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GKSS is a member of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National

GKSS is a member of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National Research Centres (HGF e. V.). Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS. Hans von Storch , director. GKSS Research Program – today. We perform fundamental and applied research. Research for Managing the Coastal Zone.

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GKSS is a member of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National

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  1. GKSS is a member of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National Research Centres (HGF e. V.) Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS Hans von Storch, director Shanghai, August 2007

  2. GKSS Research Program – today We perform fundamental and applied research Research for Managing the Coastal Zone Lightweight Structures for Transportation and Energy Industries Membranes in Process Technology In the Institutes for: Coastal Research Material Science Chemistry Shanghai, August 2007

  3. Institute for Coastal Research • of GKSS Research Center • Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal research program are • How is global change affecting the coastal system? • What is the present state and present change of the coastal zone? • How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor coastal processes? Shanghai, August 2007

  4. multi-dimensional environments (geophysical, ecological, social, economic), the character and utilization of which are shaped by the relationship to the sea. a subsystem of the global Earth System. As such, a comprehensive view and analysis is only possible using an Earth System modeling approach. under the influences of global changes in the environmental system (climate change) and in the social system (globalization; aestheticization). key regions for global ecosystems significant factors of global cycles of matter (sources; temporary storage) Coasts are … Shanghai, August 2007

  5. Coastal areas are made up of • coastal sea • coastal land • catchment climate variability and change Shanghai, August 2007

  6. Institutions/Platforms engaged in GKSS/AWI cooperation Sylt Uni Kiel FTZ Helgoland Uni HH Bremerhaven Geesthacht Uni Bremen Shanghai, August 2007

  7. Issues briefly touched in the following • CoastDat – retrospective and prospective decadal simulations of marine weather – North Sea; also: E Asian coastal regions. • North German Climate Office • BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region Shanghai, August 2007

  8. Regional and local conditions – in the recent past and next century Simulation with barotropicmodel of North Sea Globale development(NCEP) Tide gauge St. Pauli Dynamical DownscalingREMO or CLM Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies Empirical Downscaling Shanghai, August 2007

  9. NCEP Global Reanalyses 1958 - 2002 IPCC A2 Global Warming Scenario, 2070 - 2100 D ≈ 200km SN-REMO storm count trend 1958-2002 TRIM 3d storm surge statistics change in high percentiles, A2 scenario 2070-2100 WAM sig. wave height trend in severe events TRIM 3dwater level and barotropic currents 21.02.1993 12 UTC SN-REMO wind speed and direction 21.02.1993 12 UTC WAM sig. wave height and direction 21.02.1993 12 UTC grid size about 5 x 5 km grid size between about 100 m and 5km grid size about 50 x 50 km Shanghai, August 2007

  10. The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS • Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years) • Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe • “Standard” model systems (“frozen”) • Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances. • Data freely available. Applications • many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts • economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company • Public information www.coastdat.de Shanghai, August 2007

  11. As a prerequisite to derive and assess changing statistics of typhoon formation in SE Asia, simulation models should demonstrate their capability to simulate year-to-year variations of typhoon statistics in SE Asia during the past 40-50 years. During this period, NCEP and ERA have constructed global-reanalyses describing the large scale atmospheric state with some fidelity, but spatial details are not that well described. Therefore regional atmospheric models, forced with global re-analyses, may be a suitable tool to reconstruct the past decades’ variability. A number of partners have agreed on a comparative study, namely to run their different regional atmospheric models for the storm-rich season of 1994 and the storm-poor season of 1998. The focus of the analysis will be on the number of storms, their tracks and their core pressure developments as well as on the mean circulation. A comparative study on the retrospective simulation of typhoon seasons in SE Asia Shanghai, August 2007

  12. GKSS, Dr. Frauke Feser, Geesthacht, Germany, with the spectrally nudged model CLM. National Taiwan University, Prof. Ming-Chin Wu, Taipei, Taiwan, with RSM National Central University, Prof. C. Sui, Jung-Li, Taiwan, with the MM5 model Seoul National University, Prof Dong-Kyou Lee, Seoul, S Korea, with the model REG-CM2 and a bogus-technique to introduce typhoons Data for atmospheric conditions will be helped with by Central Weather Bureau, Dr. Mong-Ming Lu, Taipei, Taiwan Prof Tim Li, IPRC, with his model-based analysis of the 2004-season.  Since analyses of wind on the sea are of limited reliability, a validation using derived wave conditions may be helpful. An agreement has been made thatNational Cheng Kung University, Prof. Chia Chuen Kao, Tainan, Taiwan will use the wind and pressure output of the regional models to run an ocean wave model and compare the output to ocean wave observations. Participating modelling groups Shanghai, August 2007

  13. North German Climate Office@GKSS • An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders • that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders • that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. • Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning Shanghai, August 2007

  14. BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region Shanghai, August 2007

  15. BACC: The purpose … … of the BACC assessment was to provide the scientific community and the public with an assessment of ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region. This was done by reviewing published scientific knowledge about climate change in the Baltic Sea region. An important element was the comparison with the historical past (until about 1800) to provide a framework for the severity and unusualness of the change. Also changes in environmental systems, due to climate change, were assessed – such as hydrological regimes and ecosystems. Shanghai, August 2007

  16. Introduction and Policy Advise Past and Current Climate Change Projections of Future Climate Change Climate-related Change in Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems Climate-related Change in Marine Ecosystems Annexes BACC report: Chapters Shanghai, August 2007

  17. Presently a warming is going on in the Baltic Sea region. BACC considers it plausible that this warming is at least partly related to anthropogenic factors. So far, and in the next few decades, the signal is limited to temperature and directly related variables, such as ice conditions. Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to become obvious. This regional warming will have a variety of effects on terrestrial and marine ecosystems – some predictable such as the changes in the phenology others so far hardly predictable. BACC results: In short … Shanghai, August 2007

  18. BACC report officially accepted by HELCOM board as basis for further for analysis in March 2007. Based upon the BACC review HELCOM has prepared its own analysis of recent, ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region – and the implications for environmental politics. Problem: tight timeline at HELCOM vs. quality control at BACC. BACC: HELCOM analysis Shanghai, August 2007

  19. Climate Research done at: Institute for Oceanography: global ocean re-analysis; regional oceanography. Institute for Meteorology; dynamical meteorology, predictability (incl. typhoons); urban climate. and other institutes, dealing with soils, forests, marine ecosystems and economy. Geoscience Institutes@Hamburg University Shanghai, August 2007

  20. Shanghai, August 2007

  21. Climate science in Hamburg, Germany • A series of world-class scientific institutions in Hamburg: • the Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology, • the geosciences institutes of Hamburg University and • the Institute for Coastal Research of the federal research laboratory GKSS. • and their joint “daughter”, the German Climate Computer Center • plus a series of (partly) climate related service and application institutions, among others: • Office for Marine Weather (DWD), the Federal Waterways Engineering,Research Institute (BAW), the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH)and the municipal Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) Shanghai, August 2007

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