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Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World

Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World. American Public Power Association October 17, 2006 Barbara Tyran Director, Washington Relations. Objective.

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Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World

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  1. Transition of theGeneration Fleet ina Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association October 17, 2006 Barbara Tyran Director, Washington Relations

  2. Objective Provide an objective and factual framework for discussing generation technologies and investment decisions in a carbon-constrained world

  3. Framework Overview • Levelized cost of electricity • Standard EPRI methodology • Constant 2006 $ costs • Lines are mean values from a range of studies • Two key uncertainties • Future “cost” of CO2 • Future price of natural gas • Two technology portfolios • 2010-2015 time-period • 2020-2025 time-period

  4. Base-load Generation Options • Dispatchable Generation • Fossil Generation • Pulverized coal (PC) • Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) • Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) • Nuclear • Biomass • Intermittent Generation • Wind

  5. Pulverized Coal Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2010 - 2015 90 80 PC 70 0.8 Tons CO2/MWh X $50/Ton = +$40/MWh 60 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  6. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2010 - 2015 90 IGCC 80 70 PC 60 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  7. Natural Gas Combined Cycle Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2010 - 2015 90 80 NGCC@$8 70 NGCC@$6 60 0.4 Tons/MWh x $50/Ton = +$20/MWh 50 NGCC@$4 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  8. Non-CO2 Emitting Dispatchable Generation Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2010 - 2015 90 80 70 Biomass 60 50 Nuclear 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  9. U.S. Wind Capacity Factors* Average of distribution = 29% Central range = 25-35% *2005 data from Platts

  10. Wind Generation Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2010 - 2015 90 80 Wind@29% CF 70 60 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  11. Comparative Costs in 2010-2015 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 IGCC 90 Wind@29% CF 80 NGCC@$6 70 Biomass PC 60 50 Nuclear 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  12. Take-Aways for 2010-2015 Time Period • Almost all new dispatchable base-load generation needed to meet U.S. demand growth prior to 2015 will utilize fossil-fueled technologies (NGCC, PC, and IGCC) without CO2 capture and storage. • Wide-scale commercial operation of new advanced light water reactor nuclear plants and new advanced coal plants with CO2 capture and storage in the U.S. will probably not occur until after 2015.

  13. What’s Possible: 2020-2025 Horizon Key Drivers Technology Advances in Efficiency Cost Reductions through Design Improvements CO2 Capture and Storage - Development and Deployment

  14. Pulverized Coal w/o Capture Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 90 PC w/o cap 2010-2015 80 70 60 PC w/o cap 2020-2025 50 Assumes increased efficiency and some cost reduction 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  15. Pulverized Coal with CO2 Capture and Storage Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 90 80 PC w/o capture 70 Current MEA capture technology (PC) 60 50 Advanced capture technology (PC-USC) 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  16. IGCC w/o Capture Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 IGCC w/o capture 2010-2015 90 80 70 60 IGCC, w/o capture 2020-2025 50 Assumes efficiency improvements and cost reductions 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  17. IGCC with CO2 Capture and Storage Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 90 IGCC w/o capture (2020-2025) 80 70 60 IGCC w/ capture (2020-2025) 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  18. Advanced IGCC and Advanced PC with Capture Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 90 80 IGCC w/o cap 70 PC-USC with advanced capture* PC w/o cap 60 50 IGCC with capture 40 Technology “Horserace”…choice may be fuel or operating strategy dependent 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton *midpoint of Ammonia Carbonate and AC/Membrane/Improvement cases

  19. Natural Gas Combined Cycle Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 90 80 NGCC@$6 (2010-2015) 70 60 NGCC@$6 (2020-2025) 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  20. Biomass Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 90 80 Biomass 2010-2015 70 60 Biomass 2020-2025 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  21. Wind Generation Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2020 - 2025 29% CF in 2010-2015 90 32% CF in 2020-2025 35% CF in 2020-2025 80 40% CF in 2020-2025 70 60 50 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  22. Comparative Costs in 2020-2025 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 An Extraordinary Opportunityto Develop a Low-carbon Portfolio 90 80 70 NGCC@$6 60 PC w/cap IGCC w/cap Wind 50 Nuclear Biomass 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

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