs. 6.0% U.S. • 8th most growth Apr 2010 to July 2018 @ 666,248– TX, CA, FL, GA, WA, NC, AZ (61% of growth from migration) • 7 county Metro Denver +413,575 w/ 116,700 in Denver • Median Age: 36.8 (11th lowest) – UT, DC, AK, TX, ND, ID • 13.8% over age of 65 – AK, UT, DC, TX, GA • 21.5%Hispanic – NM, TX, CA, AZ, NV, FL