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Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy

ARPA Servizio IdroMeteorologico Bologna Italy. Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy. Michele Stortini, Giovanni Bonafe’, Marco Deserti, Enrico Minguzzi, Suzanne Jongen. Contents. Description of N orthern I taly N etwork for F orecast A erosol p ollution

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Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy

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  1. ARPA Servizio IdroMeteorologico Bologna Italy Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy Michele Stortini, Giovanni Bonafe’, Marco Deserti, Enrico Minguzzi, Suzanne Jongen

  2. Contents • Description of Northern Italy Network for Forecast Aerosol pollution • Winter test case (February 2004) • Open questions and further developments

  3. Why NINFA Starting from 2006: daily runs, providing hourly air quality analysis and forecasts • Air quality forecast in the Po Valley • Air quality evaluation scenarios for regional and local reduction Action Plan • Background fields for urban models (i.e. ISC, ADMS-Urban) used by ARPA local departments.

  4. EMISSIONS: CTN_ACE (5*5 km) CHIMERE (10*10 km) METEO: LAMI (7*7 km) OUTPUT: O3, NO2, SO2, PM BOUNDARY CONDITIONS: Prev'air (0.5*0.5 degree) NINFA

  5. Prev’air (Chimere-continental) 0.5*0.5 degree Urban Models (ADMS-Urban) NINFA (ER-Chimere-regional) 10*10km

  6. Emission Inventory CTN-ACE(National Topic Center on Air Climate and Emissions) Input data: • Italian National Inventory 2000 and EMEP 2000 (NOx,NH3,SO2,PM10,CO,VOC) Output data: • Gridded emissions for two national domains Northern (BPA) and Southern Italy (MED) • Time profiles (EPA AP-42, EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook v3.0, Lombardia regional inventory) • Chemical VOC speciation (UK NAEI) • Chemical speciation profiles and PM granulometric classes distribution (EPA, Speciate v3.2)

  7. PM10 Annual Emission

  8. Winter test case: 12-19 february 2004 • Model:Chimere regional 10*10 km (release V200410A) • Boundary Conditions: “re-analysis” Chimere continental (0.5*0.5 degree) • Meteo: Lama “re-analysis” Lokal Model (7*7 km) • Emissions: Data set CTN-ACE (5*5 km)

  9. Average PM10 concentration 12-19 feb. 2004 NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level General under estimation of PM10 Some ‘hot-spot’ close to energy power plan

  10. Emission Pm10 (sector 1)/ Pm10 tot

  11. NINFA1:All emissions data at ground level Emissions sector 1 at 4th level NINFA4: Emissions sector 3 at 2nd level Other emissions at 1st level

  12. Winter test case: 12-19 february 2004 Left panel: Continental CHIMERE driven by MM5 (labelled CONT) Right panel :Regional CHIMERE driven by LM (labelled NINFA4)

  13. NINFA4 better reproduces spatial structures although aerosol modelling results are under estimated

  14. Rural Background stations Good agreement at Ghegardi and Montecuccolino (TEOM station)!!

  15. Suburban station (1)

  16. Suburban station (2) PM10simulated concentrations are generally three or four times lower than the observed ones. NINFA4 gives better results

  17. Granulometric classes distributions and aerosol species (spatial average) Secondary organic aerosol very low!!! phno3>ppm!!!

  18. Average NO2 concentration 12-19 feb. 2004 NINFA4 reproduces patterns in urban areas (Milan, Turin, Venice) as well as along major roads

  19. Rural Background stations

  20. Suburban station (1)

  21. Suburban station (2) NINFA4 seems fairly reproduce NO2 concentrations over the major part of stations

  22. Discussion and conclusions • NINFA has been implemented at ARPA-SIM. This model provides simulation results for PM and gas species. • Compared to continental model NINFA improve substantially NO2 simulation probably due to more accuracy of anthropogenic emission; comparisons with available data at background and suburban stations give acceptable results on PM10 only in few stations although NINFA gives better results. Some open questions: • The introduction of Point source emission scheme could improve substantially model skill especially over Po Valley? • Secondary organic matter vs. resuspension

  23. Further works • Implementation of latest version of Chimere • Test with increasing the model secondary organic matter and/or resuspension • Long-term simulations (summer and winter seasons)

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