1 / 18

Minnesota Demographic And Economic Trends

Minnesota Demographic And Economic Trends. Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration May 2010. U.S. Employment Not Expected to Return to Pre-Recession High Until Spring 2013. Minnesota Wages and Employment Fell During This Recession.

apiatan-aguirre
Download Presentation

Minnesota Demographic And Economic Trends

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Minnesota Demographic And Economic Trends Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration May 2010

  2. U.S. Employment Not Expected to Return to Pre-Recession High Until Spring 2013

  3. Minnesota Wages and Employment Fell During This Recession

  4. The 11 County Metro Area Is Projected To Add Nearly A Million People By 2030 Census, Met Council & State Demographer forecasts

  5. Minneapolis Population Increased Some In The 90’s; Relatively Stable Since

  6. National Mobility Has Fallen To Its Lowest Point Ever Recorded Census Bureau, 2009 CPS and historical

  7. Convergence In Population Growth Rates Census ests, Exurban includes Isanti, Chisago, Sherburne, and Wright. Wi Exurban are St. Croix and Pierce

  8. The Economic/Demographic Environment Has Changed for as Far as We Can Forecast Short run economic cycle has merged with long run demographic cycle We have entered the Age of Entitlement—economic growth in the next 25 years will be about half what it was in the past 25. State revenue growth will slow while spending pressures will accelerate This is a national/global issue

  9. Minnesota Saw a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 in 2008 2005 ACS

  10. From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Numbers are rounded

  11. Budget Pressures Will Change More 65+ Than School Age by 2020 Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2010

  12. Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply

  13. World Labor Force Growth SlowingProjected Change In Working Age Population (15-64) U.S. Census Bureau

  14. Minnesota Will Grow More Diverse; Remain Less Diverse Than The Nation State Demographer & Census Bureau projections

  15. The “New Normal” Probably Means • Slower economic growth—about 85% as fast • Slower growth of wages, portfolio incomes, & profits • Less consumption; more saving • Retirements will create many of the job openings • Skills mismatch will present a problem in replacing retiring workers • Creative destruction/disruptive innovation are creating a new set of opportunities • More uncertainty about the future

  16. Grieving For The “Old Normal” • Denial – “This is not happening.” “Just wait, things will return to normal.” • Anger -- “Who is to blame?” Rage and gridlock rule and anyone who symbolizes life, energy, progress, success, happiness, etc. is treated with resentment and mistrust. • Bargaining – “I’ll change if this just goes away.” Somehow, we can get back to the old normal if we just return to good, ole fashioned (conservative/liberal) values. • Depression (emotional, not economic) – “What’s the point in trying?” “We are all doomed anyway.” The certainty/finality of events is finally recognized. • Acceptance – “It’s going to be okay.” Looking for opportunities begins.

  17. FY 2012-13 Budget Gap Now $5.8 Billion • Planning estimates assume: • Complete repayment of the K-12 aid deferral. Delaying repayment would save $1.163 billion • .No repayment of the K-12 Property tax recognition shift. Repayment would cost 564 million. • No continued GAMC spending. Restoring the GAMC to its former level would cost $928 million. Current agreement costs $214 million.

  18. But Why Fear The New Normal?It Plays To Our Strengths! • Future economic growth will depend increasingly on increasing productivity and less on labor force size • Education has been the key to Minnesota’s productivity and prosperity • Future productivity increases will depend on decisions and the investments we make now • Public Sector Productivity Growth Will Be Essential

More Related