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Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future

Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future. William J. Gutowski, Jr. Dept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Dept. of Agronomy Iowa State University. Major contributions from : Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Iowa State University

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Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future

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  1. Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future William J. Gutowski, Jr. Dept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Dept. of Agronomy Iowa State University Major contributions from: Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle Iowa State University J. H. Christensen, O. B. Christensen Danish Meteorological Institute Copenhagen, Denmark ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)

  2. Outline • Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Why? • Physical Basis • Simulation Considerations • A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change • Conclusions ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)

  3. Outline • Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Why? • Physical Basis • Simulation Considerations • A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change • Conclusions ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)

  4. Why Regional Climate Models? • Global Climate Models: • nearly closed system • complete representation

  5. Why Regional Climate Models? • Global Climate Models: • nearly closed system • complete representation • However: • high computing demands • limits resolution • many surface features unresolved (esp. human-scale)

  6. Why Regional Climate Models? • Regional Climate Models: • sacrifice global coverage • higher resolution

  7. TERRAIN HEIGHT Global Model Resolution DX = 250 km contours every 250 m

  8. TERRAIN HEIGHT Regional Model Resolution DX = 50 km contours every 250 m

  9. TERRAIN HEIGHT Future Model Resolution? DX = 10 km contours every 250 m

  10. Outline • Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Why? • Physical Basis • Simulation Considerations • A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change • Conclusions ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)

  11. RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics 1. Conservation of Thermodynamic Energy (First Law of Thermodynamics) 2. Conservation of Momentum (Newton’s Second Law) 3. Conservation of Mass

  12. Conservation of “M”

  13. Conservation of “M”

  14. Conservation of “M”

  15. Conservation of “M”

  16. Conservation of “M”

  17. RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics 1. Conservation of Thermodynamic Energy (First Law of Thermodynamics): Heat input = D (internal energy) + (work done) Transport and accumulation by circulation

  18. Radiation to/from space Heat Source/Sink Condensation “Contact” heat exchange Radiation to/from surface

  19. RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics 2. Conservation of Momentum (Newton’s Second Law): D(wind)/ D(time) = S(forces)

  20. RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics 3. Conservation of Mass: Special constituent - water

  21. Moisture In/Out Evapotranspiration Precipitation

  22. Water Cycle Q Q P P E E R

  23. Water Cycle Heat released E Heat absorbed

  24. Water is thus a primary • form of heat transport • heat absorbed when evaporates • released when water condenses • largest individual source of energy for the atmosphere

  25. Water Cycle Radiation absorbed by water & re-emitted

  26. Water is thus a primary • form of heat transport • heat absorbed when evaporates • released when water condenses • largest individual source of energy for the atmosphere • and greenhouse gas • ~ transparent to solar • absorbs/emits infrared

  27. RCM Foundation: Fundamental Laws of Physics 1. Conservation of Thermodynamic Energy (First Law of Thermodynamics) 2. Conservation of Momentum (Newton’s Second Law) 3. Conservation of Mass Plus: Ideal Gas Law

  28. Outline • Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Why? • Physical Basis • Simulation Considerations • A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change • Conclusions ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)

  29. Evapotranspiration

  30. Evapotranspiration E~ - CW{eair-esat(Ts)}

  31. Evapotranspiration E~ - CW{eair-esat(Ts)} CW = CW(atmos.) but also CW = CW(physiology) soil moisture CW µ leaf temp. sunlight CO2 level

  32. RCM Horizontal Grid (IMAX,JMAX) I (1,1) J

  33. RCM Horizontal Grid (IMAX,JMAX) I (1,1) J

  34. RCM Horizontal Grid How does a “flat” grid ...

  35. RCM Horizontal Grid ? ...represent part of the spherical earth? How does a “flat” grid ...

  36. RCM Horizontal Grid By projection to a flat plane

  37. RCM Horizontal Grid True at 90o PolarStereographic

  38. RCM Horizontal Grid True at, e.g., 30o and 60o Lambert Conformal

  39. RCM Horizontal Grid Mercator True at 0o

  40. RCM Horizontal Grid Forcing Frame: for lateral boundary conditions “free” interior

  41. Earth Climate System Q P E E R

  42. Scales of Climate Global Regional Regional Regional Regional Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microclimate A Microclimate B Microclimate C Air-Transported Pathogen B Air-Transported Pathogen A Solar, IR, wind, CO2, CO, NOx,SO2, H2O, temperature, trace gases, shading, particulate matter Solar, IR, wind, CO2, CO, NOx,SO2, H2O, temperature, trace gases, shading, particulate matter Solar, IR, wind, CO2, CO, NOx,SO2, H2O, temperature, trace gases, shading, particulate matter Surface slope, IR Radiation, Evaporation, Biogeochemicals Crop A Crop B Chemicals Chemicals Chemicals Plant B Plant A Human Influences Insect A Management Management Insect B Particulate Deposition, Precipitation, Solar Radiation, IR Chemicals Soil Pathogen B Soil Pathogen D Erosion Detritus Soil A H2O, temperature, nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals Soil A H2O, temperature, nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals Soil C H2O, temperature, nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals Soil B H2O, temperature, nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals Soil B H2O, temperature, nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals Hydrology, Soil Microbiology, Soil Biochemistry Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Regional Regional Regional Regional Continental Scales of Landforms

  43. Outline • Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Why? • Physical Basis • Simulation Considerations • A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change • Conclusions ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)

  44. Projections of Future Climate • Simulate decades/centuries into future • How are projections verified?

  45. Projections of Future Climate • Simulate decades/centuries into future • How are projections verified? • Accuracy of present climate simulation?

  46. Projections of Future Climate • Simulate decades/centuries into future • How are projections verified? • Accuracy of present climate simulation? • Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?

  47. Projections of Future Climate • Simulate decades/centuries into future • How are projections verified? • Accuracy of present climate simulation? • Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation? • Alternative …

  48. Projections of Future Climate • Simulate decades/centuries into future • How are projections verified? • Accuracy of present climate simulation? • Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation? • Alternative …

  49. Cross-Compare Multiple Simulations

  50. Simulation Domain

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