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Historical contingency and structural determ i nations

Historical contingency and structural determ i nations. November’s riots are link to the death of the two adolescents running away from the police, To a political context defined by the words said by Mr Sarkozy as Minister of Interior: ‘Scum’ ‘Karcher’ (=water pressurize hose)

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Historical contingency and structural determ i nations

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  1. Historical contingency and structural determinations • November’s riots are link • to the death of the two adolescents running away from the police, • To a political context defined by the words said by Mr Sarkozy as Minister of Interior: ‘Scum’ ‘Karcher’ (=water pressurize hose) • But than is not the whole story: there were places where riots where more likely to happen and places where they where unlikely • To deal with the last aspect, we need indicators of the riots intensity / extension. I have taken two indicators : • Number of days fight between youngsters and the police • Number of cars burned per 100 000 inhabitants

  2. Absolute number of cars burned by administrative regions: 1st week; 2nd week ; 3rd week.

  3. Paris region : cities involved in the riots’wave number of days: white no riot ; dark blue more than a week

  4. % of cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants (more than 25 000 in Paris region) experiencing riots according to the presence of sentitive areas

  5. % of cities experiencing riots according to the proportion of large families in their sensitive districts% households with 6 people or more

  6. An urban renovation program has been launched in august 2003 by the National Agency for Urban Renovation (ANRU) (0.5 billions €, previouly money was split between the ministry of Housing and the ministry of the City (DIV)) • This program involve, during the period 2004-2007: renovation : 400000 housings destruction/rebuilding : 250 000 housings Intention: Reduce the density of housing, allow a wider diversity of occupation statuses (owner occupant, tenants), enforce the social mixity Short term consequences : Expulsions and threats of expulsion. The families which are the less mobile and who have only local connections are more sensitive. Moreover, often the social work supposed to prepare people has not been properly done.

  7. % of cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants experiencing riots according to urban renewal convention (destruction /rebuilding/rehabilitation)

  8. Linear correlations between indexes of riots’ intensity and unemployment (*) in French cities above 50 000 inhabitants

  9. Segregation indexes : comparison between two cities, A & B, composed of a sensitive area and a non-sensitive area of different size

  10. Riots’intensity according to the segregation index in the cities 10 toulouse(b sevran aulnaysous clichysous montfermei bondy chelles neuillysur marseille( Duration:days 5 aubervilli tremblayen stetienne( strasbourg metz(borny corbeil blancmesni lille(moye villiersle sartrouvil grigny evry noisylegra lyon manteslajo sète rennes tourcoing suresnes bobigny asnieres argenteuil villepinte trappes lormont-ce gargeslesg lesmureaux evreux(mad genevillie laricamari sarcelles saintouen hagondange cleon lens canne-gras wattignies sèvres meaux meudon bagnolet loos nice clamart roubaix watreloos savigny montreuil brétigny thiais epinaysena valencienn nancy(Cham villeneuve livrygarga miribel(ai stains acheres antibes dijon bassens hem epinaysurs nanterre champigny thionville conflansst kremlinbic tours rosnysousb noisylesec ormesson latourdupi villejuif pierrefitt saintdenis cergy lacourneuv paris bordeaux montigny-b angers annecy chatou boulognebi stgermaine elbeuf villemombl alfortvill bethune maisonsalf bezons poitiers vigneux(la drancy clichysein boisd'arcy maubeuge romainvill malakoff stmaur elancourt cherbourg fresnes franconvil puteaux choisylero leperreux stcloud lechesnay versailles courbevoie vincennes carrieress pantin houilles levaloispe créteil vitry fontenaysb montrouge antony massy(gden bagneux villierssu neuillysur chatillon issylesmou guyancourt rueilmalma plaisir 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Segregation: dissimilarity

  11. % cities experiencing riots in accordance with their segregation index

  12. Ordered logistic regressionNumber of obs (weighted) = 284; Wald chi2(4) = 77.53Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 ; Log pseudolikelihood = -268.83522 Pseudo R2 = 0.2012

  13. Riots 2005 in Seine St Denis : Observed duration and estimated duration

  14. Politics and riots • There is a direct correlation between the vote in favor of extreme right parties (in 2002) and the presence of riots (Pearson coef.= 0.4). • In my view, to a certain extent, riots on onne side and extreme rigth votes –an expression of political protest /alienation – are two aspects of these poor districts’ remoteness from « civic life ».

  15. Political and economic integration versus cultural integration Economic and political participation

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