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PROGRESS the modelling

PROGRESS the modelling. Rene Jochem. Modeling: my story line. Recreation (density flow modeling). Ecology (habitat modeling). Effects (scenario modeling). Objective of this presentation. Focus on the methodology Illustrated by an example of a possible pilot action.

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PROGRESS the modelling

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  1. PROGRESS the modelling Rene Jochem

  2. Modeling: my story line Recreation (density flow modeling) Ecology (habitat modeling) Effects (scenario modeling)

  3. Objective of this presentation • Focus on the methodology • Illustrated by an example of a possible pilot action

  4. Modeling: my story line Recreation (density flow modeling) Ecology (habitat modeling) Effects (scenario modeling)

  5. Ecology : Habitat modeling • Process • Who was involved • What kind of data is available • Selecting species • Combining species and data • Example

  6. Ecology : Process • Preparing habitat maps • Based on modeling expert knowledge • 1st meeting: what do we have, how can we use it. • GIS maps • Distribution data • Field trip • Modeling • New habitat maps incorporating knowledge from experts & data • Analysis on distribution data • 2nd & 3th meeting : • habitat maps: proofing & fine tuning

  7. Ecology : Involvement • Species Data • BTO • RSPB • English Nature • Expert input in meeting's, ornithologist from: • Forestry Commission • RSPB • English Nature • Sovon (Dutch NGO, like BTO) • Alterra

  8. Ecology : Available GIS Data • Basic Data • Vegetation • Tree species • Felling data • Streams • Maintenance • Elevation • Tracks • Open landscape (distance to woodland) • Slope

  9. Ecology : Species Selection • Criteria: • Present species • Critical species • Affected by recreation • Level of protection • Data availability • Bird data • Presence/absence data • Environmental GIS Data

  10. Ecology : GIS Data => Habitat • Factors: • Vegetation type as mapped in 2003 • Forest coniferous or broadleaved • Gorse & Bracken • Distance to Woodland (Open areas 50, 150, 300 m) • Topography

  11. Ecology : Habitat factors & Selected species

  12. Ecology : Woodlark example

  13. Modeling: my story line Recreation (density flow modeling) Ecology (habitat modeling) Effects (scenario modeling)

  14. Recreation: GPS Analysis

  15. Recreation: GPS Statistical analysis Recreation: GPS Analysis

  16. Recreation: GPS Pattern Analysis

  17. Recreation: GPS Pattern Analysis

  18. Recreation: Pressure SCAN => compartments

  19. Recreation: Pressure SCAN

  20. Modeling: my story line Recreation (density flow modeling) Ecology (habitat modeling) Effects (scenario modeling)

  21. Modeling Effects • MASOOR => detailed recreation modeling • Input • User profiles • GPS data • Counting data • Path network & car parks • Result • Density flow on the path network • Translates into • Zones of lower reproduction

  22. Recreation: Pressure SCAN Shatterford Wilverly

  23. Population Dynamics

  24. Population Dynamics: Conservation • Selecting the manageable factors within the population dynamics processes • Improving habitat • Managing recreational pressures • …..

  25. Recreation & Bird behavior alarming increased fouraging fleeing decrease reproduction disturbance abandoning nest lower densities decrease nesting fouraging neighbour patch fouraging neighbour patch increase mortality neighbour patches nesting in neighbour patch abandoning nest decrease # in surrounding patches decrease exchange decrease reproduction extinction metapopulation – decrease viability increase extinction decrease # in patch lower densities

  26. Sensitivity to recreation

  27. MASOOR => density flow => disturbance zones • Path network (including path type) • GPS & Questionnaire data • User profiles • User data • Pattern validation

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