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Tom Potiowsky Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon’s Economic Outlook Hotel Murano Tacoma, Washington May 15, 2008. Tom Potiowsky Office of Economic Analysis. Look at Oregon Economy. Office of Economic Analysis. Recent Oregon Economy Facts ….

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Tom Potiowsky Office of Economic Analysis

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  1. Oregon’s Economic Outlook • Hotel Murano • Tacoma, Washington • May 15, 2008 Tom Potiowsky Office of Economic Analysis

  2. Look at Oregon Economy... Office of Economic Analysis

  3. Recent Oregon Economy Facts … • 5.7% unemployment rate for March 2008 – 10th highest for the states. New release: March 2008 at 5.6% unemployment rate with April 2008 at 5.5%. • 26th fastest job growth at 0.6% for all states for March 2008 over March 2007. • 5.7% unemployment rate for March 2008 is up from the latest lowest rate of 5.0% in April 2007. • Total nonfarm employment grew 0.9% year-over-year for the 1st quarter of 2008 (preliminary data). Job losses (S.A.) for both April and March 2008. • 5.8% personal income growth for 4th quarter of 2007 over 4th quarter of 2006. Annualized 4th quarter 2007 growth at 5.0%.

  4. 1990-91 National duration 8 months, about the same for Oregon ‘V’ shaped recession 1.6% decline in Oregon jobs; 1.5% decline for US Oregon ranked 24th worst Inflation at 6.0% Oregon unemployment rate peak 7.5% (about same as US), 22 months over 7% 2001 National duration 8 months, about 31 months for Oregon ‘W’ shaped recession 4.0% decline in Oregon jobs; 2.0% decline for US Oregon ranked 12th worst Inflation at 3.4% Oregon unemployment rate peak 8.5% (higher than US), 37 months over 7% Last Two Recessions, Oregon faired better in 1990-91 and much worse during 2001

  5. Oregon’s Position in the Latest Downturn • Nationwide, foreclosure-related filings (e.g., default notices, auction sale notices, etc.) increased 75% nationwide from 2006 to 2007. Oregon had a 12% increase over the same period, 43rd slowest rate in the U.S. • Oregon’s foreclosure rate at 0.533%, half the national average and well below 1.5% plus rate of NV, FL, CA, AZ, OH, MI. • Oregon still has positive single family house price appreciation as of 4th quarter 2007 (overall, but Medford and Bend are slightly negative, Portland most likely dipping into negative territory—S&P/Case-Shiller price index has Portland slightly negative). • Housing correction has less to adjust compared to other high population growth areas. But, residential building permits down -49.4% total and -51.0% single for March 08 year-to-date. (Deschutes: -68.4% total and -66.5% single) • Unemployment initial benefit claims up by 3,000, trend pointing to slower economic growth.

  6. Housing Related Sectors Feel the Effects (1st Quarter 2008)

  7. Unemployment Rate by Region, March 2008(Not seasonally adjusted; Portland MSA includes Oregon counties only) Oregon: 6.3% (seasonally adjusted: 5.7%) U. S.: 5.2% (seasonally adjusted: 5.1%) 5.3% 6.9% 6.2% 7.9% 8.3% 8.8% Source: Oregon Employment Department Office of Economic Analysis

  8. Unemployment rate by MSA designations, March 2008Note: Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton includes Clark and Skamania counties in Washington State Office of Economic Analysis Source: Oregon Employment Department

  9. Oregon was Late to the Run Up in Prices (Jan. 05 to Mar. 08) (Repeat sales) OR WA LoanPerformance

  10. Total Non-farm Employment(Annual Percentage Change) Office of Economic Analysis

  11. Population: Oregon & U.S. (Annual Percentage Change) Office of Economic Analysis

  12. Personal Income: Oregon & U.S. (Annual Percentage Change) Office of Economic Analysis

  13. Oregon June 2008 Forecast Comparison:Alternative scenarios (draft) (Percent change)

  14. Oregon Economic Assessment Going Forward … • Wood Products is in terrible shape, slight help from exports, but very depressed. • Exports a sign of relief for agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors with overseas business. • Housing starts will continue to drop this year, correction and mild growth in 2009. • House price appreciation may go negative (state-wide) but adjustment should be quick. The drop in home prices will not be as dramatice as other “hot” markets. Expect bottom fishing of positive and negative price changes into 2009. • Job losses are possible in 2008, but may look more like 1990-91 rather than 2001. • Strong Federal Reserve cuts in rates and Fiscal Stimulus Package likely out in May will lessen the downturn.

  15. Progression of 2007-09 Forecasts ($Bil.)

  16. For more information… Office of Economic Analysis 155 Cottage Street NE, U20 Salem, OR 97301-3966 (503) 378-3405 email: oea.info@das.state.or.us http://www.oea.das.state.or.us Office of Economic Analysis

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