Space weather’s biological impacts: myths, the reality and new directions of the investigations

1. Space weather’s biological impacts: myths, the reality and new directions of the investigations • М. V. Ragulskaya* • V. N. Obridko* • S. M. Chibisov ** • * IZMIRAN, Russia • ** RUDN, Russia • ramary2000@yahoo.com

2. Outline • Reality : • New databases and knowledge • New technological methods • New mathematical methods of data processing • New ideas and scientific approaches • Scientific myths and their origination • New directions of investigations

3. Material and methods • Long –term helio-medical daily monitoring of physiological parameters for a constant group of volunteers(psycho-emotional tests, the ECG 1 st lead – 50 000 measurements, arterial blood pressure – 100 000 measurements, cardio-variability (the RR-interval) – 250 000 measurements, electric conductivity of skin bioactive points – > 500 000 measurements). • Telecommunication network, uniting research centers. Experiments were carried out simultaneously in different latitudes(Moscow, Kiev, Yakutsk, Irkutsk, Simferopol, Saratov) • Research centers working with the same equipment and using the same protocols with on-line recording of current data at the same portal server : • http://geliomed.immsp.kiev.ua

4. Telecommunication heliobiological network «Heliomed» 2003-2010 Yakutsk Saratov The tele-communication center of data collection and processing in Kiev Moscow (IZMIRAN) Kiev Simferopol

5. The measurements were carry out 4 times a day After psicho -emotional test Rest After 15 min relax After 20-s squats

6. A specific feature of monitoring “Geloimed” was computerized on-line phase space analysis ofECG, substitution coordinate space from A(t) to dA/dt (A)

7. Advantages of the method of long daily monitoring measurements which are carried on simultaneously in different cities • Obtaining of time-series data • Simultaneous analysis of individual and group effects • Repeatability + independent check by experts • Investigations of peculiarities of a human organism response on space weather changes in different latitudes and different phases of a solar cycle. • Separation of bio-effective impacts of cosmo-heliophysical factors and meteorological weather.

8. Project results • Space weather’s biological impacts (Editor M. V. Ragulskaya), Moscow- Kiev – SPb,ВВМ, 2010,312 p. *

9. Related activities Среда, 6 июня 2012, 15:00.Заседание междисциплинарного семинара Астрономического общества в конференц-зале ГАИШ МГУ.Ольга Валерьевна Хабарова (ИЗМИРАН)."Влияние космических факторов на эволюцию биосферы". Wednesday, June 6, 2012, 15:00 Interdisciplinary meeting of the Russian Astronomical society. Moscow State University, Sternberg Astronomical Institute. Olga Khabarova (IZMIRAN) “ Cosmic factors impact on the Earth’s biosphere evolution.”

10. The main myth : Geomagnetic storm is bad.Reality:Geomagnetic storm is not bad or good, but it is a natural synchronizer of the human rhythms. Ragulskaya & Khabarova, Biomedical radioelectronics, 2001

11. 2. Simultaneous reaction of people in different cities (distanced up to 6 500 km) Geomagnetic storm http://geliomed.immsp.kiev.ua

12. 3. New information technology and a program of automatic search of group effects in all cities ( V.V. Vishnevsky, Kiev)

13. 4. Nonlinear dynamic models of the electrocardiograms (V.V. Pipin, Irkutsk) System’s stability check (due to calculation of the Lyapunov coefficients): X' = Y, Y' = Z, Z' = F (X, Y, Z) F = −560 − 180Z − 1.3Z2 − 0.002Z3 + 2140Y − 8.3YZ +230( Y2 − Y3 ) − 17700X − 1240XZ − 4.4XZ2 −3850XY + 90XYZ − 70XY2 − 46525X2 −2250X2Z − 20000X2Y + 33618X3 Stationary points are inside P and T waves: SF SN Y = 0, Z=0, F (X, 0,0)=0 Saddle-Focus (-,+i,+i) λ=9.5 (-,-,+) λ≈1 P T Saddle-Node λ - decay increment of the largest eigen mode

14. The averaging procedure and extracting the typical ECG cycle 1. Constuct the ECG embedding into 3D phase space using the first 3 Principal Components of the ECG timeseries.

15. 2. Divide ECG on the separate cycles using the maxima of QRS • 3. Filtering the non-typical ECG beats out of the time- series via Housdorff distance • 4. Averaging along the reference trajectory and researching of the dynamical characteristics

16. Model the ECG via parametric amplifier with an instant and dynamic quenching

17. Weak external additive periodic forceF=0.1 sin (t/3) and F=0.1 sin (3t)It is appear, the additive external perturbations with lower frequency (in comparison with the internal frequency) are more feasible than the higher frequency perturbations

18. Basic regimes (in a phase space)

19. The human ECG signal shows the simultaneous co-existence of the number stable states of the ECG beats. • The heuristic 1D model with 2 governing parameters is proposed. One is responsible for the excitation and maintaining the cardiac oscillations. Another governs the dissipation effects. The numerical solution shows the existence of the several dynamical regimes, including the periodical, quasi-periodical and chaotic oscillations. • The additive external perturbations with lower frequency (compare to the internal frequency) are more feasible than the higher frequency perturbations

20. Response of a human organism at the cellular level - Human reaction on space weather changes is determined by not only upper-level organs and systems (for example, by nervous system), but mainly is realized at the lower, cellular level. -The maximum of correlation is observed between different organism’s characteristics and cosmic rays intensity. Hypothesis: Bio-effectiveness of cosmo-geophysical factors is an atavistic manifestation of the Earth biosphere’s adaptation to much stronger cosmic rays intensity level during the terrestrial life forming epoch

21. The main causes of the “astrobiological mythology” appearance • Insufficient length of analyzed data rows ( the true dynamic structure loss). • Insufficientnumber of subjects ( individual peculiarities suppress characteristics, typical for the whole population). • Shortcomings of the initial experiment planning(useful signal intensity ≤ noise amplitude). • Generalization of the results obtained in one place to the whole population (mishmash of local and global factors).

23. Thank for your attention!