1 / 107

Agricultural Market Outlook

Agricultural Market Outlook. April 30, 2014. University of Missouri Extension. Weather Outlook. Pat Guinan. April 30, 2014. Unusually persistent cool period…. Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* January 2013 – April 2014.

timothy-salas
Download Presentation

Agricultural Market Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Agricultural Market Outlook April 30, 2014 University of Missouri Extension

  2. Weather Outlook Pat Guinan April 30, 2014

  3. Unusually persistent cool period… Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* January 2013 – April 2014

  4. Wetter April conditions in portions of the Midwest … Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Apr 1 – Apr 29, 2014 Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Departure from Mean Apr 1 – Apr 29, 2014 MRCC MRCC

  5. Radar Estimated Weekly Rainfall (in.) Apr 23 – Apr 29, 2014 Major Flooding

  6. 40-45°F 35-40°F 45-50°F 50-55°F 55-60°F 60-65°F 65-70°F

  7. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

  8. 7-day precipitation forecast beginning 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 29 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, May 6, 2014 1.5 2 0.5 3 .25 .01 1 2

  9. 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook May 5-9, 2014 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook May 5-9, 2014

  10. Weather Resources on the Internet http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm Missouri Climate Center http://climate.missouri.edu River Information Resources for Missouri http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm

  11. Corn Outlook David Reinbott April 30, 2014

  12. Issues Impacting Prices on April 30 • Ukraine – Unrest & uncertainty • Planting Progress – 19% & 28% • Acres Planted – Change of 1- 2 million • U.S. Exports – Strong Exports

  13. Mar To Apr Change Supply & Demand: Corn +125 +125 -125 +0.10

  14. Change in Demand & E.S.

  15. Supply & Demand: Corn 2014-2015

  16. July 2014 Corn Futures $5.24

  17. July Weekly 2014 Corn Futures $5.94 $5.34

  18. December 2014 Corn Futures $5.17

  19. December Weekly 2014 Corn Futures $5.80 $5.30

  20. Cattle Outlook (title) Cattle Outlook Ron Plain April 30, 2014

  21. U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption 2012 per capita meat consumption the lowest since 1991 Source: USDA/ERS

  22. U.S. Cattle Inventory, January 1 2014: 87.73 million head, Down 1.8% Lowest inventory since 1951 Source: USDA/NASS

  23. January 2014 Cattle Inventory % of Year Ago All Cattle & Calves 98.2 Beef Cows 99.1 Dairy Cows 99.9 Beef Replace. Heifers 101.7 Dairy Replace. Heifers 99.7 Other Heifers 95.0 Steers 500 lbs & up 97.5 Calves under 500 lbs 96.3 Source: USDA/NASS

  24. U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly 2011 beef exports were record high

  25. Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly Source: USDA/ERS

  26. Thru mid April cattle slaughter was down 4.8%

  27. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  28. Thru mid April cow slaughter was down 8.9%

  29. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  30. Cattle On Feed April 1 cattle on feed: down 0.6%

  31. Cost of gain is roughly $96/cwt Source: LMIC

  32. U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds -----% Change----- 2012-132013-14. - 1.8% - 4.9% . +0.7% - 3.6% . +0.3% - 4.3% . - 2.3% - 5.0% . - 0.8% - 4.4% *forecast Note: Q3 12 & Q1 13 & Q1 14 have only 63 slaughter days

  33. Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Aug 2015 all cattle futures contracts are above $135 per cwt

  34. OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Apr 2015 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $180 per cwt

  35. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  36. Soybean Outlook David Reinbott April 30, 2014

  37. Issues Impacting Prices on April 30 • Ukraine – Unrest & uncertainty • U.S. Acres – plus 2 – 4 million acres • Chinese Defaults • Domestic Crush • U.S. Exports

More Related