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Tom Walsh Economist, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development

Economic Overview and Outlook. Portage County Jobs Club. Tom Walsh Economist, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development June 12, 2013. Contents. Past Present Future Conclusions and “Advice”. Past Great Recession: Things that Never Happened Before.

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Tom Walsh Economist, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development

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  1. Economic Overview and Outlook Portage County Jobs Club Tom Walsh Economist, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development June 12, 2013

  2. Contents • Past • Present • Future • Conclusions and “Advice”

  3. PastGreat Recession: Things that Never Happened Before • Four negative U.S. GDP quarters in a row • Global GDP declined • The U.S. and Japan were in recession at same time • Personal consumption expenditures were down 3 out of four quarters, with the one registering just +0.1% • Longest downturn since Great Depression • Twice as long as post-war average recession

  4. PastGDP Loss Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  5. PastSharp Decline, Slow Recovery (National Job Loss)

  6. PastWI Employment Change Relative the US Indexed Employment Change (December 2007 = 1) Source: BLS, CES, Seasonally Adjusted Total Non Farm Employment

  7. PastWI vs. Tri-county Region Employment Change from Same Month of 2007 Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW

  8. PastIndustry Employment Mix Share of Total Covered Employment Source: WI WORKnet, QCEW

  9. PastManufacturing Employment Employment Change from Same Month of 2007 Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW

  10. PastManufacturing Sector Industry Mix Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2012 Q3 QWI

  11. PresentInitial UI Claims Near Pre-Recession Levels DWD, Unemployment Insurance Division, Custom Report

  12. PresentSteady Job Growth (Statewide) Total Covered Employment (Wisconsin) Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW, WI OEA Unofficial Seasonal Adjustment

  13. PresentSteady Job Growth (Regional) Total Covered Employment (Tri-County) Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW, WI OEA Unofficial Seasonal Adjustment

  14. Present“Uneven” Manufacturing Growth Source: U.S. BLS, QCEW, WI OEA Seasonal Adjustment

  15. PresentUnemployment Rates Still High, but Declining Source: WI DWD, LAUS

  16. Present Housing Starts Low, but Improving Average = 1,351,000 Source: U.S Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, Annual Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

  17. FutureFastest Growing Occupations 2010-2020 Employment Projections: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations Source: WI OEA, Long-term Employment Projections 2010-2020

  18. FutureReplacements Openings • Example: Secondary Teacher Source: WI OEA, Long-term Employment Projections 2010-2020

  19. FutureReplacements Openings • Example: Secondary Teacher Source: WI OEA, Long-term Employment Projections 2010-2020

  20. FutureAging Population Source: WI DOA, Population Projections 2010-2040

  21. FutureAging Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 ACS

  22. FutureFlat Labor Force Growth Source: U.S Census Bureau, DWD LAUS, WI OEA

  23. FutureTechnology and Innovation

  24. FutureIncreased Training Needs

  25. Conclusion • The recovery is sustainable • Prospects for job seekers are improving • Expect increased use of technology and increased need for training

  26. “Advice” • Communicate • Network • Qualifications vs. requirements • Show interest in specific job and employer • Focus on reasons you would make an excellent employee • Always have sights set on “next step”

  27. Contact Information The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development’s Office of Economic Advisors (OEA) is charged with assisting all interested parties in better understanding their local economies. OEA has labor economists positioned throughout Wisconsin to help those involved in economic and workforce Development. For more information about this region please contact: Tom Walsh Regional Economist—North Central Wisconsin 715.261.8747 Thomas.Walsh@dwd.wisconsin.gov

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