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AT THE DAWN OF A GLOBAL ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. THE only natural habitat for Muslims. The Islamic State. Mohammad Bouazizi.
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THE only natural habitat for Muslims The Islamic State
Mohammad Bouazizi • March 17 marked ninety days since Mohammad Bouazizi set himself ablaze in the southern city of SidiBouzid in Tunisia. Protesting against the authorities, who insulted him and seized his sole means of sustenance, Bouazizi's desperate act of self-immolation sparked demonstrations all over the country that ended with Tunisia’s despotic president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fleeing the country on January 14.
Rumsfeld In Tunisia • TUNIS, TUNISIA - FEBRUARY 11: U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, sitting second from left, listens to President of Tunisia Zine El Abidine Ben Ali at the Tunisia presidential palace February 11, 2006 in Tunis, Tunisia. • Seated to the left of Rumsfeld is U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Secretary Affairs Peter Rodman. • Following his attendance at the two-day NATO Informal Meetings of Defense Ministers in Taormina, Sicily, Rumsfeld arrived in Tunisia for meetings with Morjane and Tunisia President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
The downfall of Ben Ali’s regime was itself the spark for the Egyptian revolution, which erupted eleven days later. By February 11, the Egyptian regime had also collapsed when its head, Hosni Mubarak, was forced to resign in disgrace after much obstinate and arrogant behavior. • Within days, Mubarak’s fall set off or accelerated several uprisings across the Arab world, with people demanding the downfall of several regimes, especially in Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya.
It is remarkable how in a relatively short period of time- three months- the entire Arab World has been transformed from a static and bleak political status quo to a dynamic and lively force for far-reaching change. Hence, it is prudent to take the time to assess the political sea change across the Arab world in the past few months.
Since the victory of the popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, many of the demands pressed by the pro-democracy forces have been met. In Egypt, a new government has been formed and led by Dr. EsamSharaf. As a former Transportation Minister years ago he broke ranks with the Mubarak regime over corruption and cover-ups. He was also one of the early supporters of the revolution, joining the demonstrators in Tahrir Square, and has since been widely supported by the people.
Similarly, the Tunisian revolution forced the appointment of a new cabinet led by the popularly admired BejiCaid-Essebsi, who is known for his integrity and commitment to democracy. Not only were the brutal state security services totally abolished but the former ruling party was also outlawed and many of its officials indicted on serious corruption charges. Moreover, a new democratic constitution and new elections will take place later this summer.
Mohammad Bouazizi set himself ablaze in the southern city of SidiBouzid in Tunisia. Protesting against the authorities, who insulted him and seized his sole means of sustenance, Bouazizi's desperate act of self-immolation sparked demonstrations all over the country that ended with Tunisia’s despotic president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fleeing the country on January 14.
Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) • In December 1991, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) party gained popularity amongst the Algerian people. • In the first round, the FIS won 188 of 430 seats and was poised to attain the 75% majority needed to amend the constitution and form an Islamic state. • And the National Liberation Front (FLN) party, fearing the former's victory, cancelled elections after the first round. • At this time the country's military effectively took control of the government, and president ChadliBendjedid was forced from office. • After the FIS was banned and thousands of its members arrested, Islamist guerrillas rapidly emerged and began an armed campaign against the government and its supporters.
new constitution in 1989 • In 1989, he brought in a new constitution which disestablished the ruling party, the National Liberation Front (FLN), and made no mention of socialism, while promising "freedom of expression, association, and assembly". • Given that the military regime lacks legitimacy, while the FIS has widespread public support, and the GIA has sufficient personnel, resources and support to wage a low level conflict against the military, it seems likely that the regime will ultimately be deposed either through elections or violence.
western states prefer a non-Islamic state • Although western states prefer a non-Islamic state, the FIS would not appear to pose an external threat to regional stability. • However, the military regime is far from willing to step down and until it does the savage killing is expected to continue, with the potential to evolve into full-scale civil war. • The Berbers, who make-up 17% of the population are growing increasingly discontent and threaten to mount a separatist movement, that would inevitably entail further violence, while unforeseen events and more dramatic terrorist actions could impact further on Europe.
If the FIS comes • The West's support of the status quo in the Muslim world is creating great problems. • The international community's not recognizing the people's right to choose their own political authority radicalizes the armed struggle. • If the FIS comes to the power through evolutionary change, we can assure that its program will be implemented. • But if we have to bring down the military regime through armed struggle, we cannot be sure what changes a revolution will bring. • http://www.danielpipes.org/6315/anwar-haddam-islamist-vision-for-algeria
FIS majority 50% FIS non-FIS majority Undecided No data available In the above provincial seat allocation results of the 1991 elections, the FIS attained majorities in most of Algeria's populated areas.
Algeria's President Bouteflika shakes hands with his Iranian counterpart Ahmadinejad in Algiers
lifted the state of emergency • Major popular protests taking place in Algeria since early February have faced harsh repression, including beatings and arrests by the security forces. In an attempt to stem the tide, the regime promised future political reforms, but more importantly, it lifted the state of emergency that has been imposed in the country since 1991. • This infamous law was used as a pretext to commit immense human rights abuses and stifle political activity by the opposition in the country.
Upon major demonstrations across the country, the president of Mauritania promised to offer his people major political and economic reforms.
Since February 3, huge, peaceful demonstrations have been engulfing Yemen against the thirty-three year rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh. • The protests in Yemen are very similar to the huge protests of the Egyptian revolution. • Millions of people have been demanding the departure of Saleh. • All opposition parties, major tribes, civil society organizations, unions, universities, and major religious figures such as Abdulmajid Al-Zandani have joined the protests. • Even dozens of ruling party members in the parliament, military officers, and other officials have resigned in protest of the brutality of the security forces.
Saleh regime has been sustained by two major power bases, the security and army units led by his son, nephews, and other close relatives, as well as by the fierce loyalty of major leaders of his tribe. • But despite hundreds of casualties, the protesters are determined to continue their peaceful demonstrations and sit-ins until the regime collapses. • Saleh has made overtures including pledging to step down at the end of his term in 2013, holding new elections, and forming a national unity government. As Yemen increasingly follows the Egyptian course, it is only a matter of time before the regime’s downfall is realized.
Islamists gaining power • Yemen presents the greatest likelihood of regime overthrow and the greatest chance of Islamists gaining power. • However deficient an autocrat and however circumscribed his power, the wily Ali Abdullah Saleh, in office since 1978, has been about as good an ally the West could hope for, notwithstanding his ties to Saddam Hussein and the Islamic Republic of Iran, to exert control over the hinterlands, limit incitement, and fight Al-Qaeda.
Other GCC countries, such as Oman and Saudi Arabia, also faced several protests and demands for political reforms. They, too, were met with security crackdowns and economic promises. The Saudi King, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, promised his people economic relief close to $37 Billion, while the GCC countries promised the Sultan of Oman $10 Billion in economic aid. • Despite the transparent attempt to bribe their populations, hundreds of notable individuals in the GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the U.A.E, have petitioned their rulers to enact real political and democratic reforms before it is too late.
Oman faced several protests and demands for political reforms. They, were met with security crackdowns and economic promises. The GCC countries promised the Sultan of Oman $10 Billion in economic aid. • Despite the transparent attempt to bribe their populations, hundreds of notable individuals in the GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the U.A.E, have petitioned their rulers to enact real political and democratic reforms before it is too late.
Several nascent protests by few hundred people in Syria were swiftly met with crackdown and arrests by the security apparatus. • The country has been ruled by the minority Alawite sect since 1970, and placed under a state of emergency since 1963. • But the extent of the vioence of the regime, when it killed over 20,000 during the 1982 popular uprising in the city of Hamah, is still fresh in the minds of the Syrian people. • Meanwhile, the Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad offered limited economic relief to the poor, pardoned a small number of political prisoners, and pledged to pursue political reforms.
