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Trends in Population and Demographic Change

Trends in Population and Demographic Change. Andrew J. Padovani Research Associate, Business Forecasting Center. The 2010 Decennial Census. 685,306 San Joaquin County residents in 2010. 2010 Demographics. 2010 Demographics. Migration. Migration. Model Description. Cohort Component Model

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Trends in Population and Demographic Change

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  1. Trends in Population and Demographic Change Andrew J. Padovani Research Associate, Business Forecasting Center

  2. The 2010 Decennial Census • 685,306 San Joaquin County residents in 2010.

  3. 2010 Demographics

  4. 2010 Demographics

  5. Migration

  6. Migration

  7. Model Description • Cohort Component Model • Cohorts are 5-year Age Groups • Model runs in 5-year Increments out to 2040 • In- and Out-Migration Modeled Separately

  8. Data Sources • Base Population Data: 2010 Decennial Census, Census Bureau • Births and Deaths: Public Health Services of San Joaquin County • Migration Data: IRS Migration Profiles, Missouri Census Data Center, University of Missouri-Columbia

  9. Assumptions • Migration rates return to “historic norm” between 2010 and 2015. • Lower long-term Hispanic migration. • Declining fertility, including Hispanic & Asian. • Death rates decline over projection period

  10. San Joaquin County Population Projection under Migration Scenarios

  11. Baseline Population Projection

  12. 2040 Demographics

  13. 2040 Demographics

  14. Long Run Outlook • Relatively young population should support strong natural increase. • Agriculture and proximity to Bay Area should keep SJC attractive to commuters. • Shrinking Working Age population will reduce future fertility rates and reduce tax base. • Aging population will strain social insurance programs and increase health care spending.

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