PSM workshop -- October 14, 2011

1. PSM workshop -- October 14, 2011 Technology, Data, Analytics New possibilities in our lives -- The important role of tomorrow’s mathematics professionalsLilian Wu,Worldwide University Programs Executive, IBM

2. Analytics & Optimization CUSTOMERS MANUFACTURING WORKFORCE TRANSPORTATION SUPPLY CHAIN FACILITIES Everything is becoming INSTRUMENTED We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything. INTERCONNECTED People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways. INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events. IT

3. Massive amounts of data being captured on natural and man-made engineered structures, processes and systems Importance of Decision Making 70% of executives believe that poor decision making has had a degrading impact on their companies’ performance Only 9% of CFOs believe they excel at interpreting data for senior management Volume of Digital Data Every day, 15 petabytes of new information are being generated. This is 8x more than the information in all U.S. libraries. By 2010, the codified information base of the world is expected to double every 11 hours. Analytics, modeling, and visualization of these data can help to run our systems more effectively

4. Types of Analytics How can we achieve the best outcome including the effects of variability? Stochastic Optimization Prescriptive Optimization How can we achieve the best outcome? Predictive modeling What will happen next if ? Simulation What could happen … ? Predictive Degree of Complexity Forecasting What if these trends continue? Alerts What actions are needed? Query/drill down What exactly is the problem? Ad hoc reporting How many, how often, where? Descriptive Standard Reporting What happened? Based on: Competing on Analytics, Davenport and Harris, 2007

5. Analytics Skills Areas that IBM and Clients Need • Understanding the types of analytics • Database design • Data collection & mining (finding, cleansing, normalizing) • Database systems (design, implementation, on-line analytics of data) • Rules-based data integration and reduction • Stream computing and computing for multiple, parallel processing • Statistical analysis • Predictive analytics (modeling, simulation, forecasting) • Prescriptive analytics (optimization) • Descriptive analytics (score cards, dashboards, alerts) • Analytics in -- marketing, text, web, risk, transportation, energy, etc. • Risks, privacy, security, legal Implications • Project management • Inference and decision making • Applying analytics to real world problems

6. Vassar Brothers Medical Center Technology changes how systems and processes work – need mathematical models to better understand the changes and their consequences • 365 bed Regional Hospital in Poughkeepsie, NY • Four Centers of Clinical Excellence • The Heart Institute • Women’s & Children’ Services • The Dyson Center for Cancer Care • Center for Advanced Surgery • Nurses • 700 • Physicians • 520 privileges • Campus • 515,000 Sq. Ft. • Multiple Structures • Ranges - 10 to 100 years • Freestanding Ambulatory Center • 130,000 Sq. Ft • 15 miles south

7. Hospitals are Complex Systems Patients Doctors Nurses Staff Administrators Family members Employers Insurers Governments • Hospitals “Modern medicine is one of those incredible works of reason: an elaborate system of specialized knowledge, technical procedures, and rules of behavior.” • Paul Starr, author of The Social Transformation of American Medicine

8. OR techniques -- model and analyze new processes • RFID tags to track IV pumps • IV pumps – nurses typically spent over an hour each day looking for equipment – resulted in pumps being hoarded • No being properly cleaned • Not certified to be pumping the correct amounts • Changed to tagging each pump with an RFID to track location. • Twice daily equipment census and pick up unused pumps collected from central locations • Improve Asset Utilization • Reduce over-buying, lost assets • Workflow Optimization • Match equipment/people to need • Results • Reduce time staff spends looking for missing devices • Pumps cleaned and certified to be pumping the correct amounts • Planned purchase of $0.5M of new pumps – not necessary

9. OR -- city planning and management using geographical data DC Water & Sewer Authority -- Automated scheduling in a user selected zone of the city User selected region for scheduling • Goal: • Number of Crews = 2 • Shifts: 1 day shift per crew • Objective: Assign as many WO’s as possible to each crew, while maximizing the sum of the priority of the WO’s while meeting constraints of shift duration, lunch break & travel time.

10. Statistical Models -- city operations usinghistorical data Buildings:Reduce energy use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions 1,400 K-12 Public School Buildings in New York City 150 million sq ft – Joint project w. CUNY • Static Data (5 years energy consumption, building characteristics, weather) • Statistical analysis, monitoring, simulation, optimization of energy use, GHG emissions and retrofit planning with budget constraints • Technical Challenges • Processing large volumes of historical data from various sources • Developing physics-based models and statistical models for energy consumption • Simulation of energy demand, energy supply, and building operations to reduce energy consumption, cost and GHG emissions • Results for March 2011 • Martin Luther King Junior High School reduced its electricity consumption by 35.1% and 216,061 pounds of CO2 • The top 10 winning schools collectively saved 327,003 pounds of CO2 and average reduction of 16% in electricity consumption

12. Water -- In the last 100 years global water usage has increased at twice the rate of population growth • Produces table grape, pepper, stone fruit and citrus varieties on 12,000 acres in California • Analyzed different irrigation systems (incl. newer drip systems) impact on crop yields -- decreased water usage by 8.5% since 2006 • Better matching of farming equipment to specific harvesting tasks -- decreased fuel consumption by 20% since 2006

13. Marine research infrastructure of sensors and computational technology interconnected across Galway Bay collecting and distributing information on: coastal conditions pollution levels marine life Streaming real-time information to allow better decision-support related to: Weather threats Pollution alerts Algal bloom prediction Rogue waves, etc The monitoring services, delivered via the web and other devices – used for tourism, fishing, aquaculture and environment Monitoring and data collectionNatural Water System Management for Galway Bay (Ireland) Adapted from Smart Bay reference documentation See video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2XakurQCgU

14. Dynamic Real-time Model for Galway BayNat’l U of Ireland Galway and IBM collaboration Develop model of the water quality of a bay based on the hydro-dynamics of chemical diffusion. Sensors measuring the speed at the water surface will gather data and special streaming software will be used to continuously collect and add new data to recalibrate the model and its predictions. Two goals: 1. proof of concept for building -- a real-time continuous assimilation system (computer system + software) to model situations where real-time data + a model (e.g., traffic, smoke, fire, ...) are important; and 2. the science will inform analysis of the ecological impact of the release of waste water from the County of Donagal waste water treatment plant into its estuary.

15. Unstructured data / Natural language • Much of our smart world is built using highly structured data • But a large portion of information is unstructured • Much is based on natural language -- highly contextual and full of ambiguity. • The sheer mass of these unstructured data • Difficult for unassisted humans to assimilate • Beginning to explore what computers can do to assist

16. Watson • Human Language • Ambiguous, contextual, imprecise, and implicit • Contains slang, riddles, idioms, abbreviations, acronyms, … • Seemingly infinitenumber of ways to express the same meaning