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Seasonal Outlook & NWS Resources

Seasonal Outlook & NWS Resources. Latah LEPC January 14, 2013 Andy Brown. El Ni ño vs La N i ña. ‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs. Ni ño Indices: Historical Evolution. Ni ño Indices: Recent Evolution. Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer.

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Seasonal Outlook & NWS Resources

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  1. Seasonal Outlook&NWS Resources Latah LEPC January 14, 2013 Andy Brown

  2. El Niño vs La Niña ‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs

  3. Niño Indices: Historical Evolution

  4. Niño Indices: Recent Evolution • Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer • Weak El Nino to Neutral conditions persisting the last several months

  5. Tropical Pacific Status • Neutral conditions are present across the eastern equatorial Pacific • Sea surface temperatures (SST) about 0.4 degree above average • SSTs are showing a moderating or slowing trend right now

  6. Consensus ENSO Forecast

  7. Bottom Line… El Nino watch has been… • Instead, Neutral to very weak El Nino conditions expected

  8. ENSO & Spokane Snowfall

  9. Seasonal Snowfall • 35.2” as of February 12 • Average approximately another 10” mid February through April • 3 out of the last 4 years measured at least 12” in March and April

  10. Full Season Temperature Outlooks Mar/Apr/May Feb/Mar/Apr

  11. Full Season Precipitation Outlooks Mar/Apr/May Feb/Mar/Apr

  12. 8-14 Day Outlook (Feb 21-27) Precipitation Temperature

  13. NWS Resources: Insuring Decision MakersKnow How to Get the Information They Need

  14. NWS Spokane Webpage: Point and Click Forecast Map

  15. Hazardous Weather Outlook A more general description of potential weather hazards (Especially Days 2-7)

  16. Winter Weather Advisory Detailed Highlight What When Where Impacts

  17. Short Term Forecast (NOW Cast) • Used to convey rapidly evolving hazards • Heavy snow bands • Dense fog • Thunderstorms

  18. Resources: Detailed Hazards Interactive map highlighting exactly where the hazards/impacts are expected weather.gov/spokane

  19. Weather Story Event driven Highlight the expected impacts All hazards (severe weather, flooding, pattern changes, etc)

  20. All NWS Forecast Offices have Facebook, Twitter, and now Youtube! Follow, Like, and Subscribe for the latest information. Stay in Touch! National Weather Service Spokane @NWSSpokane NWS Spokane

  21. Survey We Need YOUR Help! • NWS Wants Your Comments on a Proposed Alternative to Simplify Winter Hazard Headlines • nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/ “THE NWS HAS ISSUED A __________ WATCH” Will be converted to… “THE NWS FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ______ “

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