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Joe L. Outlaw Professor & Extension Economist Co-Director, AFPC Train the Trainer Kansas City, MO

Something to Think About and the Decision Aid Developed by the NAAFP. Joe L. Outlaw Professor & Extension Economist Co-Director, AFPC Train the Trainer Kansas City, MO September 4, 2014. A Few Things to Think About.

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Joe L. Outlaw Professor & Extension Economist Co-Director, AFPC Train the Trainer Kansas City, MO

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  1. Something to Think About and the Decision Aid Developed by the NAAFP Joe L. Outlaw Professor & Extension Economist Co-Director, AFPC Train the Trainer Kansas City, MO September 4, 2014

  2. A Few Things to Think About • All of the decisions required in the bill add to the producer’s ability to tailor the bill to fit their operations – not just add to complication • There will be plenty of time to gather needed info, analyze their options, and make sign-up decisions – no reason to panic • The Title I decision is a life of the farm bill decision • Two kinds of producers – those who want to maximize their government payments and those that want to manage risk • It is one thing to use point estimates to show how programs work – quite another for evaluating alternatives

  3. My Guess at the Sign-up Timeline August 2014 June 2015 Jan May Oct Feb Nov March Dec April Sept Fix Planted Acres with FSA Choice Between ARC & PLC Reallocate Bases & Update Yields Annual Sign-up

  4. Producer Price Outlook a Factor in ARC/PLC Decision (Corn Ex.) Yields could also offset FAPRI Price Projections

  5. Discussion of Decision Aid(s) • Our group (NAAFP) has been working on this for more than 1.5 years • Applied for and received funding from USDA to develop nation-wide decision aid • Decided it was in the best interest of our producers to make our decision aid available prior to signing contract with USDA https://www.afpc.tamu.edu/models/decisionaid.php

  6. Thanks!!! Joe Outlaw joutlaw@tamu.edu 979-845-5913 WWW.AFPC.TAMU.EDU @AFPCTAMU

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