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Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W

Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W. Mn/DOT Travel Demand Modeling Coordinating Committee December 12, 2005 Meeting Jaimie Sloboden. I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W. Widen I-694 from 4-lanes to 6-lanes

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Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W

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  1. Forecasting/Simulation Interface on I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W Mn/DOT Travel Demand Modeling Coordinating Committee December 12, 2005 Meeting Jaimie Sloboden

  2. I-694 Reconstruction from I-35E to I-35W • Widen I-694 from 4-lanes to 6-lanes • Modification/reconstruction of 5 interchanges • I-35W • TH 10/Snelling/Hamline • Lexington • Victoria St • Rice Street • Completes Un-weave the weave • I-35W not part of the “plan”

  3. Project Limits

  4. MN/DOT’s Freeway Simulation Process • CORSIM is the Current Simulation Program (being reviewed by Eil Kwon and U of M) • Field Observations • Base Model Development • Error Checking • Model Calibration • Driver Behavior • Alternatives Analysis • Final Report

  5. Simulation Limits (physical)

  6. Simulation Limits (Temporal) • Duration of Congestion in Metro Area is 3 to 5 hours per peak period • 1 hour simulation models in metro inadequate (Lake St Access Case Study proved this) • 15 minute data

  7. Simulation Limits vs. Project Limits • Extended Boundary Limits required to “Feed” Traffic into Project Area • Analysis of non-project elements “required” • Non-project elements in simulation model may or may not be part of TSP, TIP, STIP, TPP • Non-project elements may create a bottleneck impacting the analysis

  8. Forecasting Process • Mn/DOT Metro Guidelines • Reviewed and updated Land Use • Reviewed and updated Network Attributes • Screen line Evaluation • Post Processing applied • Base error applied to Future error • Reasonableness Checks

  9. Regional Model Network

  10. Forecast ProductPeak Hour & Daily

  11. Converting Forecasts to Simulation Inputs • Single Peak Hour (forecast) converted to 3-hour 15 minute data (simulation) • 694 model had 15,000 traffic volume inputs • Big Math Problem! • Two Approaches • Option 1: factor existing 15 minute data by peak hour ratio • Option 2: Forecast 15-minute data o-d (Crosstown model) • Option 1 used for I-694

  12. Sample Calculations • Existing 15-minute pattern duplicated • There are challenges with this process

  13. Origin-Destination Data

  14. Partial 15 minute Volume Data Base for Freeways

  15. System Origin-Destination Data

  16. Conclusions • Better interaction required between Forecasting and Simulation processes • Preparing 15-minute forecasts for simulations problematic • Forecasting process needs to catch up with Simulation • Qa/QC • Network coding errors • Systematic approach • Simulation exposes many issues with the “Plan”, dealing with these new issues

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