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Schedule

Schedule. 3:30-5:00 Breakout Sessions What are the critical issues and questions? Identify major topics and begin to solicit input 5:30-6:30 Reception 8:30-8:45 Plenary session to review progress and goals What information is needed from other groups?

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Schedule

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  1. Schedule • 3:30-5:00 Breakout Sessions • What are the critical issues and questions? Identify major topics and begin to solicit input • 5:30-6:30 Reception • 8:30-8:45 Plenary session to review progress and goals • What information is needed from other groups? • 8:45-10:15 Small group discussion wrap-up • 10:15-10:30 Break • 10:30-12:00 Summary of breakout sessions • Each group will provide a few slides and summarize major issues & recommendations • 12:00-1:00 Lunch • 1:00-3:00 Plenary discussion of AOR issues • Strategy for implementation of recommendations • Recommendations on composition/organization of committee (subcommittees on fast-track & longer-term R&D?) • The next steps: timeline • 3:00 Adjourn

  2. Breakout Session Details • Session 1: Analysis Requirements (Rm 3C404) • Facilitators: David Ruth & John Snook • Charge: Identify and prioritize the requirements for AORs • Session 2: Observational Resources and Verification (Room 3B809) • Facilitators: Jennifer Mahoney & Eugene Petrescu • Charge: Identify and prioritize the observational resources required to generate AORs • Identify methods to assess the quality (verification) of the AORs • Session 3: Analysis Strategies (Room GB124) • Facilitators: Fred Carr & Steven Lazarus • Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs • Recommend ways that current deficiencies may be overcome

  3. Breakout Session Suggestions • Many potential issues to discuss in each session • Avoid tangential discussions and presentations • Consider issues broadly: • What can be done now? • What do we need to know/improve for the future? • Real-time vs. restrospective issues • Local vs. national needs • Feel free to move between sessions • Brief break 4:10-4:15 • Facilitators recap at 4:15 • If need subject matter expert, ask Brad or John to track one down

  4. Meeting Outcomes? • Formation of AOR Committee under NWS/USWRP auspices • Fast-track AOR options • R&D for the long term

  5. Realistic Timeline? • July 20: All presentations and preliminary recommendations available online. Deadline for submission of names of volunteers and draftees for AOR committee membership • August 1: Recommendations for committee members and executive summary of preliminary recommendations made to USWRP/Jack Hayes NWS • ~Sept. 15: Committee meeting • Assess and make recommendations regarding realistic options for fast track AORs • Outline program plan for longer term R&D efforts • October 15: Draft paper/recommendations submitted for comment to community • January 1: Final version of paper/ recommendations submitted for publication and to USWRP • January 1: Preliminary examples of fast track AORs available • ~March 15: Committee meeting • Assess progress on fast-track options • Finalize program plan for AOR R&D • April 15: Rudimentary fast track AORs products available

  6. Breakout Session 1: Analysis Requirements • Charge: • Identify and prioritize the requirements for AORs • Specific issues: • Can one analysis of record meet all needs? • Local analyses vs. national products • Real-time vs. retrospective analyses • What spatial and temporal resolution? • Averages vs. extremes in time/space? • Parameters (temperature, precipitation, etc.) – which are absolutely essential now? • What are the fundamental characteristics that should be met in the future?

  7. Breakout Session 2: Observational Resources and Verification • Charge: • Identify and prioritize the observational resources required to generate AORs • Identify methods to assess the quality (verification) of the AORs • Specific issues: • What observational data sets are most critical? • What limitations are imposed by the existing and future observational data assets vs. those available in the past? • What is required to estimate quantitatively the observational errors in the various data streams? • What efforts are required to collect surface data including mesonets? • How can COOP and other climate data be used effectively? • What is required to use radar and satellite data effectively? • How can the quality of analyses be assessed? • What are appropriate measures of analysis skill? • Can specific analytic experiments and case studies be defined to test analysis solutions?

  8. Breakout Session 3: Analysis Strategies • Charge: • Identify and evaluate the current capabilities to develop AORs • Recommend ways that current deficiencies may be overcome • Specific issues: • What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies? • What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.? • What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses now? • Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation)? • What are the critical scientific issues that must be resolved in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution?

  9. The First Step: Translating Needs to Requirements • Many applications require the current and past states of the atmosphere near the surface at high spatial and temporal resolution. • What does an analysis of record represent? • Can one analysis of record meet all needs? • Local analyses vs. national products • Real-time vs. retrospective analyses • Resolution issues • What spatial and temporal resolution? • Averages vs. extremes in time/space? • Parameter issues (temperature, precipitation, etc.)

  10. The Second Step: Science, Technology, and Resource Inventory • To what extent can these requirements be met given existing scientific understanding, technologies, and resources? • What can be learned from the literature and current applications? • What are the strengths and weaknesses of existing methodologies? • What observational data sets are most critical? • What limitations are imposed by the existing and future observational data assets vs. those available in the past? • What limitations are imposed by an underlying model? Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterizations, soil moisture, clouds, etc.? • What are the realistic options for real-time and retrospective analyses within the next year or two? • Are there some aspects that are easier to accomplish than others? Real-time vs. retrospective? Specific variables (temperature vs. precipitation) • How can the quality of analyses be assessed? What are appropriate measures of skill?

  11. The Third Step: Recommendations and Outcomes • What are the critical scientific issues that must be faced in order to successfully develop quality analyses at high spatial/temporal resolution? • What additional R&D and resources are needed? • Possible outcomes of this meeting? • USWRP report based on recommendations from workshop and additional feedback from operational, research, and user communities • Permanent NOAA/USWRP committee formed to continue advocacy for analysis of record • Propose fast-track implementation plan to provide AOR soon • Develop long-term clearly-defined project plan with compelling arguments • Propose funding opportunities and resources be sought to facilitate research projects from NWS, NSF, and other agencies • Advocate long-term funding from NOAA/NWS and other agencies for implementation of AOR beginning FY 07

  12. USWRP Analysis of Record Summit Day 1: Tuesday, 29 June • 8:00-8:15 AM Welcome (Bob Gall USWRP) • Session 1: Overview • 8:15-8:40 Analysis of Record Issues: Operational Perspective, Brad Colman, Seattle WFO. • 8:40-9:05 Analysis of Record Issues: Research Perspective, John Horel, University of Utah. • 9:05-9:25 Summary of Recommendations from USWRP Observing and Regional Weather Prediction Workshops. Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma • 9:25-9:35 Summary of Recommendations from USWRP Cool Season QPF Workshop. Marty Ralph, NOAA ETL • 9:35-10:00 Break • Session 2: Current Capabilities • 10:00-10:15 MSAS/RSAS Patty Miller. FSL • 10:15-10:30 The NCAR/ATEC Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation and Forecast (RTFDDA) System: Basics, operation and future development Yubao Liu. NCAR/RAP • Session 3: Data Specific Applications • 10:30-10:45 Real-time Doppler wind quality control and analysis. Qin Xu NOAA/NSSL • 10:45-11:00 Challenges and Prospects for the Analysis of Precipitation Steve Vasiloff. NOAA/NSSL • 11:00-11:15 Real-Time Hurricane Wind Field Analysis Mark Powell. Hurricane Research Division • 11:15-11:25 Dave Sharp. Melbourne Fl WFO • 11:25-11:35 Robert Aune. NOAA/NESDIS • 11:35-12:45 Lunch • Session 4: Kalman Filter Applications • 12:45-1:00 Assimilation of Fixed Screen-Height Observations in a Parameterized PBL. Joshua Hacker NCAR • 1:00-1:15 Ensemble Filters for Data Assimilation: Flexible, Powerful, and Ready for Prime-Time? Jeff Anderson. NCAR • 1:15-1:30 Toward a Real-time Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Greg Hakim. U. Washington • Session 5: Future Strategies • 1:30-2:00 Analysis of Record Strawman Proposal Geoff DiMego, NCEP. • 2:00-2:30 An FSL-RUC/RR proposal for the Analysis of Record Stan Benjamin. FSL • 2:30-3:00 A New Approach for Mesoscale Surface Analysis: The Space-Time Mesoscale Analysis System. John McGinley. FSL • 3:00-3:15 Break

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