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Grampian modelling team progress. Nick Gotts & Gary Polhill. Prototype model. A prototype model is to be based on the 0-8 family of FEARLUS. Mar-04. Jan-05. Dec-05. Apr-06. Jul-06. 0-6-5. 0-8. 0-8-1. 0-8-2. 0-8-3. 0-8-4. Minor enhancements for Grampian case study model, ELMM.
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Grampian modelling team progress Nick Gotts & Gary Polhill
Prototype model • A prototype model is to be based on the 0-8 family of FEARLUS Mar-04 Jan-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Jul-06 0-6-5 0-8 0-8-1 0-8-2 0-8-3 0-8-4 Minor enhancements for Grampian case study model, ELMM Government CBR Lookup tables Social approval Improved spatial model Pollution Parcel-by-parcel CBR
Improved spatial model in 0-8-2 • Separation of land cells from land parcels • Land cells are all of the same size • For biophysical properties and data storage • Blank cells are possible • Land parcels consist of one or more neighbouring land cells • Unit of decision and transfer • ARC Grid file compatible output and input format • Finer configuration possible • Initial land uses • Initial subpopulation • Initial land manager • Land parcel configuration • Scope for use with GIS [land manager] [land use]
Yield Land Use Soil type 23 15 11 31 ManagementStrategy 19 Climate Improved biophysical model in 0-8-3 • Bitstring-based biophysical model to be replaced by lookup tables • Specify the outcome for each situation • Advantages • Avoids commitment to any particular model • Still permits abstract representations • Potential issues • Discrete situations • Combinatorial demands for data • Particularly if outcome depends on many previous years
Land Holdings Land Holdings Mean Wealth Mean Wealth Prototype for Grampian Model: 0-8-4 • Uses ELMM • Endogenised Land Market Model • Collaboration with Dawn Parker • Has been shown to change the behaviour of the model • Minor enhancements to enable simulation of the case study • To be decided No Markets With Markets
Real World Scenario Equivalence Domain Structure Import Import & Subclass Framework Model Output Input Simulation Successor to FEARLUS(Dubbed fearlus 1-0) • Based on four ontologies • Domain Structure • Framework • Scenario • Model • Two states of the world (expressed as OWL instances) • Input • Output • Strengthening link between evidence and model • Design submitted to WCSS-2006