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Post-Soviet Central Asia. 2000. 1998. A Personal Experience Daene McKinney. Central Asia. Some Statistics. Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html. Syr Darya. Aral Sea Basin. Surface Water Availability Average Year Amu Darya 78 km³
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Post-Soviet Central Asia 2000 1998 A Personal Experience Daene McKinney
Central Asia Some Statistics Source: CIA World Fact Book, 2006 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
Syr Darya Aral Sea Basin • Surface Water Availability • Average Year • Amu Darya 78 km³ • Syr Darya 37 km³ • Total 115 km³ • Water Balance • Inflow to sea ~ 60 km³ • Rivers ~ 50 km³ • Groundwater ~ 5 km³ • Precipitation ~ 5 km³ • Evaporation ~ 60 km³ • Available to use ~ 55 km³ • in the basin
ARAL SEA Not much change over 100 years, but then …
Aral Sea Crisis • 12 x maximum permitted DDT • 3/4 of people suffer from illness • 70 % of fishermen are pre-cancerous • 5 x death rate of former Sovietrepublics • … the environmental costs are so high that they go beyond the economic capacity of the newly independent republics in Central Asia. • - The World Bank
Recent Water Balance P E Northern Aral Sea Inflow Syr Darya E P Will it dry up completely? Why or why not? Southern Aral Sea Inflow Amu Darya
Does this allocation seem fair to you? Why or why not? Aral Sea Basin States:Some Statistics
Aral Sea Basin Flows (1989 – 2000) Water used in irrigation Can irrigated agriculture be sustained while minimizing environmental impacts?
Syr Darya Basin Who should get the water? When? How can these needs be balanced? • Transboundary Water Resources: • Upstream – Kyrgyzstan • Water for electricity (heating) needed in winter • Downstream – Uzbekistan • Water for irrigation needed in summer
Syr Darya Basin Ag Prod. Coal Water Keep Warm! Water Ag Prod. Natural Gas
Kyrgyz Fuel Availability USSR Breakup
A computer lab in a Kyrgyz School Bazarbai Mambetov
Central Asia Water & Energy Round Table • USAID supported • Water and energy representatives of • Kyrgyzstran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan • Created by Governments to • Develop treaty on Syr Dayra • Develop country positions on issues • Serve interests of all countries equally • Identify directions agreeable to all countries • Obtain advocacy for activities within each country • Bring work to attention of Presidents
Any Questions? No cameras allowed! KGB museum, Moscow, June 2000