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A Major Climate/Ecosystem Shift Observed in the Northern Bering Sea James E. Overland1, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier2, Sue E. Moore3, Ed V. Farley4, Eddy C. Carmack5, L.W. Cooper2, K E. Frey.6, J.H, Helle4, F.A. McLaughlin5, S. Lyn McNutt7, Phyllis Stabeno11 NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, james.e.overland@noaa.gov2 The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 3NOAA/NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA4 NOAA/NMFS, Auke Bay Laboratory, Juneau, AK5Institute of Ocean Sciences,, Sidney, Canada6 Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA7University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
POSTERS Igor Belkin Bering Sea Frontal Pattern Douglas Dasher Aleutian Islands, Coastal Environmental Monitoring Assessment Program
Recent loss of sea ice in southern Bering Sea –Spring 2000-2005
Vertically Averaged Temperature (°C) at M2: 2 deg C increase in winter after 2000 Above freezing point Stabeno
Southern Bering Sea Ecosystem Changes Warm temperatures favor pollock over Arctic species 1999 2003
Northern Bering Sea Ice Concentration ( Aprils 2000-2004) and St. Lawrence Temperature Changes Coming out in Science
Change in Benthic Biology SW of St. Lawrence Island -Grebmeier
10 M new Salmon in the N. Bering Sea in 2004- following increase northward movement of pollock - Helle
Walrus herd in the Chukchi Sea– June 2002 [M. Webber-USFWS] Clam food in walrus stomachs [photos courtesy G. Sheffield] Schematic of food web in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas [Grebmeier and Dunton 2000]
Sept 2003 Warm Surface Temperatures -4 -2 0 2 4 deg C Persistent Arctic Changes Sea Ice Decreasing From NSIDC Tundra shown in Pink Tundra Decreasing Overland and Wang 2005a Wang and Overland 2004
Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index EOF 1 Sea Level Pressure Thompson and Wallace, 1998 Geo. Res. Let.
Climate Patterns Temperature Anomalies 1977-1988 (PNA+) 1989-1995 (AO+) 1996-2004 (Arctic Warm) Pacific North American Arctic Oscillation
New Climate Pattern Air Temperature Wind/Pressure fields Overland and Wang, GRL, 2005b
It’s too warm! Future: Continued ice reductions due to Arctic feedback processes (winds, clouds, ocean currents) Or: Shift to different climate pattern within next 5 years with eventual return to warm pattern Thanks for support from NOAA Arctic Research Program North Pacific Research Board
Spotted seals are found much further in from the ice edge 300 km vs. 25 km