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Simulating Sports: The Outputs

Simulating Sports: The Outputs Paul Bessire Product Manager, Quantitative Analysis and Content FOX Sports Interactive, WhatIfSports.com July 15, 2009 Table of Contents Ruth vs. Pedro Content Power Rankings Fantasy Gambling Trade Analysis Managerial Decisions Whitey vs. LaRussa

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Simulating Sports: The Outputs

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  1. Simulating Sports: The Outputs Paul Bessire Product Manager, Quantitative Analysis and Content FOX Sports Interactive, WhatIfSports.com July 15, 2009

  2. Table of Contents • Ruth vs. Pedro • Content • Power Rankings • Fantasy • Gambling • Trade Analysis • Managerial Decisions • Whitey vs. LaRussa

  3. What If? Pedro vs. Ruth 2000 Pedro Martinez vs. 1923 Babe Ruth

  4. What If? Pedro vs. Ruth - Stats Ruth in 1923 HBP/PA: .006 BB/(PA-HBP): .245 H/AB: .393 K/OUT: .293 2B/H: .220 3B/H: .063 HR/H: .200 Pedro in 2000 HBP/PA: .017 BB/(PA-HBP): .040 H/AB: .167 K/OUT: .444 2B/H: .180 3B/H: .016 HR/H: .133

  5. What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – League Averages 1923 AL HBP/PA: .013 BB/(PA-HBP): .085 H/AB: .283 K/OUT: .120 2B/H: .169 3B/H: .047 HR/H: .037 2000 AL HBP/PA: .010 BB/(PA-HBP): .096 H/AB: .276 K/OUT: .246 2B/H: .197 3B/H: .019 HR/H: .124

  6. What If? Pedro & Ruth vs. Historical Average Babe Ruth (1923 – 745 PAs) AVG: .380 OBP: .533 SLG: .683 OPS: 1.216 BB: 180 HBP: 4 H: 213 2B: 33 3B: 8 HR: 41 K: 125 Pedro Martinez (2000 – 817 BFs) OAV: .162 OBP: .207 SLG: .223 OPS: .430 BB: 27 HBP: 13 H: 114 2B: 14 3B: 1 HR: 8 K: 244

  7. What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – Normal Ratios HBP/PA: .009 BB/(PA-HBP): .120 H/AB: .261 K/OUT: .606 2B/H: .145 3B/H: .015 HR/H: .197 Stats (745 PAs) AVG: .261 OBP: .355 SLG: .465 OPS: .820 BB: 88 HBP: 6 H: 170 2B: 27 3B: 3 HR: 33 K: 291

  8. What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – Coors Ratios HBP/PA: .009 BB/(PA-HBP): .120 H/AB: .306 K/OUT: .606 2B/H: .143 3B/H: .021 HR/H: .251 Stats (745 PAs) AVG: .306 OBP: .394 SLG: .602 OPS: .996 BB: 88 HBP: 6 H: 199 2B: 27 3B: 4 HR: 52 K: 273

  9. What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – Petco Ratios HBP/PA: .009 BB/(PA-HBP): .117 H/AB: .232 K/OUT: .606 2B/H: .134 3B/H: .033 HR/H: .158 Stats (745 PAs) AVG: .232 OBP: .329 SLG: .399 OPS: .728 BB: 88 HBP: 6 H: 151 2B: 27 3B: 5 HR: 24 K: 303

  10. WIS Content • 10,000 simulations for scenarios of interest • Removes bias; powerful tool good at giving odds • Everything is tangible (heart, chemistry, etc.) • Since June, 2007: 600+ articles, 250+ radio interviews • Predicting major sporting events: • All NFL and College Football Games • March Madness • World Series, NBA Finals, NHL Stanley Cup • Hypothetical Matchups: • December Madness • Redeem Team vs. Dream Team • Trade Analysis • Current and Historical Rankings

  11. WhatIfSports Performance • Most likely outcomes since Super Bowl XLII: • Kansas over Memphis in 2008 March Madness as of Selection Sunday (last 15 games correct) • Red Wings over Penguins in 2008 Stanley Cup Final (scores almost identical) • Celtics over Lakers in 2008 NBA Finals (in six games) • Phillies over Rays in 2008 World Series (five games second most likely) • Steelers over Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII (by four points on average) • UNC to win 2009 March Madness (as of Selection Sunday) • Penguins over Red Wings in 2009 Stanley Cup Final (in seven games) • Lakers over Magic in 2009 NBA Finals • Chance we had for getting all winners correct: 0.32% or 1 in 308 • Other notable predictions: • St. Louis Cardinals to win 2006 World Series over Detroit (in five games) • 88% accuracy in 2006 bowl games • Four of last five Super Bowl, March Madness and World Series winners

  12. Power Rankings - Current Every current team against every other champion 100 times and ranked by winning percentage:

  13. Power Rankings – All-Time Every champion against every other champion 100 times and ranked by winning percentage:

  14. Trade Analysis On-field “chemistry” tested against actual opponents: • Jake Peavy to CWS • Bad deal for all • White Sox increase wins from 72.6 to 77.7; playoff odds 6.9% to 11.4% • Peavy just slightly better than AL average in homer-friendly park • Brett Favre to Vikings (or Jets or Packers) • Shaq to Cavs

  15. Acquiring/Drafting Players On-field “value” tested against actual opponents: • Manny pre-season • 2009 Dodgers without Manny - 84.4 wins, 30.5% playoffs • 2009 Dodgers with Manny – 89.8 wins, 42.3% playoffs • Missing Manny • 50 games with Manny – 31.6 wins • 50 games without Manny – 29.3 wins (actual: 29) • Final record from 100.7 wins to 98.9 wins • NFL Draft

  16. Fantasy Pre-season and weekly projections add actual schedule to robust analysis: 2009 NFL Projections (link)

  17. Gambling (NFL Example) • Straight Up (Four Year Totals) • 69.7% Overall • 90.5% Top 5 Weekly “Power Picks” • Against the Spread • 2008 NFL Lock of the Week • Chosen by highest winning percentage ATS • 84.2%ATS • 56.3% ATS (Four Year Total) • 87.5% ATS all games in playoffs • Removes bettor bias • Uncovers mismatches • Identifies top picks and exact odds • Overall performance peaks early and late in season • O/U • Futures • Finding lines where the odds are greatly in bettors favor • Miami Dolphins to win division as of Week 7 in 2008 • Props • Likelihood above or below stats thresholds • Tracking beginning with 2009 NFL

  18. Managerial Decisions • Optimization • Lineups/Depths • Situational tendencies • Live Odds • Team winning expected winning% • Simulated at any time before or in game • Accounts for all future events and interactions • Analyze best possible decisions to make at each moment • Stats • Sample size issues with specific batter vs. pitcher • Actual vs. L and vs. R should be ok • Likelihood of surpassing contractual incentives • Do teams need to fit managers or do managers need to adjust to teams?...

  19. LaRussa vs. Whitey • LaRussa (Using 2006 World Series Team) • Limited running • Batting pitcher 8th • Five-man rotation • Fluid bullpen • Playing the odds • Herzog (Using 1982 World Series Team) • Run often • Aggression and attrition/irritation • Four-man rotation • Relief ace • Also GM

  20. LaRussa vs. Whitey – Results (10,000 Simulations) 2006 LaRussa vs. 1982 Whitey: 1982 55.6% win 5.02 runs scored per game 4.46 runs allowed per game 2006 44.4% win 4.46 runs scored per game 5.02 runs allowed per game 2006 Whitey vs. 1982 LaRussa: 1982 59.3% win 5.53 runs scored per game 4.56 runs allowed per game 2006 40.7% win 4.56 runs scored per game 5.53 runs allowed per game

  21. Special Thanks To Dr. Stephen Moehrle & Dean Keith Womer, University of Missouri – St. Louis Dr. James Cochran, Louisiana Tech University Dr. Michael Fry, University of Cincinnati Dr. Jeffrey Ohlmann, University of Iowa Tom Zentmeyer, FOX Sports Interactive Joel Bessire, formerly of FOX Sports Interactive Chris O’Brien and Mike Schneid, FOX Sports Interactive

  22. Thanks Questions? Suggestions? Comments? Email: PBessire@WhatIfSports.com Phone: 513-291-0321 See me for business card with promo code

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