1 / 26

Demographic Study Update for the Vernon Township School District

Demographic Study Update for the Vernon Township School District. Prepared by Statistical Forecasting LLC September 19, 2013. Statistical Forecasting LLC. Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area.

alec
Download Presentation

Demographic Study Update for the Vernon Township School District

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Demographic Study Update for the Vernon TownshipSchool District Prepared by Statistical Forecasting LLC September 19, 2013

  2. Statistical Forecasting LLC • Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. • Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. • Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

  3. Richard S. Grip Ed.D. • Executive Director • Doctorate from Rutgers University GSE Educational Statistics and Measurement. • Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally. • Testified as an expert witness on school demography in several court cases.

  4. Purpose of the Study • Project grade-by-grade enrollments for 2013-14 through 2017-18 using district historical enrollments, birth data, and new housing starts.

  5. Results from 2011 Report • Decline was greater than projected.

  6. Historical and Projected Populations from 1940-2030

  7. Vernon Township Demographic Characteristics • 95.2% White, 6.4% Hispanic in 2010 • Median Age = 40.5 years. Under 18 age pop. declined from 30.6% in 2000 to 24.3% in 2010 • Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 18.1% in 2010, down from 25.3% in 2000 • Median family income = $89,722 • Nearly 11,000 housing units, of which 78.7% are occupied. Most vacant homes are second-homes (16%). • 11.4% of housing units are renter-occupied • Median value owner-occupied unit = $279,200.

  8. District Overview • Six schools in the district in a PK-1, 2-4, 5-6, 7-8, 9-12 configuration. • District’s October 2012 enrollment was 3,640, which is a loss of 1,340.5 (-26.9%) students since the 2006-07 school year. • Declined 401 students in last two years. • Cohort-Survival Ratio method (CSR) was used to project enrollment five years into the future. • Total capacity in the district is approximately 4,778 students.

  9. School Locations

  10. Cohort Survival Ratio Method • Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2011-12 become 95 2nd graders in 2012-13 = 0.95) • Survival ratios are computed for a number of historical years. Five-year and six-year averages were computed in this analysis and used to project future enrollments.

  11. Historical Enrollment 2006-07 to 2012-13

  12. Historical Enrollment by Level

  13. Kindergarten Replacement • Negative kindergarten replacement in each of the last 6 years. • Number of graduating 12th grade students is greater than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. • The district lost 127.5 students in 2012-13 due to this phenomenon, as 348.5 twelfth graders graduated in 2011-12 and were replaced by 221 kindergarten students.

  14. Historical Kindergarten Replacement

  15. Birth Rates and Birth-to- Kindergarten Survival Ratios

  16. Births from 2001-2012

  17. Fertility Rates • For women aged 15-50, Vernon fertility rate is 39 births per 1,000 women. • Sussex County is 48.5 births per 1,000 women. • NJ is 64.3 births per 1,000 women. • Vernon (82 per 1,000) below county (86.1) and state (100.4) for women aged 20-34, when most women have their children.

  18. Age Pyramid - Vernon Township

  19. Age Pyramid – New Jersey

  20. Housing Growth • Potential exists for 167 new housing units (same as last report). Only two developments have started construction. • Largest proposed development is by Glenwood Management: 132 apartments and condos. • Student yields obtained from Rutgers University Center for Urban Policy Research (CUPR). • Potential exists for 88 public school children from new developments. • 52 COs issued from 2007-2012. Only 13 issued in last 4 years.

  21. COAH • COAH (affordable housing): Projected growth share is 389 units to be completed by 2018. • Legal challenge exists to COAH’s computation of projected growth share, which may change the obligation.

  22. Baseline Enrollment Projections 2013-14 to 2017-18

  23. Baseline Enrollment Projections by Grade Configuration

  24. Projected Kindergarten Replacement

  25. School Capacity Enrollment in 2012-13 Difference Enrollment in 2017-18 Difference Walnut Ridge (PK-1) 611 514 +97 499 +112 Cedar Mountain (2-4) 563 791 +387 693 +485 Rolling Hills (2-4) 615 Lounsberry Hollow (5-6) 680 562 +118 459 +221 Glen Meadow (7-8) 877 565 +312 451 +426 VTHS (9-12) 1,432 1,208 +224 938 +494 Capacity Analysis

  26. Conclusion • Enrollment is projected to be 2,996-3,040 students in 2017-18, a loss of 600-644 students from the 2012-13 enrollment of 3,640 students. • Decline in enrollment appears to be due in part to negative kindergarten replacement. • Projected negative kindergarten replacement ranges between 39-116 students per year for the next 5 years.

More Related