Economy of Immortality

1. Economy of Immortality Aleksandar BogojevićScientific Computing Laboratory Institute of Physics, Belgrade http://scl.phy.bg.ac.yu/ Café ScientifiqueBritish Council, BelgradeFebruary 12, 2007.

2. Introduction • Modern research is on the brink of understanding why we live as long as we do and of creating practical ways to substantially extend the human life span. • The possibility of (repeated) life extension would represent a new and unique commodity that everyone must have. • Abandoning the “mortality paradigm” would profoundly effect every aspect of economy and of society in general. • We need to understand the consequences of these changes before they are upon us.

3. Modeling the flow of generations young adult old generation n young adult old generation n + 1 young adult generation n + 2 one generation is approximately 30 years

4. Flow of money k C m 2m 2m k m’ 2 P = 2αm m investing in one’s children and old age benefits inheritance marriage

5. Simplifying assumptions • All people have the same lifespan. • Mates chosen with same economic standing. • Uniform values of economic growth , child investment C, and pension coefficient αacross the whole population. • Equal partition of inheritance among siblings. • Number of children k is chosen to be the maximal number that assures they have equal or better financial start-up than their parents.

6. Evolution of wealth and fertility Fertility data shown is for France, but is typical for many other countries

7. life extension Recursive life extension You can come to the fountain of youth repeatedly, however, each time you have to pay the price for this unique commodity.

8. life extension Possible life spans “natural” life span young adult old one life extension young adult adult old two life extensions young adult adult adult old immortal adult young adult adult adult …

9. life extension New flow of money 2 E m 2m 2m k C ( k + 2 ) m’ m investing in life extension and one’s children inheritance marriage

10. life extension Additional assumptions • Uniform price of life extensionEacross the whole population. • Life extension is a novel commodity: everyone who can pay for life extension does so. • Parents “inherit” same amount of money in the next generation as do their children. • Given the fact that life extension is purchased or not, the number of children k is determined as before.

11. Thank you! More details can be found on the site: http://scl.phy.bg.ac.yu/ Министарство наукеРепублика Србија European Commission

12. life extension Evolution of individual wealth without tunneling with tunneling

13. Price of life extension • The relevant parameter is E / C the ratio of the cost of life extension to per child investment. • A society can can determine E / C in two ways: (1) minimize social pressure (segregation of mortals and immortals);(2) maximize profit (as with other commodities). • Look at the compatibility of these two criteria.

14. life extension Tunneling into immortality A – UK, Sweden, Australia,… B – US, France, Italy, Canada, India,… C – Spain, Greece, Romania,…

15. life extension Profit of pharmaceutical companies t = 4 t = 2 t = 1 Profit vs. price of life extension E (for C = 2)

16. life extension Conclusions • Not surprisingly, introduction of recursive life extension will severely impact society. Contrary to naïve expectations, we find that these changes might not necessarily be bad. • It becomes possible to have sustained economic growth in a society of stable size. • Realistic values of growth lead to populations of stable size that do not segregate mortals and immortals and in which pharmaceutical companies can optimize profit of life extension just like any other commodity.

17. life extension Future directions • More complex models in which  is not a given constant but is itself determined by the dynamics. • Look at two or more segments of society having different values of child investment. Introduction of life extension brings even more drastic changes to heterogeneous societies. • Similar kind of models could in principle be used to investigate cancer cells. Tunneling would now represents normal (mortal) cell becoming cancerous (immortal).