1 / 31

World Grain Situation

World Grain Situation. Trends, Conditions and Outlook. Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University. Overview. World Supply/Demand Balance Major Producers & Consumers

ahanu
Download Presentation

World Grain Situation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. World Grain Situation Trends, Conditions and Outlook Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University

  2. Overview • World Supply/Demand Balance • Major Producers & Consumers • Market Conditions Affecting the Major Grain Traders • Prices

  3. World Macroeconomic Conditions

  4. Wheat Market Overview • Former Soviet Union Re-emerging As Wheat Exporter • Improved Rail & Port Infrastructure in Kazakhstan Stimulate Exports • Argentine Exports Expected to Decline Due to Short Crop from Dry Weather • China’s Imports Drop Due to Excellent Crop

  5. Iraq, 1 MMT

  6. Rice Market Overview • Thailand is the World’s Leading Exporter • More Competition from Vietnam & India Growing in Importance • Indonesia a Major Importer • Growing Demand in Cuba, Nigeria & Saudi Arabia • China Currency Strengthening Likely to Increase Asian Rice Prices

  7. World Rice Prices $/Metric Ton $500 Thai, FOB Bangkok U.S., FAS Gulf Ports FOB, Vietnam $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2000 2001 2002 8/2003 1/2004 8/2004 1/2005 8/2005

  8. Source: Producers Rice Mill (producersrice.com)

  9. Corn Market Overview • Recovering Demand in Latin America • Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, El Salvador & Ecuador Experience Strong Demand Growth • Consumption Has Grown 3.4%/Year for 5 Years • Increased Animal Feeding Main Reason for Greater Demand • Less Export Competition in Near Term

  10. Summary • World Grain Markets are Characterized as Highly Dynamic • Wide Swings in Price • Uncertainty About Weather & Other Forces • Impacts of Exchange Rates • Influenced by Policy and Trade Restrictions • Except for Rice, World Supply/Demand for Major Grains In Balanced • Tight S/D Balance Can Lead to Large Price Increases & Higher Food Costs for Consumers

More Related